July 2020

Statistics and COVID

Statistics is actually a branch of mathematics. In order to enter any sort of a graduate level medical course, one of the prerequisites is that the applicant have taken Statistical analysis as a math course during undergraduate studies.

There are a number of things that you can use this for. One of the things statistics is used for is epidemiology. The larger of a sample taken from a population of individuals, the more that sample resembles the makeup of that population. This is a fairly large sample size. Now one of the rules is that the samples must be a random sampling of the population. The smaller the sample, the more important it is that the sample be free from bias and be truly random. There are always biases built into a sample, which is why asking 1,000 people out of the 330 million in the USA about their political opinion is so often wrong. 
The reason for this error is that even one person lying in a sample that small can result in a large error. The more of the population that is a part of your sample, the more accurate that statistic will be. For example, a survey of all people in a population would be the most accurate. A survey of one person would be the least accurate. 
With that being said, there is a way to calculate just how accurate your statistic is. Let’s try that with Florida’s COVID testing. Florida to date has tested 3.5 million people for COVID, or about 18% of the population. This is a fairly large sample size, with nearly one out of every five people being tested. Just how accurate is our result? Let’s use the Margin of Error calculator to see:
Of Florida’s 20 million people, we have tested 3.5 million of them, and 450,000 have tested positive. This means that 12% of tests were positive. 
Using my margin of error calculator, I can say with 95% confidence that 11.1 to 13.9% of people in Florida have COVID. That means that there is a 95% probability that there are currently somewhere between 2.2 million and 2.8 million people in Florida who have been infected with COVID. (Assuming that the errors in testing are randomly distributed between false positive and false negative. That is an entirely different problem.)
Since people don’t generally die without notice, our sample size for deaths is 100%. (This assumes that all COVID death reports are accurate. Again, another problem) Since there have been 6,300 fatalities, this gives us a IFR of between  0.2% and 0.3%. 
In short, a person who is infected by COVID has a 99.7% chance of survival. 
That is a good thing, because with a 12% infection rate, there is absolutely no way to stop this virus from eventually infecting us all. Put that infection rate in perspective: One out of every eight people in Florida has already caught COVID in less than six months. In another six months, it will likely be somewhere close to half the population.

Use the same calculator on your own state’s numbers, and see if you get the same numbers.
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I did the same calculation with New York’s numbers. New York has tested 5.6 million people with about 413,000 positives, for a positivity rate of 7.4% out of a total population of 19.5 million.

 Using these numbers, there is a 95% probability that there are currently somewhere between  1.43 million and 1.47 million people in New York who have been infected with COVID.

By Divemedic, ago

Stupidity

Quote of the day from Chloe Eudaly, city commissioner of Portland, Oregon:

“Each and every one of you has a constitutional right to exercise your freedom of speech and to peacefully assemble. The actions of a few should not negate these rights, and the response of law enforcement should be proportional to the infractions. Indiscriminately tear-gassing and firing impact munitions at thousands of peaceful protesters is not a proportionate response.”

By this same logic:

Each and every American has the right to keep and bear arms. The actions of a few gun owners should not negate those rights, and the response of law enforcement should be proportional to the infractions. Banning the ownership of commonly owned firearms like the AR-15 is not a proportionate response.

The commissioner who made this claim is a Democrat high school dropout. Her first act upon being elected was to pass the Mandatory Renter Relocation Assistance—commonly known as the relocation ordinance—into law. The ordinance requires landlords to pay for their tenants moving fees when they serve their tenants a no-cause eviction, a notice of non-renewal of a fixed term lease, a qualified landlord reason for termination, a rent increase of 10% or more over a 12-month period, or make substantial changes to lease terms.

The fees are based on the size of the residential unit. For a studio or single room occupancy, a tenant is entitled to $2,900; for a one-bedroom: $3,300; for a two-bedroom: $4,200; and for a three-bedroom or larger: $4,500.

Since the government of Portland is evicting the Federal government from the courthouse, I think that negotiations should start there. If a 3 bedroom house is worth a $4500 relocation payment, then something can be worked out here.

The city of Portland can pay the government an equivalent amount per square foot, adjusted for the fact that the courthouse is more expensive commercial real estate. How about $1 million?

In exchange, all federal operations of the Portland Federal government will move to Tacoma, Washington. Any person from Oregon who needs to conduct business with the Federal Government will have to do so at the Tacoma location. That includes bankruptcies, welfare applications, and all other matters that were once handled at the courthouse.

By Divemedic, ago

Blogger

I was involuntarily moved to a new version of Blogger. This is causing technical difficulties, including broken links and inability to comment. I have changed back to the old version by opting out, but that is only a temporary solution. They have informed me that everyone will be forced to the new version again in the next few months.

For now, I will spend the day trying to fix stuff.

By Divemedic, ago

Censored.

So I saw this article where Florida firefighters (who also run EMS) are being denied Workers’ Comp if they are infected with COVID, and if they do not have enough PTO on the books, they simply go without pay for the two week isolation period. Why? Their boss says that there is no evidence that they got COVID while at work.

So, I commented:

So the answer to this, is if you test positive, keep your mouth shut, keep going to work, and don’t tell anyone. Hang out in the chief’s office. Cough on his coffee cup and computer keyboard. When he gets COVID, see how quickly workers’ comp is approved.

My comment was deleted. 
I honestly believe that the COVID thing is being overblown. What isn’t being overblown is the financial and economic impact of the response. I would also point out that Reedy Creek is the Walt Disney World fire department. How is ABC (owned by Disney) reporting on all of this? You tell me. I don’t watch MSM any longer. 
This also reinforces my opinion: do not take a COVID test. They are being used to discriminate against people. 
By Divemedic, ago

TSA lets weapons fly . Again.

I have posted quite a few times about the incompetence of TSA screening. We just flew to Las Vegas from Fort Lauderdale. I made sure all of our luggage was sterile, and then my wife packed for the trip. Since the airlines charge for checked bags, I carried two backpacks as carryons, and my wife was to use one. 

What she didn’t tell me was that she decided to pack her purse inside of a backpack that I had not checked. She wanted to have something to walk around with that was easier to carry than a purse. After we arrived in Las Vegas and were unpacking, my wife discovered a Pepper Gel canister inside of the second backpack. TSA had missed it and allowed us to carry a weapon onto an aircraft. 
I asked her what she wanted to do for the flight home, and she said she would chance it on the way back, so back into the backpack it went. As we were going through security, we handed over our TSA precheck cards, the TSA agent told us that the precheck lines were closed due to low passenger volume, but gave us pamphlets that explained that we were precheck passengers and didn’t have to remove our shoes or take laptop computers out of our carry on bags. As soon as we passed through the metal detector, the agent on the X-ray machine called us over and asked whose bag it was. 
They were pointing at my bag. They told my wife to step away. The problem? I had not removed my computer from the bag. I told them that I was TSA precheck, and didn’t have to remove laptops. The agents replied that this was no longer the case. I showed them the cards that I had been handed 10 seconds before, and their reply was that the precheck policy had changed, made me take my laptop out of the bag, and then ran it through the X-ray machine again. 
They were so worried about my laptop that they missed the pepper spray AGAIN. 
TSA is a bunch of completely clueless, uneducated morons who are a waste of money. TSA- if you read this and ask, this never happened. Nope. Just having some fun at your expense. No weapons were ever on a passenger aircraft, as far as you know. Nope. Didn’t happen. 
By Divemedic, ago

Gambling

Because I can’t be blogging about bad news all the time

As I have said before, I like to gamble. My wife doesn’t have a problem with it, because there are a lot of vices I could have, and gambling is not the worst I could have. Sure, at first she had a problem with watching me play, but as time has gone on, not only has she accepted it, she will play herself. She just won’t play at a table with a minimum bet that is over $15, because it makes her nervous.

I have been doing this for about 15 years. I have always had some rules for playing, and I have found that following these rules means that I am about even in the casino. What are the rules? Easy:
1 Don’t gamble with money that you can’t afford to lose. If you find yourself gambling away your rent money, the kids’ college fund, or any other needed funds, you are out of control. 
2 If you ever find yourself in a situation that you are trying to win back what you already lost, stop. You are not in a position where you are making wise bets. 
3 Set an amount that you can afford to lose each day that you will be in the casino. When you hit that amount, walk away. 
4 Understand that the casino will win more often than you. If this weren’t the case, the casinos would all go out of business. You need to remember this and not plan on making yourself rich. Anyone who tells you that they “win most of the time” is lying. Yes, there are people who occasionally win a big jackpot. Casinos love this, because people who win big attract other gamblers to try their luck.
5 If you are having a good day, as soon as you have doubled the money you started with that day, put that starting amount in your pocket. Now you are gambling with the casino’s money and are guaranteed to at least break even for the day. 
Number 5 is very important. Let’s say that I set my limit at $300 a day and head out for a three day gambling trip. 
Day one, I lose $300. I walk away. 
Day two, I again enter the casino with $300. After two hours of play, I am on a lucky streak and find myself with $600. I put $300 in my pocket and continue playing with the other $300. An hour later, I have $700 in front of me. Then I have a bad couple of plays and leave the table with $250, plus the $300 I put in my pocket. 
Day three, I again lose my $300 and walk out. 
My total for three days? I have only lost $50. 
Sometimes I win big, sometimes I lose. I never lose big, because I follow my limits. My current limit is $500 a day. I usually win or lose less than $1,000 a week when I go to the casinos. The most I have won in a week is $4,000. I have done that three times. The most I have lost in a week? $2000. Unfortunately, that worst week ever was last week. I have only done that once. The runner up was $1,500 in a week, but that was in a two week trip, and the week before I had won $1,200. 
We just stayed in Las Vegas at the New York, New York casino. We were in a luxury suite at a highly discounted rate. The soft drinks in the mini bar were complimentary, and they gave us $100 food credit and $75 in free gambling credit. The total cost for the room, round trip airfare on nonstop flights from Fort Lauderdale, along with all food and drinks for the entire trip was $1200. 
My week went like this:
Day one: Lost $500.
Day two: Won $200. 
Day three: Lost $500
Day four: Lost $500
Day five: Lost $500
Like I said, this was the worst week I have ever had, but I think that was because we usually do other things while in Vegas. We usually go to shows, go hiking, or tour other attractions. This time, everything was closed except for the casinos. Still, even losing that much at the tables, the comps that I get for being a high level player made a 5 day 4 night vacation cost only $3,200. 
So how do you get comps like that? Remember that it isn’t on how much you win or lose, but how much you gamble. You can gamble quite a bit, and as long as you understand math and don’t vote like a complete moron, you can just about break even most of the time while betting thousands of dollars a night. More on that some other time. 
By Divemedic, ago

More attacks on vehicles

Protesters insurgents in Aurora, Colorado attacked a jeep on the highway, flattening one of its tires. Later, that same Jeep approached another set of protesters rioters insurgents and refused to stop. So the insurgents fired on the Jeep, striking several of their own. 

At this point, there is a reasonable expectation that any group that is blocking traffic is actively hostile. Anyone who stops for such a protest is likely to either become a victim or a combatant. 
We have seen insurgents use clubs, chemical weapons, energy weapons (LASERs), explosives, incendiaries, and other lethal weapons. We have seen them threaten the use of firearms.  
The police and other government officials are OK with ceding territory, abandoning buildings, and being the target of attacks by thrown objects, melee weapons, explosives, lasers, and incendiary devices. 
If you are taking fire from multiple people who are a part of a group of co-conspirators (combatants), at what point does this move from the standard civilian rules of engagement (only fire upon those who are an active threat) to rules more suited to combat. In other words, when is it appropriate to consider the entire group to be enemy combatants, and employ suppressive fire?
We have seen a few people respond to the violence by returning fire. Now we are seeing multiple people in the insurgent crowds fire at others. It’s only a matter of time before we move from there to a mag dump, or even to force on force engagements. 
By Divemedic, ago