Dorian has been a huge ball of suck and fail for the National Hurricane service. This storm has been incorrectly handled for the past week. Tuesday the forecast was that Dorian would be a strong tropical storm landfalling near Fort Lauderdale. By Friday, it was to have max winds of 130 mph. Saturday morning they were forecasting winds of 150, and then 155. The actual winds are over 185 mph. 
The forecast was for it to hit the Dominican Republic. It missed by over 200 miles and actually hit the US Virgin Islands. 

Even the NHC admits that they have an average error of 40 miles at 24 hours, and 60 miles 48 hours out. They are currently forecasting the Dorian to be less than 60 miles offshore with 140 mile per hour winds just 48 hours from now.

The forecast they were making 48 hours ago had the center of the storm being 45 miles more to the east than it actually is. A similar error in today’s forecast would put the storm ashore in Florida 48 hours from now. 

Similarly, the forecast 48 hours ago predicted the storm would have winds of 130 miles per hour at 1100 EDT this morning. Winds were actually 180 mph. 

With that in mind, I decided to move on and complete the checklist as if the storm were only 24 hours away. 

Portable 10kw generator and 20 gallons of fuel
Batteries charged
Propane and propane stove

Communications checked:
Cell phones
Hardwire Internet
Radios checked and programmed with local authorities frequencies:
HF and VHF HAM radio in house
VHF/UHF System Fusion Mobile in BOV
VHF/UHF portables

We have a week’s worth in the pantry before we even have to get into freeze dried food.

20 gals potable
Full bathtub for toilet flushing

check. ‘Nuf said.

We also have cards and board games to keep us busy when power goes out.

The 12 hour checklist is next, but I won’t do that until probably Monday night, if at all.

1 Shut down the NAS that I am using as the household file server, take out the mirrored hard drives, and place one in the gun safe, the other in the BOV.
2 Place BOB in BOV.
3 Ensure safe room has flashlights, chem lights, and other items.
4 Take pictures of the inside and outside of the house, to use as “before” pictures, in the event an insurance claim needs to be made.
5. All vehicles in garage

Categories: Uncategorized

1 Comment

SiGraybeard · September 1, 2019 at 7:01 pm

Right with you. We didn't put up the shutters, yet, but it's the heat of the day. I'll get started in an hour or two. Stay in the shade as much as possible.

The accuracy of the predictions is uncomfortable. At 48 hours out, I want them to peg the center to within +/- 5 miles. It's not like they don't have the most advanced supercomputers known to man, right? I know that on the fine scale, the eyes wobble a few miles, and eyewall replacement cycles happen, but why can't they predict that?

Again, the most advanced supercomputers ever, and multiple teams of scientists trying to solve the problem. Why is the state of the art advancing so slowly?

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