It looks like we are not going to get anything close to what they were predicting. It appears as though the storm went in about 60 miles further south than originally predicted. That means that it is crossing the state that much further away than they were telling us. The local news is forecasting our peak winds to be in about an hour, and it just isn’t happening.

The strongest gust so far has been 27 mph. It hasn’t even rained in this area for about 2 hours. My Internet is even back up. The winds have gradually shifted from easterly to northeasterly, meaning that we are now on the left side of the storm. That is, since the winds of a hurricane rotate around the center in a counter clockwise direction, we are now on the western semicircle of the storm.

At its peak, Ian’s hurricane force winds extended out 40 miles from the center. A 60 mile miss makes for a huge difference. I also don’t think that the 155 mile per hour thing is very accurate. It looks like sustained winds of 100 miles per hour or so is what was actually felt by real people on the ground, with gusts a bit higher.

Combine those two factors and we will escape this with a breezy, rainy night.

My sister, who lives in Apopka, says her power is out. My mother in Altamonte tells me the weather there is just light rain, with my daughter and grandchildren in Winter Garden reporting the same.

The people down there in Port Charlotte and Naples are getting hammered, and I wish them the best. I have some friends down there, and I hope they dodge much of the damage.

Just remember: prep for the worst that you will probably face, and anything less is a walk in the park. If you do your preps correctly, things should be boring. If things are exciting, you didn’t properly prepare.

Categories: Uncategorized


exAZ · September 28, 2022 at 11:35 pm

Good on ya. Being ready AND spared is a nice feeling. Thinking of making a t-shirt with your quote:

“If things are exciting, you didn’t properly prepare.”

Classic truth.

Angus McThag · September 28, 2022 at 11:39 pm

I discovered, during Irma, that the wind speed for the storm is measured at altitude and the surface wind speed can be considerably lower.

So 155 at the official altitude and 100 on the surface is kosher.

I don’t understand why they don’t explain this better.

Miguel GFZ · September 29, 2022 at 12:57 am

It seems the disater area was much narrowed than expected, but it got nailed bad from what little I am seeing.

As with Andrew, we won’t know till full daylight.

I am happy you guys are OK.

Elrod · September 29, 2022 at 8:48 am

RE: Port Charlotte – I really feel for those folks. They took it right between the eyes with Cat 4 Charley (2004) and now again with Ian.

Comments are closed.