There has been a discussion of Trump’s campaign occurring on the Blogs that I read over the past few days. Over at Uncle’s place, I had this to say:
Trump is doing well because the electorate is tired of getting a bunch of politicians who say one thing and do another. They want an outsider. The Republican party only has themselves to blame for this: people are sick of getting back sliding from the likes of Boehner.
Over on Borepatch’s blog, I added this:
As an aside, I also think that this is the same reason why Sanders was getting as many votes as he did.
The fact is this: Hillary is using her establishment contacts to garner “Superdelegates” and win the Democratic nomination by gaming the system. This will take all of the wind out of the sails of the Democrats. Remember that Obama and Bill Clinton both won the Presidency by energizing the youth vote, which Hillary does not have.
Obama beat McCain in the general election by getting 66% of voters who were under 30 years old, and getting 95 percent of the Black vote. Obama beat Hillary in the Primary by taking 57 percent of voters under 30 years old, by energizing the youth vote and getting a large voter turnout.
My prediction is that once Sanders, who has the youth vote in this election, loses the nomination, those voters will not bother to show up at the polls for the general election. We are already seeing signs of this happening with the low voter turnout as the primaries progress and Hillary takes the lead through gaming the system.
On February 1 in Iowa, Sanders won 70 percent more of the under 30 demographic and 22 percent more of the 30-44 age group than did Hillary. Voter turnout was record breaking with 180,000 Republicans and a large number of Democrats. Hillary lost the voters with 44 percent of the votes to Sanders’ 50 percent, but won the delegate count 23-21, thanks to Superdelegates.
In New Hampshire on February 9th, Sanders got 83% of voters under 30. A whopping 78% of voters who selected Sanders stated that this was their first election. Out of 246,000 voters, sanders received 60% of the vote. Republicans had about the same number of voters, with Trump winning 100,406 out of 289,000 voters.
In Nevada on February 23rd, only about 12,000 Democrats vote, with Hillary getting about 53% of the vote. The Sanders youth vote largely didn’t bother to show up. Nevada Democratic Party spokesman Stewart Boss estimated turnout at 80,000, falling short of the nearly 120,000 voters who turned out in 2008.
Why? Because Hillary already has 504 delegates to Sanders’ 71. It is lopsided, even though Sanders has won more than 61% of the 247,000 votes cast so far. If Hillary can hold on to take just 45 percent of the remaining delegates, she wins. As the youth vote sees that their guy isn’t going to win, they will become uninterested and stay home in ever increasing numbers.
Hillary is an insider, and anyone that remembers her as first lady is over 30 years old by now. Everyone who didn’t vote for Bill Clinton while still a teenager is now in their 40’s or older. She can’t claim to be the energetic newcomer any longer. Once Sanders is out of the picture, the title of newcomer goes to Trump.
This, in my opinion will lower the youth turnout and hand her the nomination. Once that happens, the young voters will stay home in significant numbers in the general election, and this will make Donald Trump our next President.