Florida has been reporting fewer new cases of COVID for the past few days. Politicians are claiming that this means the state is over the peak. Are they really over the peak, or is it just that they are testing fewer people?

The answer is found in the daily COVID report from the Florida Department of Health. (pdf alert) Here is page 2 of the report for April 15, 2020.

The rate for positive test results has been around 10.7%. The last four days has seen positive results between 11 and 13 percent. This means that the rate of positives remains unchanged. So why are there fewer cases being reported each day?

Look at the number of tests. For the past two weeks, an average of 10,906 people have been tested per day. For the past three days, the state has tested an average of 9,010 per day. This reduction in the number of total tests is still resulting in the same rate of positives, even though the number of new cases appears lower.

So it appears as though this is an illusion.

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Angus McThag · April 16, 2020 at 6:19 pm

It's been 10.x of people tested have been positive for two weeks.

I've been writing the daily tallies down.

The percentage of people hospitalized is in the 13-14.x range, once they've been tested and found positive.

We're seeing less testing because we're seeing fewer people who feel sick enough to get in line to be tested. That would, correctly, correspond to there being fewer cases.

Florida isn't testing people who aren't self selecting for the test out of illness or concern.

Angus McThag · April 16, 2020 at 6:26 pm

I found how they're getting their numbers. They're clumping the results on different days than the daily totals from their Data and Surveillance dashboard.

How you count the data matters and they're giving us two different counting methods.

Angus McThag · April 16, 2020 at 6:37 pm

The PDF you link to and the chart giving 12-13% results shows 2,938 more cases from 4-1 to 4-14 than any other source.

It's also showing 11,932 more tests in the same time period than any other source.

That's one hell of a discrepancy.

Miguel GFZ · April 16, 2020 at 7:41 pm

Deaths by Day have been decreasing according to a cute little graphic webpage, a full week so far.

However, till we don't have a full check on all assisted living facilities, I won't be confident


Divemedic · April 16, 2020 at 8:26 pm

– My source for the numbers is the official Florida Department of Health. It is more trustworthy than wherever you are getting your information.
– Much of the testing in Florida is being done on demand. There were two test centers just two miles from my house.
– In fact, the criteria for being tested is:
* Preexisting condition like diabetes or heart problems
* Health care workers
* People with any symptoms (cough without fever is good enough)
* People who may have been in contact with a confirmed case (self reported)


Angus McThag · April 17, 2020 at 2:07 am

We have three different OFFICIAL Florida government sources which disagree with one another.

We didn't make the measurements ourselves, so we cannot attach any veracity of one over the other than blind trust to untrustworthy government apparatchecks.

Divemedic · April 17, 2020 at 4:08 pm

What are the other two?

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