Florida has been reporting fewer new cases of COVID for the past few days. Politicians are claiming that this means the state is over the peak. Are they really over the peak, or is it just that they are testing fewer people?
The answer is found in the daily COVID report from the Florida Department of Health. (pdf alert) Here is page 2 of the report for April 15, 2020.
The rate for positive test results has been around 10.7%. The last four days has seen positive results between 11 and 13 percent. This means that the rate of positives remains unchanged. So why are there fewer cases being reported each day?
Look at the number of tests. For the past two weeks, an average of 10,906 people have been tested per day. For the past three days, the state has tested an average of 9,010 per day. This reduction in the number of total tests is still resulting in the same rate of positives, even though the number of new cases appears lower.
So it appears as though this is an illusion.