First, the Navy publishes the location of a boomer in the Arabian sea. Now, just two weeks later the US lets the world know that there is a boomer in the Med. This is a huge threat to the Russians. A Trident II SLBM on a depressed trajectory could travel 1,850 kilometers in roughly 7 minutes. This means that a US Ohio class submarine would be able to hit Moscow from the Mediterranean in less time than the Russian command structure can react.

The presence of SLBMs in the Mediterranean and Arabian seas is a significant provocation, as their missiles can be launched in depressed trajectories at these short ranges, reducing flight times to the point that they can arrive at their targets before Russian systems have time to react and launch a counter strike. This move is not for deterrence, having SLBMs so close to their targets is more of a first strike tactic.

Picture three submarines launching as many as 900 nuclear warheads at your command and control facilities, bomber bases, and missile silos. All of the warheads would strike within 7 minutes of breaking the surface of the ocean. You know that it takes 10 minutes to launch your own missiles in return. What steps would you take in response?

Make no mistake, this is a provocation. It’s like Biden is trying to start a nuclear war on purpose.

Categories: Military


Brian_E · November 1, 2022 at 10:46 pm

‘Like’ he’s trying to start a nuclear war on purpose? Uh – yeah.
More like he’s trying to provoke one – and hoping that he and his cronies will survive. As someone that lives *just* outside the blast radius of Mordor on the Potomac, and *usually* (but not always – weather dependent) outside the primary fallout plume, I’ve taken to doing what I can to prep for such as this, but building a deep bunker stocked for a year isn’t one of them (HOA issues aside). Unfortunately. I’m also not in a position to move farther out of range. So – I get to hope that we don’t get to do a ‘IRL – Nuclear Apocalypse’ scenario, after things get even worse than they are now (economically, supply chain, lawlessness), should we take a strike just about anywhere on the East coast. Yep – my budget for antacids has gone up.

exile1981 · November 1, 2022 at 11:17 pm

This goes beyound poking the bear and into poking the bear while your friend drop kicks its cubs. Its the sort of provocation the bear can’t and won’t ignore.


Sarin · November 1, 2022 at 11:27 pm

It gets worse… Add in the two Washington post/AP articles from last week confirming boots on the ground ostensibly for “weapons cache inspections” and its provocation after provocation.

Dollars to doughnuts one of them is injured or KIA, then all bets are off.

Aesop · November 2, 2022 at 1:02 am

Vlad’s been doing all the nuclear threat-poking to this point, despite copious numbers of indicators that his course of action was ill-advised. Vlad has resisted common sense most resolutely.

The current deployments are letting Vlad know that if he pops even one nuke, he may get the full load back, right in the face, before he knows what hit him, or can do anything about it.
It makes use of nukes – for him – an all-or-nothing gambit, making any use guaranteed suicide. Which I gather is exactly the point.

Deterrence is definitely risky when both sides have loaded weapons, but when one sides keeps threatening to draw, pointing a cocked shotgun at his face may be seen by sane heads as the only way to get his full attention, with the obvious question being “Just how insanely stupid are you prepared to be?”

MAD contains more than one way to skin that cat.

It also bears noting that the message remains clear that if Vlad returns all his forces to their status quo ante positions and ends this invasion, those subs can sail back into farther waters just as quickly as they moved into near waters. He can thus lose face, or lose his ass. Dealer’s choice.

The only thing that makes this dangerous at this level is Vlad’s continued intransigence and belligerence, as has been the case from the start.

The problem at the operational level is that now that the Ukes have seen that Vlad can be ass-kicked conventionally for weeks on end, they probably won’t agree to anything less than getting back the stolen Crimea as well, before they’ll consider a settlement.

Heads Ukraine wins, tails Vlad loses.
The best way for Vlad to deal with a handful of turd like that is not to have picked it up in the first place. Even if Vlad doesn’t (or doesn’t wish to) realize that yet, his inner circle has got to be getting the message with painful clarity.

It’s definitely brinksmanship*, but when one side jumps headfirst into shit, they had to expect it wouldn’t end well for them.

* Which begs the question of “Who’s really running things on our side?” It sure as hell isn’t Emperor Stumblefuck Poopypants. So…the NSC? the JCS?? Who???

Jay Dee · November 2, 2022 at 5:24 am

Why is there a boomer in the Med? For one thing, the Med lacks deep water for Boomers to hide. The second is that with the range of missiles like the Trident II, there’s no need to be this close to combatants. Must be one of those woke military decisions.

BobF · November 2, 2022 at 6:05 am

I don’t see it as a poke, rather as a warning that if the bear attacks he will regret it. HOWEVER, placement right there in the Med is unnecessary and foolhardy, unless Biden thinks Russia is not smart enough to realize the same thing if the boomer were a safer, for the boomer, distance away.

And the whole thing hinges on if Putin really believe whoever pulls Biden’s puppet strings will actually have him do it. After all, these are the same people who got him to basically invite an invasion as long as it was only a little bit.

Dear God, we are at the mercy of fools, two up front and innumerable others behind the black curtains.

none · November 2, 2022 at 4:52 pm

Who’s to say that Putin doesn’t have nuclear launch capability right off our Atlantic coast and he’s not talking about it.

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