Show Your Work

A few days ago, I promised that I would post more about crime and race to support my contention that blacks are largely unsuited to following the law in a civilized society.

As I said yesterday, science is about following the evidence, wherever it leads. Sometimes the place that the evidence takes us to is inconvenient or flies in the face of our beliefs. The three most reliable evidence of race and crime to my knowledge are the National Crime Victimization Survey, the U.S. Justice Department Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that are based on that survey, and somewhat less reliably, the FBI’s Universal Crime Report (UCR). The NCVS surveys a large group of people about their experiences with crime victimization, so it is not based on what is reported to the police and what the police do with it. The Uniform Crime Reports is based on data from police departments, and is thus generally a less reliable measure of actual crime.

Let’s take a look at these sources and see where that evidence leads us:

We will begin by taking a look at the data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ Race and Ethnicity of Violent Crime Offenders and Arrestees, 2018, with regard to rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault, crimes that are referred to as “Nonfatal Violent Crime.”

When you look at this, you would think that Whites account for more violent crime than other races, until you account for the fact that whites are 60% of the US population, and blacks are only 13% of the population. I have posted numerous times about the statistical likelihood of blacks committing murder and homicide. In fact, the evidence is overwhelming and pervasive to the point that I could not find a single reputable source making a claim otherwise.

This poses the question if people of color live in more violent communities or if the local brand of justice is inherently selective. Experts have long been debating this matter.    

• Around 2.5% of the US black male population was in prison by the end of 2016. 
• 2,417 per 100,000 US black male residents were incarcerated by the end of 2016. 
• There were 467,000 sentenced black male prisoners and 20,400 black female prisoners in the US in 2016. These figures exclude blacks with Hispanic origins and those with sentences that are one year or less. 
• In 2015, 59% of black prisoners sentenced to more than a year in prison were detained for a violent crime.  
• 18-19-year-old black males are 11.8 times more likely to be incarcerated than white males belonging to the same age group. 
• Black males 65 years and above are 4.4 times more likely to be incarcerated than white males belonging to the same age group. 
• In 2016, 34% of black inmates were doing time for public order offenses. 
• While blacks and Hispanics comprise about 32% of the US population, they accounted for 56% of the US prison population in 2015. 
• Blacks are five times more likely to be incarcerated than whites. 
• If blacks and Hispanics share the same incarceration rate of whites, the prison population will decrease by 40%. 
• As of 2001, one in three black males born in the said year would likely face a prison sentence in his lifetime. 
• As of 2016, 48.3% of prisoners serving life and virtual life sentences are black. 

Even the left acknowledges that blacks are arrested and convicted of crimes at far higher rates than are whites. They attribute this to a criminal justice system that is racially prejudicial by claiming that whites and blacks commit crimes at the same rate, but blacks are being arrested and convicted at much higher rates than are whites. I reject that for one simple reason: That isn’t what the evidence shows.

In order for this claim to be true, cities that have higher white populations and are otherwise of similar in population density would have similar crime rates to those with higher black populations. That isn’t the case. In fact, the 6 largest cities in the US with the highest murders per capita so far in 2022 are New Orleans, Baltimore, Birmingham, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cleveland. All cities with a high percentage of their population being black.

This is why 28% of the residents of the USA are responsible for 53% of the homicides, with the 10 largest cities in the US having 20% of the homicides. Those ten cities are: New York with 333 killings, Chicago 415, Detroit 332, Philadelphia 246, Los Angeles 578, New Orleans 150, Baltimore 234, St Louis 159, Washington DC 104, and Indianapolis 135 means that of the approximately 14,000 murders in the US in 2014, nearly 2700 of them- about 20%- occur in just those ten cities.

In short, it’s been reliable data in this nation for decades: majority black neighborhoods are crime ridden enclaves. If blacks and whites were committing crimes at the same rate, then black and white cities would have similar crime rates. That is demonstrably not the case, therefore black and white crime rates are NOT the same.

Anyone with evidence to the contrary, please provide it. I am however, going to ask that you provide more than “Nuh, uh. You are wrong you racist.” I have shown my work. You show yours.

If a person cares about this country and the people in it, you must care about ALL of the people in it, even the minority groups like blacks. If you want to improve the nation and its people, then you have to first admit where the problems are. If you are going to do something to fix the black crime problem (and there IS one) then you have to do more than simply say that blacks aren’t committing crimes at a higher rate than all other demographics and claim that it’s just whites are being racist. That isn’t going to fly.