Head in the sand policy of Osceola County

Florida Law Enforcement agencies have long followed a policy of denying the existence of gangs in the state, even though it is at odds with the opinion of the Florida Attorney General’s office [pdf alert] Florida police agencies say gang members use any information released about the crimes they commit to glamorize their lifestyles and attract new members. The Osceola County Sheriff’s Office generally follows that policy.

That policy, it seems, is failing.Hardly a day goes by when there is not a reported shooting in the Central Florida area, and many other violent crimes go unreported. Due to the long standing policy of ignoring gang related crimes, it is impossible to get an accurate picture of gang related crime in the area, but I can tell you from personal experience that it is growing.

The frequency of gang related graffiti is growing, as is the frequency of gang member sightings. The Outlaws Motorcycle gang has a clubhouse not far from where I live. A couple of friends of mine were recently riding their motorcycles and were stopped by five Outlaws, who told them that no one is allowed to ride motorcycles in the area as a part of any motorcycle riding club, unless that riding club paid dues to the Outlaws. They then demanded that my friends remove the leather jackets, and pay a fine of $50 cash on the spot. Outnumbered 5-2 by armed gang members, they paid.

The Latin Kings have staked out Poinciana as their territory, as well as parts of Kissimmee. The Bloods own other parts of Kissimmee. Saint Cloud has problems with white gangs like the Aryan Brotherhood. Orlando has similar gang and violent crime problems.

Your odds of being a victim of a violent crime in Osceola County are 1 in 100. In Orange County, the odds double to 1 in 50.Obviously, there are things you can do to reduce those odds. Don’t go into bad neighborhoods like Pine Hills (aka Crime Hills), Paramore, McLaren Circle, Waterway Village, and other notoriously unsafe areas. Don’t be a gang member, sell drugs, or engage in other highly risky behavior.

It is more likely that you will be a victim of a violent crime than involved in a car crash or a house fire with a fatality.You don’t hesitate to wear a seat belt, or own smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, and other safety devices, yet the odds favor your using a firearm to defend your life more often than any of those other items.

Preparedness

Hurricane season approaches. Hard times are coming. As we discussed in our last post, the government advises us all to have three days of supplies, so that we can be self sustaining until the cavalry arrives. I have a disaster plan, and I keep updating it as I change my opinion or as my needs change.

This is not about being a survivalist or about surviving. Surviving is a part of living, but surviving is not the main goal, it is merely a path to our goal. This is about being able to survive a disaster and being able to recover as much of your life as possible. We must survive, recover, and rebuild.

Recovery is the area where most people spend the least effort, but where a little preparing goes a long way. You need to safeguard the documents and other things that we need to live in the 21st century: Documents, family photos, licenses, certifications, and other important records. We also need to have meeting places (rally points) and other essential details worked out in advance. For more on that, see this post.

Now we can start thinking about supplies and kits. Remember that preparedness is not a kit. Don’t think you can put a kit together, and you are all set. The kit is a means to an end. Here are the categories that I recommend for a kit:

Records: The aforementioned documents, photographs, and other needed items. I include a moderate amount of cash on hand ($300 or so) in this category.
First Aid: Medications, drugs, bandages, disinfectants, etc. Nothing elaborate. Simple is better here.
Heat and cooking: You can live on cold canned goods and MREs, but they are simply not tolerable for more than a day or two. Hot meals are best.
Light: Flashlights, lanterns, fire, batteries for them, chemlights, and other ways of creating light.
Tools: People are tool users. Screwdrivers, knife, hammer, hatchet, etc.
Communications: There are many ways to communicate. Cell phones, radios, flags, spray paint, chalk or grease pencil markings left on buildings, signs stapled to telephone poles, etc.
Food and water: Obvious. From half liter bottles of water to reverse osmosis, MREs to farming, we need to consider short and long term food and water needs.
Shelter: Tents, homes, hotels, tarps, even your vehicle. Any way to get out  of the weather.
Security: Weapons, cameras, sensors, rotating watches.
Energy: Solar, fire, electric, generators, etc. Anything that helps us power our equipment or our selves that is not cooking or heating related.

The exact contents of those categories will vary depending on the length of time we are to be self sufficient, our finances, the amount of space we have for storage, and the disaster we want to be prepared for. My two week hurricane kit is in yesterday’s post.

Prepping

The government advises us all to have three days of supplies, so that we can be self sustaining until the cavalry arrives. From my personal experiences during my responses to various disasters, I can tell you that three days is a minimum. If you are further away from a distribution point than average, it may be more like 4 or 5 days. More if the disaster is more serious.

So, I have put together a bunch of supplies to get me through a disaster. Here is what I have come up with:

Food: I have 8 cases of MREs, and 2 cases of Mountain House freeze dried meals. I also have 3 cases of freeze dried meats and eggs. Round that out with a couple of cases of canned goods (tuna, soup, veggies) and I have enough non perishable food for 172 people meals. That is enough food for 6 people for 9 days. Two weeks if I stretch it.

Food prep: I have propane cooking equipment and enough propane to cook 3 meals a day for a week.

Shelter: Other than the house, I have 3 two man tents, and tarps to make more lean-tos.
Communications: In addition to cell phones, I have 4 FRS radios and 2 HAM radios in the 2 meter band.
Power: I need to work on this. I am thinking about solar chargers for the radios and flashlight batteries. I don’t need to run the whole house just yet.
Water: I have 30 gallons (at one gallon per person/day, this will last 6 people for 5 days) of water containers, and we can and will fill 2 bathtubs for non drinking water. We can boil that water for cooking if needed. 
I have ample firearms for security, and plenty of ammo.
There are also medical supplies, lights, and other supplies. 

Even though there are only two of us here, I have enough to supply 6 people for two weeks. Longer if I want to cut it down to subsistence rations. Living in hurricane country, it is just prudent.

Evacuation groundwork

Continued from part one
The first thing you need to do in order to have a successful evacuation is to prepare. I fully believe in the seven P’s: Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance. To really prepare, your significant other MUST be on board, but don’t force it. My convincing the wife to get into preparedness started as a “Hurricane Kit” and now the wife is as into it as I am. Don’t overdo it, or the wife will think you are nuts and will not help you.

When you evacuate, the event will be much smoother if you can safeguard your life and not be living as a refugee for the next few years. To do this, we need our vital documents. This is how I did it.

I got three 4 GB USB thumb drives. You can get them for about 5 bucks each. I installed a strong encryption program (TrueCrypt- it works, and the price is right- free) on the drive, with a 1 GB partition. Instructions come with the software. I put a copy of the software on the drive, so I could use it from any computer that I could find.

In that encrypted partition, I put a copy of my Quicken file, along with scans of birth certificates, licenses, certifications, transcripts, credit cards (front and back), medical histories, credit records, diplomas, and any other documents I could think of. In the remaining unencrypted space, I put copies of things like pictures I didn’t want to lose, and other keepsakes that were not sensitive in nature.

I then put a copy on my keychain, and one each in my glove box, and my wife’s glovebox. (I later bought a fourth, and store it at work in my locker). I update them as needed, including a monthly update of the Quicken file. That way, if I evacuate due to a Katrina style disaster, I have everything I need to get started rebuilding my life.

Then, we plan out our rally points. The closest could be the mailbox in the front yard. Then, in order of distance, my friend’s house (1 mile away), her mom’s house (5 miles away), my office (12 miles), a friend’s house (40 miles), her dad’s house (200 miles), and a certain undisclosed hotel that is about 230 miles away. Depending on the disaster and its scope, we can head for any one of these places.

The 90 second plan is an emergency evacuation plan where there is not much time to get out- like a house fire. Emergencies that are high risk and short time are what this is for. This plan involves nothing more than us each grabbing a pet, our keys, and (optional) a sidearm and getting the heck out of the house. We meet at a rally point in the front yard, or if that is dangerous, we head for one of the next two closest ones.

Shelter in place, or run?

Anyone who is into personal preparedness has go to have a contingency plan. A plan for what, you ask? Whatever happens. One of the best tools in your arsenal is the ability to get the heck out of dodge. There was a man at the World Trade Center by the name of Rick Rescorla. If you are not familiar with the man known as the “man who predicted 9/11,” you can go read about him later, because he is not the subject of this post, but I will say that I admire the man. He single handedly saved 2,700 lives on 9/11 by knowing when to get out, and he gave his own life in the effort.

I was watching a show about him on 9/11, and I was reminded of what happened to folks in the South Tower of the WTC on that day when they tried to evacuate after the first plane struck the North Tower: as they were trying to evacuate, the police herded them back into the building, claiming that the untouched South Tower was safe. They were performing an act called “shelter in place.” Many people returned to their offices, only to be killed when the second plane struck the South Tower 18 minutes later. Those who ignored the cops and left, lived to see another day.

Shelter in place is not put into motion for the benefit of the people being sheltered. Primarily, it benefits the people who are charged with controlling the disaster, who do not need large amounts of refugees underfoot, getting in the way of rescue efforts. Yes, there are times when it is safer to to stay put where all of your supplies are, but there are also times to run. It is up to you to determine when that is, and have a plan to do so. Remember that hesitating will mean you are going to be in the middle of the fleeing herd, or possibly trapped in the disaster area, instead of being safe somewhere else.

When it is time to go, go. Don’t wait, don’t dally, and don’t hesitate. If your instincts are telling you to go, then go. The key to an orderly evacuation, as opposed to a panicked flight is easy: preparation. The first thing is to have criteria that you will use to determine when you will go, and when you will stay. Make it flexible, because when that time comes, it may be an event that you have not planned for.

Evaluate the disasters that will force you to consider evacuating, and rate them according to warning time and risk- with the ratings of low, medium, and high. This is the same system that emergency professionals use:

For example: A fire in your house is Little warning, high risk. A hurricane in Florida’s interior is long warning time, medium risk, but on the coast it may be high risk. Once we do that, we come up with plans for evacuating or dealing with the emergency, based on the time we have to evacuate and the severity of the disaster.

For example, in the event of a break in to our home while we are sleeping, we have plans to “shelter in place” in the bedroom and call 911. Anyone who enters the bedroom gets shot. That works for us, because the police have an average 6 minute response time in my city, and I can hold out for 6 minutes with the two handguns we have in the bedroom. I don’t need to take the risk of clearing the house, I will let the cops do it for me.

On the other hand, we evacuate for any hurricane above class 3 that is due to hit in my area. Being 50 miles inland means that the risk is one I can bear in my location for a three or less.

Our evacuation plans vary. We have four plans, each one named for the amount of time we have to execute it. These plans are: 90 second, 9 minute, 90 minute, 9 hour. The next post will deal with evacuation plans. In the hurricane example I just gave you, we would activate the 9 hour plan (the 9 hour plan includes taking the time to board up windows). The last time we considered evacuating, I boarded up the windows and pre packed my vehicle when we were 5 days from landfall. My neighbors thought I was nuts. I was the only boarded up home in the neighborhood, but had we decided to evacuate, I could have gotten out of here with the 9 hour plan fully executed in only 90 minutes.

More on that later in part 2