Two days ago, ADP released their monthly payroll report, saying that the economy lost 301,000 jobs during the month of January. Conservative Treehouse wrote a long article about this.

Reuters reported that U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in a year in January as soaring COVID-19 infections disrupted business operations, raising the risk of a sharp decline in employment that would deal a temporary setback to the labor market.

Now keep in mind that the ADP report counts all active workers as employed regardless of whether they are paid or not during the survey week. In the government report, people who are out sick or in quarantine and do not get paid during the survey period are counted as unemployed in the survey, even if they still have a job with their companies. This means that if there were a pandemic causing large numbers of otherwise employed workers to be out sick, you would expect that the government job numbers would be significantly lower than the ADP number, but that isn’t what happened.

Two days later, just this morning, the US government claimed that there were 467,000 jobs added to the economy in January, even though the unemployment rate increased from 3.9 to 4.0 percent. The government is claiming that the economy is growing at a rate of 6.9% per year.

So which report is to be believed?

Categories: economics


joe · February 4, 2022 at 3:06 pm

the one they tell you to believe… it’s all fake… everything from Russia to covid to job numbers… they think we are all stupid and sheep…

Big Ruckus D · February 4, 2022 at 5:00 pm

Believe this: right about now, at ADP headquarters, there is a cadre of govt goons delivering the message “nice place you got here, be a shame if anything happened to it.”. And just like that, ADP will henceforth deliver the sort of numbers the govt wants us to see.

    Bert · February 4, 2022 at 5:26 pm

    An aerospace engineer once told me
    “Numbers lie and liars love numbers”
    Smart guy, wish I could of had decades instead of years to learn from that one.

      Divemedic · February 5, 2022 at 11:12 am

      Numbers don’t lie. The people collecting them do.

Foggy Mountain Breakdown · February 4, 2022 at 6:54 pm

Some live off of mommygov with EBT, some have just walked away as ordered by Lord Humungus, some will contribute nothing to a system that plots their displacement and genocide.
Some have become the boy in the bubble due to the COV-LARP Great Hysteria.
Everything is fake and fraudulent in Chiquitastan and anything from official sources should be greeted with laughter with a box of rotten vegetables on hand for throwing at the podiums.

Matthew · February 4, 2022 at 9:33 pm

How odd that my 401k has shed a bit over 5% since the first of the year.
That’s my metric, FJB.

Jonathan · February 5, 2022 at 8:12 am

Don’t forget that the initial government numbers are estimates, including assumed seasonal variations. The government releases hard numbers for each month quietly about 2 months later, and these are often quite different than the highly publicized estimates.
Also, don’t forget that the official unemployment rate is a measure of people actively looking for a job, not everybody unemployed.
Statistics often don’t mean what they appear to, so it helps to look up ahwt each one is actually counting and whether it has changed recently.

Matthw W · February 5, 2022 at 3:53 pm

Remember doing the NObama years they quit counting people that stopped looking for work to make the numbers look better and every month they announced XXXXX new jobs, but then the next month they quietly adjusted those numbers down significantly?
Same shit, they are literally just blatantly lying and the media never asks questions.

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