I made the post about the rifle stand that is 600 yards from Trump’s aircraft, pointing out that a 600 yard shot on a moving person is MUCH more difficult to achieve than the 150 yard shot made against Charlie Kirk. I immediately got people coming on here talking about how a 600 yard shot is easy. I stand behind what I said, and I can show evidence as to why I think I am correct. As usual for this blog, I show my work.
Let’s start with this hit probability calculator from Bison Ballistics.
Let’s say that our would be assassin is armed with a 300 Win-Mag. Production rifles with a Sub-MOA guarantee are fairly few. Let’s use a Weatherby in the sub $1000 price range. We can use a 180 grain bullet, leaving the barrel at 3,000 fps. With that ammo, our shooter is good enough to make hits in the neighborhood of 1 MOA. That translates to 6 inch groups at 600 yards. We will assume that the shooter and the glass is good enough to perfectly get the best performance from this rifle and ammo combination. We will also assume that his standard deviation in muzzle velocity is +/- 40 fps.
The target is 2.1 MOA, or about 13″, wide (the size of a large man’s A-zone).
Weather at the Palm Beach airport is pretty standard: 83 degF, humidity is 74%, and winds are blowing at 4 mph from over the the shooter’s 2 o’clock. Barometer is 30.02 inches of mercury and steady. There is a slight 0.3 mph and 8 degree random variation in wind.
Let’s type all of that into the calculator, and see what we get. In all, I pushed that button 40 times. Out of 40 pushes, 16 of them hit the target. So a 40% hit rate. I think that we can agree that this is pretty good conditions for a shot like this, good rifle, ammo, weather, shooter, and in this calculator, the target isn’t moving.
Our shooter is going to have to make his hit with the first shot. Assume that the SS detail that Trump has now is the best that the SS has to offer, unlike the Pennsylvania shooting, when he was assigned DHS employees who were working overtime. Counter sniper and counter assault teams are going to do their best to ensure that a second shot doesn’t happen. So he will have to make a first shot count.
That’s a tough shot. Yeah, I know. Some guy is going to come on here and tell me how he is hitting a 2 inch circle at 600 yards while wearing a blindfold, using iron sights and factory ammo. Just like Lee Harvey Oswald made a head shot on a target in a moving limo from 85 yards with a ragged out Carcano (known for its 2 MOA accuracy). Now tell me that your average leftist can do the same.
25 Comments
TRX · October 21, 2025 at 9:24 am
I doubt the tree stand was intended for an assassination attempt. I think it was just harassment.
If you were serious, you’d use a portable tree stand, set it up fifteen or twenty minutes ahead of time – you know exactly when the plane is going to land, after all – shoot, and then abandon the stand and rifle and walk away. Though I highly doubt you’d successfully escape. Then again, they don’t seem to have a shortage of expendable patsies willing to do their dirty work.
BTW, wrt Oswald’s Carcano, the barrel and action were made by Mannlicher in Germany, with the rest of the bits and assembly being Italian. It was shooting American-made sporting ammunition.
Not a primary source, but I found a comment on Quora that quotes the Warren Commission report heavily, with details and images. The Commission had several shooters try to duplicate the shot using the rifle found at the scene; they were successful. https://www.quora.com/Was-Lee-Harvey-Oswalds-Italian-made-Mannlicher-Carcano-an-accurate-powerful-rifle-capable-of-inflicting-the-injuries-it-supposedly-did
Tsgt Joe · October 21, 2025 at 9:31 am
Though I cant shoot a rifle now ( shoulder replacement surgery) in my halcyon days a 600 yard shot at a moving target would have been a waste of bullets. A stationary target- just maybe, on a good day. I think those who are good at it forget how much work it took to get there.
Jen · October 21, 2025 at 9:47 am
Typo. Title.
Divemedic · October 21, 2025 at 12:00 pm
yep
Steve · October 21, 2025 at 11:34 am
600 yards is not your average hunter, nor is a $1000 rifle. But if you are a little careful, and know what you are doing, $1500 will get you a decent SPR.
Factory ammo is surprisingly consistent, at least within the same case. I tend to go with Black Hills, just because I have better results, but I checkweigh everything. Sure, the variation might be bullet or might be powder, but across a few boxes, I can usually find enough that are identical to the limits of my scale. And BH ammo rarely has blemishes of any kind, while it’s common for the big boys to have bullets that even to bare eyes are probably going to be fliers.
Does everyone do that? Of course not. Most have no clue, nor do they care. Brush deer are 50-100y, plains deer, 200y.
Old Maine Farmer · October 21, 2025 at 12:18 pm
A 50 BMG with great scope and seasoned shooter training for the event and distance could do it. What a nation of psychos we have become to have to even worry about such a thing.
Ed Wielenga · October 21, 2025 at 12:42 pm
We’re thinking about snipers but it’s 2025; more likely to be a drone being vectored in on the man.
Divemedic · October 21, 2025 at 3:09 pm
If it was a drone, a tree stand with a direct, unobstructed line of sight isn’t necessary.
Beans · October 21, 2025 at 1:24 pm
There are three times the President is stationary. Getting out of the limo. Getting to the stairs. At the top of the stairs. All three are known times where the President is still for at least 15 seconds. All three positions are easy to spot, easy to scope, easy to shoot
And 600 yards is not an unknown shot amongst those who shoot at sheep, elk, caribou or moose.
It’s not an easy shot for someone who has little training. But that’s not the point. The point is someone was setting up to shoot at the President. Even if he/she/it missed bigly, that’s still screwing with the President and still trying to assassinate him, and may end up with dead agents or a dead Baron or Melania (shooting at a group rather than a single person.)
And there’s still that rather large white and blue target known as AF1…
Remember, everyone said Roofboy couldn’t hit a target, until he did. Only Trump moving his head kept said Trump alive.
Remember, everyone said Golfcourseboy couldn’t hit a target with an SKS and a taped scope. Except that Brandon Herrera reproduced said gun and laughed about how easy and good it actually worked.
Remember, everyone said, as the author pointed out, LHO couldn’t hit JFK with a clapped out Carcano. Except the Carcano wasn’t clapped out, and Carcanos in decent shape are very good woods carbines for deer hunting at up to 200 yards.
And hasn’t someone been telling us (p)Antifa has been arming and training over the last few years? Wouldn’t ranged shooting with a decent hunting rifle be considered training?
Divemedic · October 21, 2025 at 3:08 pm
Again, I have never said it couldn’t be done. I said it was much more difficult than the shots already taken, and thus more likely to fail than not.
Beans · October 21, 2025 at 8:30 pm
Yet, like the current criminal injustice system, the process is the punishment. Taking potshots from a distance will, like the stupid shoe bomber, change everything.
William Ashbless · October 21, 2025 at 1:28 pm
Prone with a bipod or from a bench, 600 isn’t too hard for a qualified marksman. A tree stand, though? Perched up there I don’t think a shooter can get the utmost accuracy from his equipment or himself.
I think this is much ado about nothing.
Honk Honk · October 21, 2025 at 2:17 pm
The comrades have a shooter like that?
Rick T · October 21, 2025 at 2:40 pm
Joe Huffman’s annual Boomershoot event has reactive targets out at 600 yards and beyond. I wonder how many boomers are hit with cold bore shots at that range over the years.
Divemedic · October 21, 2025 at 3:10 pm
Didn’t say it can’t be done. I said it was difficult and more likely to fail than succeed. Is reading comprehension even a thing any more?
Rick T · October 21, 2025 at 3:18 pm
My question was to use a real-world shooting event to gauge the probability of success, not to question if it can be done at all. For all we know Joe’s shooters may have a lot of first-round hits at the outer targets.
Toastrider · October 21, 2025 at 4:15 pm
Maybe we’re not looking at this right.
600 yards from a tree stand, a rifle shot might be a bit much. But what about surveillance? Binoculars, telescope, etc? Studying to see if there are patterns in the President’s arrival and departure routines?
Something to worry about.
Danny · October 21, 2025 at 4:46 pm
Great analysis. I agree – a difficult shot that might be made if conditions lined up just right.
But we don’t know how the determined (skilled) assassin would approach the operation. It probably would be very different to say the least.
J J · October 21, 2025 at 6:23 pm
What’s the range and hit probability of a shoulder launched anti aircraft weapon?
Not that your average shitlib would be able to get something like that but who knows what other than people poured across the border while Biden administration was ignoring it.
Also, not saying that spot would be good to launch one, just thinking about possibilities other than a rifle.
Divemedic · October 22, 2025 at 4:55 am
AF1 has some pretty advanced anti-missile technology
@HomeInSc · October 21, 2025 at 9:08 pm
Not a sharpshooter like my Dad.
100 yards – yup
200 yards – good probability
300 yards – possibly, on a really good day
600 yards – how much ammo do I get?
Treeline is about 175 from my front porch so, adequate, but better is better. There is a range with 300 not too far away.
william anderson · October 22, 2025 at 7:37 am
When AMU received LHOs Carcano,they had to fabricate 2-.020 shims for scope to get it to hit the target at 50yds,2 screws were missing on scope mount and the rest were loose…Carcanos are and were a crap rifle.
Jonesy · October 22, 2025 at 3:52 pm
Biggest issue I see isn’t the distance or the hardware required. That stuff is important and it’s a tough shot. It’s that it’s an unsupported shot.
If I wanted to take a shot like that I’d want to do it prone from a bipod or rest. Shooting sticks? None of that looks possible in a tree stand on a tiny platform, sitting or standing.
Don't mind me. · October 23, 2025 at 10:22 am
All they have to do is hit the plane.
Where I live in the Northern Rockies, taking an elk at 400 yds is commonplace. Scopes with built in rangefinders extend that comfort zone to 800 yds.
Bear Claw · October 23, 2025 at 12:59 pm
Lots of wind on a tarmac/runway. Probably a harassment hoax.
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