Guns

I made the post about the rifle stand that is 600 yards from Trump’s aircraft, pointing out that a 600 yard shot on a moving person is MUCH more difficult to achieve than the 150 yard shot made against Charlie Kirk. I immediately got people coming on here talking about how a 600 yard shot is easy. I stand behind what I said, and I can show evidence as to why I think I am correct. As usual for this blog, I show my work.

Let’s start with this hit probability calculator from Bison Ballistics.

Let’s say that our would be assassin is armed with a 300 Win-Mag. Production rifles with a Sub-MOA guarantee are fairly few. Let’s use a Weatherby in the sub $1000 price range. We can use a 180 grain bullet, leaving the barrel at 3,000 fps. With that ammo, our shooter is good enough to make hits in the neighborhood of 1 MOA. That translates to 6 inch groups at 600 yards. We will assume that the shooter and the glass is good enough to perfectly get the best performance from this rifle and ammo combination. We will also assume that his standard deviation in muzzle velocity is +/- 40 fps.

The target is 2.1 MOA, or about 13″, wide (the size of a large man’s A-zone).

Weather at the Palm Beach airport is pretty standard: 83 degF, humidity is 74%, and winds are blowing at 4 mph from over the the shooter’s 2 o’clock. Barometer is 30.02 inches of mercury and steady. There is a slight 0.3 mph and 8 degree random variation in wind.

Let’s type all of that into the calculator, and see what we get. In all, I pushed that button 40 times. Out of 40 pushes, 16 of them hit the target. So a 40% hit rate. I think that we can agree that this is pretty good conditions for a shot like this, good rifle, ammo, weather, shooter, and in this calculator, the target isn’t moving.

Our shooter is going to have to make his hit with the first shot. Assume that the SS detail that Trump has now is the best that the SS has to offer, unlike the Pennsylvania shooting, when he was assigned DHS employees who were working overtime. Counter sniper and counter assault teams are going to do their best to ensure that a second shot doesn’t happen. So he will have to make a first shot count.

That’s a tough shot. Yeah, I know. Some guy is going to come on here and tell me how he is hitting a 2 inch circle at 600 yards while wearing a blindfold, using iron sights and factory ammo. Just like Lee Harvey Oswald made a head shot on a target in a moving limo from 85 yards with a ragged out Carcano (known for its 2 MOA accuracy). Now tell me that your average leftist can do the same.

Every so often, a set of statistics comes up where I can show evidence that it is likely false. Like this one:

Look at Florida. This claims that there are under 29% of households with a firearm in it. Let’s take a look at the actual numbers.

There are approximately 14.6 million adults over the age of 21 in Florida. About 2 million of them are ineligible for a concealed weapons permit because of criminal history, immigration status, domestic violence orders, etc.. There are 3 million people licensed to carry firearms in the state (including cops, retired cops, judges, and others), even though they aren’t required for concealed carry. This likely means CCW holders are underrepresented, but it’s the best proxy we have. Still, this means that roughly 24 percent of Florida’s eligible adult population has a CCW permit. Now assume that not all legal gun owners have a CCW permit, and not all people who are ineligible for a permit or gun ownership are without a firearm. (In other words, have a gun despite the fact that it is illegal for them to do so.)

This makes me believe that this number is not accurate. What likely happened was that a survey taker called random people and asked them “Do you have a gun in your house?” and the person said, “Nope, lost them all in a tragic boating accident during the last hurricane, when the gators ate them.”

Now extrapolate that to the three states where less than 10% of the households own guns: Hawaii, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. Do you think the numbers there are likely higher?

In researching this post, I also came across this interesting fact: There were 15 million hunting licenses issued in the entire US in 2018. At the same time, more than 21 million people have concealed weapons permits, even though the number of people with permits is dropping as more states become Constitutional Carry states. This indicates to me that gun culture 2.0, the move from guns being about hunting to guns being about defense, has taken over the entire gun culture.