A comment to my recent post about the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine was:
These uSA have no business in Ukraine. The comparison with the USSR’s attempt to put missiles in Cuba is apt.
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What is happening in the Ukraine is very important to the US and its defense. Let me explain how:
In 1994, the Soviet Union had just broken up, and one of the new nations was the Ukraine. Ukraine had on its territory the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal- an arsenal that was larger than the nuclear arsenals of Britain, France and China combined. There was a lot of concern at the time that one of these warheads would wind up in the wrong hands, and there was a lot of pressure on Ukraine for them to turn those warheads over to Russia.
To make this happen, Ukraine needed some reassurances against aggression. The Ukrainians asked for certain things, one of which was a security assurance that the United States and Russia would pay attention and respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, that there would be no use of force or threat of force against Ukraine.
Enter the Budapest Memorandum, which was signed on December 4, 1994. It now appears as though the countries who swore to honor Ukraine’s borders in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons are going back on their word.
Yet another example of the US being unwilling or unable to honor its international commitments. The world is watching.
There are a list of countries that have given up their nuclear weapons: Libya, South Africa, and now the Ukraine. Each of those governments were subsequently overthrown. What message does that send to other countries with nuclear aspirations? Iran, North Korea, Israel, Pakistan.
This to me is the opening of a new, more dangerous phase of nuclear proliferation. The possibility of a nuclear weapon being used is now dependent on whichever of those governments is the LEAST stable. What this means is that North Korea or Iran is likely to use a nuclear weapon in the near future.
Couple this with a feckless US president who has the intelligence of a potato. The situation in the Ukraine makes it all the more likely that we will see a nuclear exchange within the next 4 years. It would not surprise me to see Israel and Iran trade a couple of nukes before our next Presidential election. Even more worrisome is the possibility that the US winds up catching one of them.
15 Comments
JaimeInTexas · December 9, 2021 at 10:08 pm
Then the Maidan coup and the push for Nato membership.
Russia keeps surrounding Nato and uSA worldwide bases with Russia’s border.
When I voted for Trump, not going to war with Russia was one of the reasons.
Maybe these uSA ought to quit giving assurances to others.
Moral hazards comes to mind.
Divemedic · December 10, 2021 at 5:14 am
Yes, the US needs to stop signing treaties and offering to protect everyone. This places us in a position where we have to either go to war and sacrifice our own citizens to protect others, or we have to abrogate our commitments and make our word look like its worthless.
Brian_E · December 10, 2021 at 7:00 am
Seems to me that the ‘moral hazard’ is in trusting politicians. You can barely trust them to keep their word DURING any given administration – let alone from one to the next. At BEST, expect them to keep their word ONLY as long as it’s in their immediate best interest to – or that no one will call them out (I.e. – no consequences fir not keeping promises).
It’s gotten so bad that it’s notable, shocking even – when they KEEP their promises, not when they break them.
Jonathan · December 9, 2021 at 11:09 pm
Did Ukraine really give up all their nukes?
What are the chances that Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have either built nukes or have the components on hand to build them if needed?
I feel that we are on the cusp of more proliferation as international relationships change…
Divemedic · December 10, 2021 at 5:31 am
I think that they did. They had to. Even though the Ukraine had physical possession of the nukes, they didn’t have the codes for the Russian equivalent of the PAL links to use them, and didn’t have the money or technical know how to reengineer them into a usable state. That is why the US giving them promises to defend them was unnecessary.
We need to learn as a country to stop meddling. Not every situation in the world needs our input.
Skyler the Weird · December 9, 2021 at 11:34 pm
What will be the Berlin Wall falling event that signals the collapse of the U.S. World Order?
Divemedic · December 10, 2021 at 5:15 am
The abandonment of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Sunglasses At Night · December 9, 2021 at 11:35 pm
Nutty Nuland doesn’t care if WWIII erupts due to protecting their (CPUSA) Ukrainian cookie jar.
A mass depopulation event makes them giddy.
With the Weather Underground Government that we have now, nothing would be done if their fellow traveler comrades of the CCP formed a NATO style alliance in South America but yet Russia is expected to do nothing as NATO forces build up in their sphere of influence.
NA · December 10, 2021 at 1:17 am
I always enjoy your articles, but you’re hanging a lot on the Budapest Memorandum.
The U.S. Senate never voted on the Budapest Memorandum. It was not ratified by the Senate, which Article II of the Constitution requires. It may be symbolic, but it’s not binding.
Of course I agree with you about the rest (“a feckless US president who has the intelligence of a potato…”). Worse, the danger is that our trannified woke military gets stomped by the non-trannified, non-woke Russkies in a conventional engagement. So if things go hot, what remaining options does El Supremo the Feckless have?
Divemedic · December 10, 2021 at 5:18 am
What makes that memorandum important isn’t whether or not it is legally binding, but in how the other nations in the world view the US and its ability to honor commitments. The Ukraine acted on that memorandum, and are now going to pay for that. So did Afghanistan. Now Israel is looking at a Biden admin and the pressure that they are under from the rest of the Democrat party and you know that they have to be under the assumption that, should Iran get nukes, they cannot count on US help.
As far as options, you will note that Trump was faced with them doing the same and managed to keep the Russians on a short leash, putting a stop to the problems that were a result of Obama’s foreign policy disaster with regards to Russian and the Ukraine in 2015. Of course, the Democrats used that fact as “proof” that Trump colluded with Putin. A larger issue here is that the Dems have been trying to gin up a war with the Russians ever since they took advantage of Obama and his SecState’s idiotic handling of foreign affairs.
Bluey · December 10, 2021 at 7:05 am
If you were paying attention to Afghanistan the word of the USA is not worth jack shit, not that it’s been worth much for 20+ years. And I say that living in a staunch ally
that relies on the USA coming to save us in any sort of prolonged engagement.
JaimeInTexas · December 10, 2021 at 8:45 am
Maybe the real issue is protecting Joe and Hunter from inconvenient truths.
AC47spooky · December 10, 2021 at 1:52 pm
Get some more young people ready for the meat grinder. That’s what our politicians specialize in.
I wouldn’t be too sure our military wouldn’t perform. You can’t group people and make assumptions as to their capacity for combat. Depends on who trains them doesn’t it?
D · December 10, 2021 at 4:02 pm
“It now appears as though the countries who swore to honor Ukraine’s borders in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons are going back on their word.”
Imagine that. It’s almost like a nation-state level version of “give up your guns, the government will protect you”.
Suckers.
anonymous coward · December 10, 2021 at 4:50 pm
Thank you Divemedic for reminding people about the Budapest Memorandum. Main stream media has forgotten about. The message is no different then, give up you guns, well protect you. Oops…
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