July 2020

Today is the anniversary of the first post of this blog, July 11, 2007. In the 4,749 days since then, I have posted 2,561 times. So much has happened since that first post. The entire Obama administration came and went. This blog has seen me through three Presidents, 3 careers, four address changes,  two wives, a bankruptcy, the birth of two grandchildren, and more changes than I care to think about.

Personally, my life has seen a lot of changes. Married and then divorced, and then married again. Employed, retired, then employed again. I declared bankruptcy and then became a millionaire.
In 2008 I got married.
In 2009 the bottom dropped out of the housing market, my pay was cut by 30% and, faced with a depreciating asset, I declared bankruptcy with the intent of giving the house back to the bank.
In 2010 My bankruptcy was discharged. The mortgage bank was caught lying to the court with regard to my bankruptcy. They were forced to pay me nearly $10,000. Then they were caught forging mortgage paperwork in my case and several dozen others. Their lawyer was disbarred and they had to pay me more than $25,000 in damages.
In 2011 My wife announced to me (during the week of my birthday, no less) that she wanted a divorce. That divorce became final in June. I retired from my career as a firemedic and began school to be a physician assistant.
In 2012 I decided to leave school, moved back to Florida, and began teaching adult education while remaining mostly retired.
In 2014, I met my current wife. I also applied for my teacher’s license and became a high school science teacher.
In 2018, I finally got paid for a job I did for the Feds six years before and I was able to pay off my house, all of my bills, and put a sizable amount in savings.

When this blog began, if you had told me that 13 years later I would no longer be a firefighter and would instead be teaching high school science, I would have called you crazy. Thirteen years is ancient for a blog, and while mine is not as widely read as some, I write mostly to keep me happy and give me a place to get out the things that I would like to say. The fact that some people care to read them is a humbling bonus.

Thank you to each and every one of you who read my ramblings.

According to the State of Florida, there are 6,942 hospitalized for COVID in Florida. Of those, 3,128 of them are in Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach. So 45% of the total COVID hospitalizations are in the Metro Miami area. Those three counties contain a population of 6.3 million people, meaning that 30% of Florida’s population lives there.

So 30% of Florida’s population is responsible for 45% of the state’s COVID hospitalizations. I think it is more accurate to say that Miami has a COVID problem than it is to say Florida has a COVID problem. 

Commander Zero reports that he is having trouble finding guns and ammo. I am with him.

Last September, I bought some AR lowers and built them into some cheap ARs. In fact, I built four ARs with red dot sights on them for what it would cost to buy one now. Sure, they aren’t high quality pipe hitters, but they are for people who may be helping me but don’t have weapons of their own.

The only pistols at my LGS are high end revolvers and black powder stuff.

Nine millimeter is in almost nonexistent supply. In January I was buying Winchester 9mm for 15 cents a round. Now one of my normal suppliers, Georgia Arms, has no pistol ammunition at any price. Same with Brownell’s. Not much better over at Palmetto State Armory, which only has Sig Elite at $2 a round, and Sellier and Bellot at 50 cents a round. Same story at SGammo. Pickings at LuckyGunner are slim as well, with prices there running between 50 cents to over a dollar a round. My LGS has ammo, but it is even more expensive and purchasers are limited to one box of ammo each. You can buy a second box if you are buying a gun at the same time.

All of this is caused because Americans are arming themselves like never before. There are the current troubles.

For that reason, I have decided to limit ammo expenditures. 50 rounds per month each of 380 and 9mm, and 20 rounds per AR to get them zeroed in. 22 is currently unlimited because I have so much of it. The rest of my ammo, I will hold on to. If the situation doesn’t improve by November, then I will switch to 22 ammo and dry fire only. I have a MantisX for that.

I have been a gun owner and shooter for over 30 years. I remember buying UMC yellow box .45ACP at $8 for a 50 round box back when I bought my first .45 caliber handgun (a Smith and Wesson 4506). I have never seen such a shortage. Not during the Clinton years, not after Sandy Hook, not even during the HRC preelection scare.

Each year, Americans normally buy 27 million firearms and 10-12 BILLION rounds of ammunition. To put that in perspective, that is more ammunition than  was used by the entire US military during each year of World War 2, when the average was just over 10 billion rounds a year and the US armed forces had more than 15 million personnel.

We are only 7 months into the year, and Americans have bought 20 million firearms and every bit of ammo in the supply chain. There is currently more ammo out there in circulation than the entire US military used during any two years of World War 2. I don’t know what production is, but demand is up. Way up.

I hope each and every one of you was smart enough to get and stock guns, ammo, and magazines.

The Orange County Mayor is mad that people in gyms aren’t following his orders. Note that the Mayor is Jerry Demings, the husband of Congresswoman Val Demings. They were both once police officers. Val is famous for leaving her department weapon in her unlocked vehicle in her driveway where it got stolen. Anyway, Jerry had this to say:

My appeal, always, is to gain voluntary compliance before we start looking at penalizing people, invoking criminal sanctions, but we want compliance there

That is what the issue is with COVID restrictions: they want compliance.

I once had a boss who was afraid of an OSHA inspection. His orders to the security guard at the gate was to refuse to allow OSHA inspectors into the gate. They would then have to leave to get a warrant, and during the interim, he would send everyone home for the day. When the inspector returned with a warrant, they would be allowed in and shown that the plant was being refurbished, and OSHA would not be able to fine him for a shut down factory.

I can imagine something like this working here.

One of the alarming stories that you will see in the coming days are reports that many hospitals’ ICU are at 90% capacity. This seems like the ICU is crowded, but that isn’t the case. Hospitals normally try to keep the ICU at 75% to 85% capacity. As support, here are two studies on that:

Optimal occupancy in the ICU: A literature review

reporting of ICU occupancy measures were identified and there were indications that optimal ICU occupancy rates were around 70–75%. 

What Is The Ideal Hospital Occupancy Rate?

I like having a midnight census of about 85% on Monday through Wednesday. That 15% buffer allows us to overlap that day’s admissions with that day’s discharges in the afternoons and also give us rooms to put the new admission in while we are cleaning the recently vacated rooms. Thursdays and Fridays, I like a midnight census of 80%. On Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 75% is acceptable because our surgical floors are starting to empty out and we reduce scheduled nursing staff accordingly.

So seeing a 90% occupancy rate is not a whole lot higher than normal. In fact, hospitals can’t be profitable with a census below 70%.

If the occupancy is too low, then you have too many staff sitting around without work to do and you will lose money. If the occupancy is too high, then a couple of nurse call-offs means excessive work for the other nurses and can hurt morale. Furthermore, if you are completely full, you have to turn away patients and in the long-run that can harm both reputation and future referrals.

So I got in a discussion with someone who is a friend of a friend of mine. We were discussing the state maintaining social distancing, mask orders, and other government mandates. This is how the important part went:

Divemedic:

The virus is out there. Wearing a mask, lockdowns, all of it are not a long term solution. We are killing the economy and costing lives in an attempt to do what? People are still going to get this virus. Remember all of the “flatten the curve” stuff? All of the things we are doing is NOT going to prevent people from catching the virus. All it will do is prolong the amount of time it takes to infect the people who are going to get it.
This virus is widespread enough that it is going to be with us for years, perhaps forever.

Panicked Lady:

And if we all get it and 67% have lasting, long term complications? What is that going to do to the workforce and the economy?

DM:

Those same people will get it eventually, no matter what you do. Only then, they will all be jobless and poor.

PL:

So, just to clarify, where does that leave people like me who are high risk? Are we just supposed to live inside, not shop, not work, and just wait for the possibility of “herd immunity” to work? What do our senior parents do? Do they just live inside for months/years, waiting for the possible immunity? Or are we just expendable?

DM:

So are we all supposed to remain cloistered because you are sick and want to go out?

PL:

I want to work. I want to live my life just as much as everyone who isn’t wearing masks. I haven’t hugged my mother or my boyfriend in months to try to maintain my own safety. I’m not asking anyone to stay cloistered. I’m asking you to wear a mask, just like you wear pants, and shirts for the good and decency of everyone.

DM:

That IS my answer. You are sick. That sucks. I feel bad for you. However, it isn’t my responsibility to take care of you. Instead of facing the fact that there are things you can no longer do, you demand that the rest of us change our behaviors, businesses go bankrupt and lay off employees, all so you can avoid being inconvenienced by YOUR illness. You demand that the rest of us change our behavior to suit you.
If your neighbor told you he had severe asthma and demanded that no one in your neighborhood mow their lawns, bar b que, smoke, or paint their homes so he could sit outside at the pool without worrying about his asthma, would that be reasonable? Of course not.
Do I think you are expendable? No. However, that in no way requires that I change my life to suit you. Not only that, there is not one single study that shows masks are effective in preventing the spread of COVID 19. Not one. 

PL:

And if you would like a study- here’s one- http://files.fast.ai/papers/masks_lit_review.pdf
Don’t ask a grad student to provide proof. We are good at that. 

DM:

You didn’t provide proof. That “study” is not a study, it is a review of literature. From your own study:

4. Mask Efficacy Studies
Although no randomized controlled trials (RCT) on the use of masks as source control for SARS-CoV-2 has been published, a number of studies have attempted to indirectly estimate the efficacy of masks. Overall, an evidence review finds “moderate certainty evidence shows that the use of handwashing plus masks probably reduces the spread of respiratory viruses.”
I don’t think that literature using words like “estimate”, “moderate certainty” or “probably reduces” is good enough to order businesses to operate at reduced capacity, close, or other disruptive activities.

The saying is “Shoot, move, and communicate.” I won’t give away the entirety of my communications plan, but here is a partial list of equipment that I have. (The majority of it is Yaesu, for the simple reason that I only want to have and learn one version of the programming software):

Regional Comms:
Yaesu FT897 mobile radio mounted in the house. I also have batteries and antennas capable of taking this radio into the field.

Area comms:
Yaesu FTM-400XDR. This is my only digital radio. It is loaded with features, and I got it for about $400. You are fortunate to find one for less than $550 nowadays. I have it mounted in a vehicle.

Yaesu FT-7900R This is a vehicle mounted radio that operates in the 2 meter and 70cm band.

Uniden CMX760 This is a vehicle mounted CB radio.

Handheld:
Yaesu FT60R- This is a dual band handheld radio that has all sorts of advanced features.

Yaesu FT270R: This is a 2 meter handheld that has the advantage of being water resistant.

Because it does you no good without someone to talk to, I have some radios to share. For sharing, I have about half a dozen Baofeng UV-5r radios with spare batteries. They operate in 2 bands (2 meter and 70cm), are not as nice as the Yaesu radios I have, but do have the advantage of only costing $25 each. At that price, I can afford to give some away if needed.

For months, I have been watching the US fall deeper into the clutches of an insurgency designed to overthrow the US government and replace it with a communist dictatorship. As late as two weeks ago, I was being called crazy. Heck, two years ago, I would have called me crazy. So I have spent the last two weeks laying out my case. Now it is time for me to present my closing argument.

I must admit that, as I worked on this, I came to realize that the condition we find ourselves in has been in the making for at least a decade. Perhaps longer. Events that led us to this include the deaths of Andrew Breitbart and Antonin Scalia, the assassination attempt on Republican house members, the impeachment attempts on President Trump, and more.

Like Mein Kampf, the insurgents laid out their entire plan for us to monitor. Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals spells out their entire plan in black and white. In part one of my three part series on insurgency, I explained the first stage of their plan. Phase one of the insurgency is the preparation phase. The insurgents spent time and energy building up an organizational and logistical foundation, upon which they built the entire plan. Saul Alinsky picked up on the fact that the American system of government could only be destroyed from within once radical operatives had control over society’s institutions. There are large portions of the Federal government that are now more loyal to the insurgency than are loyal to the Republic.

Just as I pointed out in part two of the Roots of the Insurgency story, the insurgency must eliminate or silence any opposition to the insurgency and increase the population’s dependence upon the goodwill of the portions of the government that are under the control of the insurgents. At the same time, we divide the people into “We” and “they” factions. In this case, along racial and class lines by telling a portion of the public that they are not as prosperous as “they” are because “they” are holding “us” back through an unfair system. How can you tell that it is working? Businesses change names of products, taglines, and branding. Once the government begins bowing to the political strength of the insurgents, the insurgency is at the peak of its political power. This is the point at which even more portions of the government cross over to openly support the insurgency. Those who do not submit will have their reputations, businesses, and lives ruined.

It is during phase two that the insurgency can now begin to use force. It begins modestly- assassinations, disappearances, unexplained deaths that aren’t fully investigated, and seemingly random attacks. In my opinion, this has been going on for several years. In fact, Antifa even announced on November 4, 2017 that they were beginning the revolution. I blogged about it at the time. 

Then comes  overt action. Just as I pointed out in part three of Roots of an Insurgency, the insurgency enters the crisis stage. Violence begins to be more frequent, and right out in the open. The militant wings of the insurgency come out of hiding and directly challenge the authority of the government. Not only is it the goal of the insurgents to beat the government, but to convince the people that there is no point in fighting, because the insurgency is too strong. The portions of the government- local, state, and Federal, who are under control of the insurgency will allow the insurgents to continue to operate, and will even support the actions of the insurgents. The government that is loyal to the status quo is then openly challenged to a fight. If the government accepts the challenge and win, they look like tyrants, but if they lose or refuse to accept the challenge, they look weak.

This is also the stage where purges begin, books are burned or rewritten, and the history of the old regime is destroyed. This prevents any sort of “counter revolution” from gaining any traction.

The US Army calls this the “Open Insurgency Stage.” According to the Army:

 At this stage, no doubt exists that the government is facing an insurgency. Politically, the insurgents are overtly challenging state authority and attempting to exert control over territory. Militarily, the insurgents are staging more frequent attacks, which have probably become more aggressive, violent, and sophisticated and involve larger numbers of fighters. As the insurgency becomes more active, external support for the belligerents probably becomes more apparent, if it exists.
An insurgency at this stage often progresses from undermining state authority to displacing and replacing it. Insurgents may develop a “shadow government” that mirrors state administrative structures and may establish “no-go” areas where government representatives have been driven out and where only large formations of security forces can operate.

“No go” zones like the ones in New York, Portland, Seattle, and elsewhere. At the same time that insurgents are attacking more and more often, they demand that we defund and dismantle the police to replace it with BLM personnel. (There goes that shadow government and replacing state authority.)

I previously believed that we were in phase two. I was plainly wrong. We entered phase two during the summer of 2016, once the powers that be realized that HRC might not win the Presidency. Once violence begins, the lines get a bit blurry, but I really believe that we are currently in phase three or the end of phase two. What comes next? Who knows? Who is John Galt?

I think there is a classic “October Surprise” to come. I think that it is odd that Biden isn’t even really campaigning. He hasn’t even chosen a running mate. Why? Has he given up? Doubtful. Is he that sure he will win? Is he really going to be the nominee? Or will his running mate be the surprise? Michelle Obama? It would be foolish of him to pick HRC, unless he hires a food taster.

Whatever the case may be, whatever the Democrat party does with the Biden campaign will tell us a lot about where they see the nation heading.

At any rate, we are in a violent phase of a revolution, a coup, an insurgency, call it what you will. I rest my case, and leave it up to each of you to look at the evidence and decide for yourselves where we are.