China is about to invade Taiwan. I know that Taiwan’s intelligence chief says it won’t happen this year, but hear me out. I would say it will happen before the end of October. Let’s look at why I think so:
Weather
The weather in that area of the world becomes too treacherous for an amphibious invasion from the end of October through the end of March. Once fall sets in, the water around Taiwan is too rough for an invasion force. That means putting things off until at least April. Why won’t they do that?
Preparations
China has mobilized large portions of the PLA, moving a large number of forces to the area, I think we are looking at an invasion within the next 90 days. No country mobilizes a large military force only to call it back.
Those air incursions into Taiwanese airspace haven’t just been saber rattling. Nor was the model of American carrier battlegroups they were using as target practice. These point to a country practicing for war. They are ready to fight and win. Our military is busy learning to put on drag shows and recognizing each other’s pronouns.
Every simulation run by the US military shows China defeating the US in detail. While China has carriers in the area, they won’t need them. The order of battle is impressive:
Military Situation Overwhelmingly Favors China:
The US carriers in the area are the USS Ronald Reagan with Carrier Airwing 5, which has less than 60 F/A-18E Super Hornets embarked. The USS Tripoli with its 20 embarked F-35B‘s is there, as is the USS America, but only carries aircraft for transporting its embarked marine battalion. Taiwan themselves have several hundred first line fighters, but the combined Taiwanese and American aircraft would quickly be overwhelmed by the sheer number of aircraft China has in the area (over 1,000).
There are some airbases on Okinawa (400 miles or so away) where there are a couple of squadrons of F-15s, F-35s, some AWACS, aerial tanker support, and there are a few strategic bombers there (I think B-1s). The rest of the US forces in Okinawa are marines, some spec ops people, support units, and some air defense units. I don’t know if Okinawa based units can get involved, since Japan would have a say and would not want to get drawn into the conflict. If these units DO get involved, expect Japan to get hit with some missile strikes, which would be HUGELY unpopular with the Japanese people, who overwhelmingly don’t want US forces there anyway.
The US is likely to put a dent in an invasion force, if they decide to intervene. A US submarine is likely lurking in the area, and China would lose some amphibious ships to it, that is almost a certainty. If the US becomes involved, there is a better than 50-50 chance that we would lose at least one of those carriers, and a near certainty that we will lose several ships. All of this means thousands of US casualties, perhaps 10,000 or more, within days of the onset of hostilities. Is the US ready for that?
In the end, there is only one possible outcome: Taiwan will fall. The only possible answer for the US would be to accept the loss of Taiwan, or go nuclear. Biden doesn’t have the stomach for nukes, and even if he DID use them, Taiwan will eventually be lost.
So what will happen?
Joe Biden has said that the US is committed to defending Taiwan. South Korea is fully expecting the US to honor that commitment. This puts him in a bind. If we refuse to defend Taiwan, the US looks weak, and we lose more influence in the region. If Biden tries to defend Taiwan then loses anyway, the US looks even weaker and loses influence worldwide. Then we also know that China owns Biden’s greedy, crooked ass.
The US has never been weaker, with a weak leader, weak economy, and a failing military. American political and military leadership is a joke.
In short, we have already lost. China knows it. The US military knows it. So does Foggy Bottom. I’m not sure Joe Biden knows it, but he is a senile old man. The only reason that China hasn’t invaded yet is that they don’t want to lose the US as a trading partner, but the US is quickly failing as an economic powerhouse and is no longer the profit center it once was.
For all of the above reasons, I think China invades Taiwan before Halloween. I think the US does nothing but whine and complain to the UN. I also think that this does severe damage to our influence in the Far East.
This is strangely reminiscent of Japan’s actions a century ago. Japan’s big failure then was that they didn’t have raw materials and depended on imports. China learned from that. They have access to all of the raw materials they need. We are looking at China becoming THE dominate world power for the foreseeable future.
The US, on the other hand, is staring at economic collapse and political instability. The peak of the American empire has come and gone.
EDITED TO ADD:
Okinawa also has a squadron of F-22 Raptors, but China has them outnumbered ten to one with their own advanced fighters. Even if the Raptor is a better airplane, quantity has a quality all its own.