PLAN

Published by Divemedic on

The Chinese, on the other hand, are a much more credible threat. PLAN (the Chinese Navy) is large, modern, and growing. Six modern, recent nuclear submarines. The diesel submarines that can’t do well in the open ocean work quite well in the shallow waters of the China sea, and PLAN has 45 of them.

They have 46 new destroyers, 44 frigates, and 3 carriers with more under construction.

Contrast that with the US Navy. We have :

  • 11 carriers (8 of them are more than 25 years old)
  • 9 amphibious assault ships (aka baby carriers, and half of them are more than 25 years old),
  • 9 cruisers (all of them are more than 30 years old),
  • 75 destroyers (a third of them are older than 25 years), and
  • 51 submarines (half of them are more than 25 years old, but all are nuclear).

Also keep in mind that we have to monitor 2 oceans. PLAN only has to cover one. Our Navy still has a decided advantage, but the Chinese are building a lot of ships, and the US isn’t.

Nuclear Weapons

The Chinese own an estimated 600 nuclear weapons and they are expected to have double that number by 2030. It is also estimated that only 24 of them are actually deployed on delivery devices. In both cases, I say estimated because no one really knows for sure. Since they are producing roughly 120 warheads a year, they are quickly growing in capability.

Contrast that with the US stockpile of 3700 operational warheads. That seems impressive until you realize that over 1900 of those warheads are in storage and are not available for use. While the tactical nuclear arsenal could once be deployed on NATO-designated aircraft within minutes, today the readiness level is measured in months. Since 2010, when Obama signed a new nuclear policy, the US has committed to not developing new warheads. He wanted to push us to a near unilateral nuclear disarmament.

For those reasons, China will be a near peer in deliverable nuclear warheads within the next 5 to 7 years.

Too Little, Too Late?

Forcing NATO to begin providing for their own defense and providing their own nuclear umbrella is a wise move, and one that I would like to see Trump continue to pursue. China is our most dangerous and most credible adversary. Russia is in the middle of asking for North Korean assistance in order to invade Ukraine. They just aren’t in a position to threaten the entire world.

China has all of the people it needs. They are in the middle of securing access to minerals and other natural resources worldwide. There are tons of natural resources just to their north, and the only reason that they haven’t gone to go get it is that those resources belong a strong nuclear power. Once Russia collapses, it is theirs for the taking. Opposing Russia and trying to get Europe and the US to fight them is exactly what China wants.

The time to begin producing systems to defend ourselves is now, but we are too busy seeing our tax money syphoned off by greedy, corrupt politicians on both sides of the aisle for that to happen.

The largest threat to the US is, in my opinion, the internal threat posed by the insurgent movement being backed by our own intelligence agencies/bureaucrats. China is our largest external threat.

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Categories: Military

14 Comments

Joe Blow · March 18, 2025 at 6:26 am

Good God, bless your heart….
“Once Russia collapses…”
It is the West that will collapse.
Time will tell, neither of us know for certain.

Old Maine Farmer · March 18, 2025 at 9:09 am

Fly by wire aircraft (most modern aircraft) do not do well in an EMP environment like when nukes go off. The Russians had some age 20 something aircrew do a few live drops of large nukes back in the day and survived. Our old A-7s would have survived in a degraded mode back in the day as they had pure hydraulic flight controls, as well as our B-52’s. Our modern aircraft get simulated testing. Once the nuke goes off, they will lose their electronics, flight controls, radars, pretty much everything. Notice that Bears still have vacuum tube technology; it survives the EMP. Their SU-24’s are still flying; they will still fly after the EMP. We think we are all that and that the Russians are Stone Age, but actually they are preparing for nuclear war and they are not. Does anyone really think that an F-35 will survive after a nuke goes off?

    Divemedic · March 18, 2025 at 10:15 am

    EMP isn’t the huge boogieman that many seem to think that it is. I have done a blog post on EMP in the past. You can read about it here. My grounding methods work, as my HAM shack took a near direct hit and not a radio was damaged.

    The military uses better stuff than I can afford.

    Tanfj · March 19, 2025 at 1:16 pm

    I am old enough to remember when the SCA Kingdom of the Sea caused a diplomatic incident. From memory, there was an SCA group that was active on a aircraft carrier and was photographed by Russian intelligence in full knightly armor.

steaming fourth world turd · March 18, 2025 at 10:33 am

Moscow by spring, Beijing by summer.

    ColdCdn · March 18, 2025 at 1:52 pm

    Not likely. China owns the largest land-based (non-ICBM) missile forces in the world. Unlike US-Ru, it never agreed to limit intermediate range missiles.

    In 2014, a military fight between the U.S. and China was described as a “shark vs elephant” sea-power versus land-power. With the rapid expansion of China’s navy covered by a land-based missile shield, that analogy doesn’t hold today. China could go toe to toe with the USN near its shores.

    U.S.-China wargames over Thailand predict U.S. loses 2 flattops-plus: “likely at the cost of hundreds of aircraft, two aircraft carriers, up to two dozen cruisers or destroyers, and tens of thousands of casualties”
    https://taskandpurpose.com/news/war-game-taiwan-china-us/

    https://chinapower.csis.org/conventional-missiles/
    “According to the US Department of Defense (DoD), China’s missile forces in 2000 “were generally of short range and modest accuracy.” In the years since then, China has developed the world’s “largest and most diverse” arsenal of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.1” … “A conventionally armed variant of the older, nuclear-armed DF-21, the DF-21D has an estimated range of 1,550 km. Unlike its predecessor, the DF-21D is equipped with a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, which significantly enhances the missile’s accuracy. The DF-21D is believed to be the world’s first operational anti-ship ballistic missile, and is often referred to as a “carrier killer” for its alleged ability to strike aircraft carriers.”

    Nearly 40% of US attack submarines in or awaiting repair as shipyards face worker shortages, supply chain issues
    “Of the 49 fast attack submarines in the Navy, a total of 18 are either in depot maintenance or awaiting maintenance, known as idle.”
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/politics/us-attack-submarines-repair/index.html

    China unveiled Yu-10 ship killer torpedo in 2024.
    “The Yu-10 heavy torpedo marks a notable advancement in China’s naval technology, primarily due to its sophisticated guidance systems and significant operational range (at least 50 kilometres)…In summary, the Yu-10 heavy torpedo has significantly advanced China’s naval capabilities with far-reaching implications for regional and global maritime power dynamics.”
    https://chintan.indiafoundation.in/articles/chinas-yu-10-torpedo-implications-for-naval-power-and-global-security/

    “no US submarine has anything even remotely comparable to P-800 Oniks or hypersonic 3M22 Zircon all of which, including 3M14 Kalibr, are carried by Yasen-class subs.”
    (Russia has 5 active, 4 under construction, total 12 planned). Yasen class concept uses the platform as a nuclear guided missile submarine.
    https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/03/every-military-in-world.html

oldvet50 · March 18, 2025 at 2:50 pm

I don’t think the comparison of fleets of ships or aircraft is meaningful in that even if we had three times the number of physical resources, we don’t have the people to operate and maintain them. Not only do the majority our military-aged youth lack the physical prowess necessary, they are also more intellectually inferior than foreign forces. Our schools have been ‘dumbed-down’ for decades to accomodate diversity.

lynn · March 18, 2025 at 4:26 pm

Oh my, we, the USA, are in decline. Significantly and noticeably in decline.

And China is in the middle of taking Africa.

Unknownsailor · March 19, 2025 at 6:48 am

I am extremely doubtful that the crews of all those shiny new ships know how to fight them, maintain them, or any of the other things crews on modern ships must do to effectively employ their platforms in combat.
Chinese military is loaded to the gills with corruption, and like most everything else in China, face plays a major role in what they do.
I am extremely doubtful that even half of their shiny toys would work, at even a basic, sail out of home port level, should they try to actually use them.

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