Divemedic

Let’s do some science

The goalposts keep moving. The latest we are being told is that the COVID vaccine keeps the illness from being as severe. We are told that we should trust the science, and I am a facts and figures kind of guy, so let’s do just that.

So we will do what is called a retrospective analysis of COVID data to see if the presence of the vaccine changed the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of COVID. All figures for this analysis were obtained from this website.

By December 15, 2020, exactly zero percent of the US population had received a COVID vaccine. Also on that date, 17,299,965 Americans had been determined by various tests to have COVID. Of them, 320,309 had died. That means that 1.85 percent CFR.

In the ensuing months, 70 percent of the public received a COVID vaccine between December and September. So how did it do?

As of September 11, 2021, a total of 41,905,818 had tested positive for COVID. As of that same day, 678,866 of them had died. That means that 24,605,853 people tested positive for COVID and of those, 358,557 died from December 16, 2020 to September 11, 2021. That means a 1.46 percent CFR .

Reducing the CFR from 1.85 to 1.46 represents a 31 percent reduction in the CFR. So what caused this reduction in the fatality rate? There are a couple of things that this could point to:

  1. The vaccine does in fact reduce the severity of COVID.
  2. During the first few months of the pandemic, tests were in short supply. For this reason, the only people being tested were those who were the sickest with apparent COVID symptoms. Those who had only mild symptoms, or no symptoms, simply weren’t tested, and this skews the CFR higher.
  3. The medical profession has simply gotten better at treating the illness.
  4. The new strains of COVID are less virulent

In science, you want to eliminate all of the variables except for the variable you want to test (called the independent variable) and the result (called the dependent variable). So how do we do that?

The independent variable is the vaccine. We will isolate that by looking at the 90 day period from June 15 to September 15. During that period, an average of 60 percent of Americans was vaccinated.

To isolate the dependent variable, we will look at a 90 day period immediately prior to the vaccine becoming available. That will eliminate factors 2 and most of 3, which will allow us to examine as pure a set of variables as possible with the dataset we have.

So- let’s do some math. From September 15 to December 15, 2020, a total of 10,343,397 Americans tested positive for COVID. During that same time period, 115,703 died. The CFR for the 90 day period immediately preceding vaccine distribution was 1.12 percent. Now from June 11 to September 11, 2021, a total of 7,697,685 people tested positive, and 63,589 died, for a CFR of 0.83 percent. So there was a 25.9 percent reduction in the CFR between the two time periods.

The conclusion here is that vaccinating approximately 60 percent of the public corelated with an approximate 26 percent decline in the CFR. Note that this does not mean that the vaccine was the cause of this decline. In fact, it implies the opposite. If the vaccine were the cause of this decline, the decline in the CFR should have been larger.

Real scientists would be looking into other reasons for the decline. I am betting that they aren’t.

By Divemedic, ago

Factions and the Power Struggle

In the old Soviet Union, there was a constant power struggle between factions. There were three main centers of power in that country, and after bloody infighting, they wound up in an uneasy truce, sharing the power of the entire nation. That is why the Kremlin was guarded by three different forces, each one loyal to a different faction.

I think that the Conservative Treehouse is on to something. The US government (and to some extent, the political parties) is fractured and the factions are struggling for power. For convenience, let’s just go with what CT began with, but make a few tweaks:

♦ TEAM One – The Department of State is aligned with the CIA. Their media PR firms are the majority of the MSM, most of Big Tech (Facebook, Alphabet, Twitter, etc.), and the Washington Post. Their ideology is favorable to the United Nations. Their internal corruption is generally driven by relationship with foreign actors. Members of Team One: Hillary Clinton, Clinton Global Initiative, Muslim Brotherhood, Samantha Powers, Susan Rice, Cass Sunstein, Brookings Institute, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Council on Foreign Relations, the NFL, NBA, and a majority of the Federal Bureaucracy (Dept of Ed, Energy, HUD, etc).

♦ TEAM Two – The White House is aligned with the Pentagon (DoD) and National Security Council (NSC). Their media PR firms include Fox News, The Wall St Journal, and other “right wing” news sources. New York Times, Politico, etc. Their internal corruption is generally driven by domestic influence. Members of Team Two: Barack Obama, George Bush, Dan Quayle, Mike Pence, Wall St, Big Banks, Multinational Corporations, Defense Contractors, FBI, most of the Judicial Branch, Nancy Pelosi, the “Never Trump” wing of the Republican Party, and Mitch McConnel.

The Trump Presidency really made both teams angry. Since he was not an insider and thus not a part of either team, this represented a threat to both teams. He HAD to go. In a rare show of unity, they united to eliminate the threat he represented. He really wasn’t a great President and had his flaws, but he really pissed off both sides, and this was fun to watch. His Presidency was the last hope of avoiding the takeover of one team or the other, it just came too late.

China has its hands in both teams. They are the funding behind both teams, and are stirring the pot. We know that they are also funding dissidents in this country, so it isn’t so far fetched to think that they are funding BLM and Antifa. China doesn’t care who wins, as long as there is discord in the US. If the US is made weaker, China gets to do what it wants on its side of the world without concern for US interference.

The American people, you will note, are not involved in this power struggle. If they will care enough to get involved remains to be seen.

What I can’t figure out is where some of the more minor players fit. AOC, BLM, and Antifa are good examples of those who appear to not be a part of either team, but still have some influence in the game. Perhaps there is a third team here at play?

By Divemedic, ago

401k in an inflationary period

Redcabinsteve asks:

My wife is a high earner with substantial amounts in a profit sharing acct and a 401 acct. If anyone has the words to convince her to at a minimum take some $ off the table I’d appreciate it. She deflects my words like reverting back to mean, things go down, etc.

If you have a 401k with employer matching, she might be correct. Let’s look at a 401kas an example. Her employer matches her contributions, up to 7% of her income. Let’s look at the math to see what happens if she deducts 7% from her pay:
Let’s say she has an income of $50k per year. That means a deduction of $3500 a year. Her employer matches that with another $3500, for a total of $7000 put into her 401k.
Assuming that the two of you have a taxable income between $81,050 and $172,750, your marginal tax rate is 22 percent. What this means is that In exchange for this $7000, her take home pay is only reduced by $2,730 because she doesn’t pay tax on that money, since it is deducted before income taxes are calculated.
So she ‘loses’ $2,730 in take home pay, but turns that into $7,000 in retirement savings, which translates into an instant 154% return on investment.

The larger her employer match, the better off she is. If her employer doesn’t have employer matching for the 401k, the advantage is much less, and inflationary periods really hurt you. In the example above, if there were no employer matching, that $2,730 becomes only $3,500, which lowers the return to 28%, which in this inflationary environment doesn’t help as much the inflation is hurting you.

In my case, once I have worked there for a year, my employer offers a 4% match. I plan on deducting that maximum 4% as soon as I am eligible.

EDIT: Comments have devolved into nonsensical gobbledygook. I normally leave them open, but I’ve had enough. Comments closed.

By Divemedic, ago

Fairness, according to the left

This item keeps coming across my aggregator. This third grade teacher has a lesson using bandaids that the left seems to think is brilliant. The conclusion of the lesson is this:

Fair doesn’t mean everyone gets the same thing, fair means that everyone gets what they need to be successful.

No it doesn’t. In real life, not everyone is going to be successful. Some won’t try. Some will try and fail. To hand out materials and benefits to ensure that everyone has the same amount of success is not helping children. It causes them to become lazy and reliant on handouts from a beneficent authority figure. This is how people become cattle, dependent on others for their success.

Instead, teach them to become self reliant. Teach them that anything worth having is worth working for. Teach them that the joy of success after a struggle is something worth striving for.

By Divemedic, ago

US Army has a history of trying to take over

General Milley’s actions in refusing to obey the orders of the President, along with the fact that his subordinates knowingly followed along changed the US military from a professional military force under Constitutional authority into an armed mob engaged in a military junta. Make no mistake about it, the four men pictured below engaged in a mutiny against legitimate Constitutional authority.

The framers of the U.S. Constitution worked to ensure the military would be under civilian control. When they wrote the Constitution, they separated the responsibilities for the military, placing the responsibilities firmly in civilian hands. Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution states, “The President shall be the Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States when called into the actual Service of the United States.”

Oddly enough, Milley isn’t the first US military officer to attempt to overthrow the US government. In the early days of the Republic, before the concept of civilian control of the military sank in, some military officers actively plotted against the government.

General James Wilkinson was the senior military officer from June 15, 1800 to January 27, 1812. He fought in the Revolutionary War and outfitted the Continental Army. Wilkinson became a key figure in the plan to induce what was then the “southwest United States” to form a separate nation allied with Spain. He took an oath of allegiance to Spain, spied for his secret new patron, and received an annual Spanish pension of $4,000. He was the governor of the Louisiana Territory from 1805 to 1806.

He continued as the ranking officer in the Army through 1812, when his incompetence and scheming were finally recognized and he was relieved.

The fact that Milley unilaterally decided to disobey the orders of the Commander in Chief, along with his immediate subordinates means that the US military is no longer under civilian control. Not only that, but this also means that no one who is in the military has any obligation to obey the orders of their superiors.

Milley disobeyed orders repeatedly. He did so in 2019 when he lied to the President about troop strength in Syria. He refused orders in 2020 when ordered to deploy the National Guard to stop BLM rioters in the Capitol.

When Marine Lt Colonel Scheller resigned his commission, he cited a loss of trust and confidence in his superiors’ ability to lead. When Army Lt Colonel Hague resigned HIS commission, he complained of “an ideologically Marxist takeover of the United States government at their upper echelons.” It appears as though they both knew more than the rest of the American public were led to believe.

As I have said before, we haven’t even begun to see yet how bad things can get. As the wheels continue to fall off, things will get worse and worse. Sooner or later, some military units will mutiny. That’s when things get sporty.

That is exactly why the Biden administration freaked out when they began to think that the rank and file of the US military may not be following orders any longer.

By Divemedic, ago

COVID

A brand new study says that “almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.” Yes, I agree. This is my experience at my hospital.

I think the reason for this is that the hospital tests every single patient who is admitted for COVID, even if they come in for something that is not related to the disease in any way. More than half of the patients in my hospital are COVID positive, but only about ten percent are severe cases, and another ten percent are moderate cases. The remainder- about 8o percent of them, are mild or asymptomatic.

Anecdote: When my nephew and his girlfriend went to the hospital so she could give birth to my grand-niece, they were both tested. Both were COVID positive, but asymptomatic.

By Divemedic, ago

I was right

Now it comes out that I have been right about the US President being ousted by a coup from within our government. The entire thing was orchestrated by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Speaker of the House, in concert with, and at the direction of, the Chinese government.

In July 2020, I warned that there was an apparent Communist insurgency attempting to overthrow the US government in what appeared to be a coup that was following the CIA’s insurgency manual. (That manual can be found on the “Training Manuals” link at the top of the page)

I posted about this coup for months. In fact, I was talking about it as early as 2019.

In December, I posted that opinion over at the “View from North Central Idaho” and other bloggers laughed it off.

On January 7, I made the following observations:

  • Trump had his email and Social Media access cut off because the Obamas ordered it.
  • The Vice President ordered the activation of the National Guard
  • Republicans quickly abandoned and distanced themselves from President Trump

I saw this and came to the conclusion that the only way the orders given by Pence would be lawful was that President Trump had successfully been deposed and overthrown in a coup.

Time magazine later admitted to rigging the election.

“General Li, I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay,” Milley said. “We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you.”

“General Li, you and I have known each other for now five years,” Milley added. “If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise.”

After the calls, Milley ordered his top service chiefs to monitor everything “all the time,” contacted Paul Nakasone, director of the National Security Agency, and said, “Needles up … keep watching, scan,” and told then-CIA Director Gina Haspel, “Aggressively watch everything, 360.”

“Milley was overseeing the mobilization of America’s national security state without the knowledge of the American people or the rest of the world,” the book states.

The US government has fallen. We are now fully owned and administered by the Chinese Communist Party.

By Divemedic, ago