Joe Blow decides to call me stupid for stating that the Ukraine/Russia war is a stalemate. Normally, comments attacking me like that wouldn’t make the blog, but Joe is a long time commenter and has earned a bit of grace. He just needs some facts.
The fact is that Russia only controls 19% of Ukraine, and about a quarter of that was the territory in the Crimea that was taken a decade ago. The fact is that the front lines have been largely in the same place for the past three years. This is where the lines were in November of 2022:

Now look to see where the front lines are now:

Nearly two and a half years later, and there is virtually no difference. In fact, in terms of territory held, there have been no gains since the first year of the war.

You can see that the Russians made huge gains in the initial two months of the war, then Ukraine won back some territory within six months, then the lines have remained virtually stable since. That’s called a stalemate. In the meantime, over one million lives and half a trillion dollars have been lost, and for what?

I see absolutely no US national interest in this war. None. The “oh, we need to defend Ukraine or the Russians will take over Europe like Hitler did” is simply a weak imitation of the domino theory, a stupid holdover from the Cold War that has been used as justification for every stupid useless war that the US has been involved in for the past 80 years.
There is not a reason to spill a single drop of American blood, nor waste a single American dollar on a war that simply isn’t our problem. Let Europe worry about this one. I don’t think that Russia is going to go to war with the European Union unless the EU keeps beating war drums and trying to start one. We need to stop letting France, Britain, Russia, and Germany drag us into the wars that they have been fighting in Europe for over 1,300 years. If they want to keep fighting, let them, but there is no reason for us to be involved.
The fact that members of the EU have been refusing to allow US military units to purchase supplies is beyond the pale. For example, a Norway company recently refused to allow a US submarine to purchase diesel fuel for their backup generator, and called for other companies to do the same. The Norwegian government quickly backed away from this boycott, which is good for the EU, because if I were Trump, my first step would have been to pull all nuclear weapons from EU bases. All of them. It’s something that is quick and easy to do, and sends an unmistakable message to the EU: our military cooperation with your country can disappear overnight, if you want to fuck around.
The US is NATO and the EU has been taking advantage of the US security guarantee to increase social spending while ignoring defense. The number of main battle tanks in EU member states has decreased from 15,000 in 2000 to 5,000 today. The US has 4,657 main battle tanks in NATO territory, meaning that the US is 50% of NATO’s military strength. Even THAT statistic is misleading. Italy, for example, has about 200 Ariete tanks, but only 50 of them are fully operational, with the rest of them being in various stages of disrepair. If this is typical of NATO member states, the US forces in Europe make up 80% of the entire NATO force. What do we get in return for that?
This is why the EU has so much money to spend on social programs. The US military has 100,000 troops in Europe. That equals ten percent of our entire military, costing the US about $200 billion a year. What do we get in return for that?
The message being sent by Trump is unmistakable- the days of Uncle Sugar being exploited are over. The EU can screw around with Russia, but at the end of the day, they don’t have the forces to take on a large war.


