Fallout

The FBI story that I reported on last night will turn out to be one of the most important stories of the year, but not for the reason that everyone immediately thinks. The FBI, without evidence, has accused a couple of Russian nationals of paying conservative bloggers and influencers to support Trump, as if they need money to do so. They make the accusation without any real evidence, and the people being accused are “at large,” meaning that they aren’t going to be making any statements.

This, they claim, means that Russia is attempting to influence our elections in favor of Trump, thus making Trump a Russian agent. As if we haven’t heard this story before. This will undoubtedly push a few thousand swing votes in the direction of HOTUS. I don’t think this will turn the election, because as I have stated before, Trump never had a chance of seeing the Oval Office again.

More importantly, it gives HOTUS a reason to implement her plans of censoring the Internet.

Those evil Russian hatemongers and their leader must be kept from spreading their misinformation and propaganda on the Internet. Kamala will protect us all from the evil Russian menace.

Gun Ban

So reading this stupid shit:

Keep in mind that the books aren’t banned for reading, selling, or even printing. The rules for books are that you can’t have age inappropriate books in school libraries.

Makes me want to remind the left that the Gun Free Schools Act was passed in 1994. By your same logic, guns have been banned for 30 years. Maybe if you on the left spent more time learning history, government, and law, instead of spending time memorizing everyone’s pronouns or obsessing about your imaginary penis, you would know this. Dipshits.

Shooter Manifesto

The Tennessee Star released the journal of Audrey Hale, the female to male tranny that shot up her former school. I downloaded the journal and have archived it here on this site. She decided to call herself Aiden and carried out the shooting less than a year after she began pretending that she was a man.

The journal is a weeks long picture into the random train of consciousness of a person who has lost touch with reality, spending page after page of rage, sadness, and thoughts of using a penis on “beautiful brown girls” while claiming that if she had a penis, it would be a “big and rock hard one” before lamenting that she was only born with a puny vagina. By the time March 11 rolled around, she wrote a 3 page dissertation about what her imaginary penis was like, and it was a disjointed psychotic screed.

The common thread running through the book is about pain, sadness, and the desire to massacre people. Even as she wished to be a man, she also claimed that all men should die because they are a waste of life and time. Then she claimed that it was a blow to women that she was a man born in a woman’s body, because they were missing out on all of the good things that she brought to the world.

This was a person who hated herself, and hated the world as well. She wanted to kill as many people as possible. She journals that she was seeing a therapist, and I can’t believe that this supposed mental health professional didn’t see the madness there.

Arlington

Trump was invited to Arlington to attend the memorial for the troops that died during the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal by the dead soldiers’ families. Biden and Harris were invited as well, but chose not to attend.

The left is in full pearl clutching mode, calling Trump a criminal because he had a photographer there, claiming that it is a crime for political activity to take place at Arlington. Funny, they weren’t too concerned about that last Veteran’s day, when Biden was campaigning there.

Then the left goes on an on about the respect they have for the people buried there. I am old enough to remember when the left thought it was funny to do this:

This illustrates how politics is done today. For $5000, you too can hire an internet reputation company to clean up your online reputation. I would bet that they can even gin up enough astroturf for you to make a run at the Whitehouse.

College, How It’s Going

My wife is an adjunct professor at a college. She teaches online classes in finance, economics, and an intro course in the Microsoft Office suite. The Microsoft class is a good one, because the state of Florida requires one semester of computer education in order to graduate, so there are a lot of students who take those classes.

The policies of the courses are set by the college. Every professor has the same policy- no late work is allowed, no cheating, etc. This is to make sure that the lessons are the same for everyone to ensure consistency.

The class covers a different program every few weeks: Office, Excel, Powerpoint, etc. The assignments go as follows: they are taught how to use the features of the program, then are given a file that they have to make edits to. The edits that they must make are spelled out, the student then makes those edits, saves the file, and turns it in to the professor. The file has a digital watermark to ensure that students aren’t merely sharing the file and turning in each other’s work. They have two weeks to complete the assignment- it’s due on Sunday night at midnight.

In her Microsoft class, she has 90 students. The first assignment was due at the end of the second week, consisting of making 25 edits to an Excel Spreadsheet. It’s an intro class, so the edits aren’t difficult. Still, this is what happened:

  • fully 24 of them didn’t turn in the first assignment, and instead sent her an email asking for more time. Because the spreadsheet is being edited in the school’s environment, she can see how they are progressing. 21 of the 24 students didn’t even begin to work on the assignment until the day it was due.
  • Five students didn’t turn in an assignment, nor did they bother to message her as to why. They didn’t even attempt to work on it.
  • Another 6 students were caught turning in assignments with other students’ watermarks.
  • Then there was the student who takes the cake- he sent her an email complaining that he got an A on the first week’s assignment (introduce yourself to the class by posting an intro to the class discussion page), but now has a 23% in the class because he didn’t do the assignment, but that’s not fair because he doesn’t even OWN a PC or a Mac, and it’s not fair to penalize him for being poor and not owning a computer. In an online class about computers, when there are computers free for students to use in the campus library. He complained that the assignments should be able to be completed on a cell phone.

Fully 40% of the students in her classes are failing because they didn’t even TRY to get the assignment done in the two weeks that was allotted for them to complete it.

So my cranky assed wife spent the day dealing with students’ emails about why they didn’t get their work done, and why they are failing her class. For those of you in the workforce- these people are going to be working with you any time now, and this is the work ethic you will be dealing with.

Bankers and Lending

Many people who are in the general public don’t like “bankers” but without them, it is very difficult to build wealth and for a modern economy to function. Money is the means with which we engage in trade- it enables two people to trade goods and services.

Money permits the farmer to barter for medical services without having to travel to the doctor’s office with a lamb in tow to use for barter. It permits the doctor to barter with others for things that can’t readily be traded for- the doctor can’t mail a leg of lamb to the electric company, and it’s difficult for the electric company to barter with a bushel of electricity.

Once we admit that money is a necessary commodity that permits modern trade, we also realize that we sometimes don’t have enough liquidity to make large purchases. In these cases, we find someone willing to loan us the money. Seldom do we have friends and family that have enough in liquid assets to loan us money for a house or a car, so we enlist strangers and acquaintances to loan us money.

Those people aren’t going to loan us money without knowing the risks of not being repaid. They evaluate that risk, and looking at people with similar financial profiles, determine how risky it is to loan you money. That is, how likely is it that you will default on the debt and walk away with their cash? So let’s say that the lender determines that people whose financial situations are similar to yours default on loans 1% of the time.

The lender needs to be compensated for his administrative overhead, the risk he is undertaking, and still have enough for a profit. If he were to invest that same cash into a mutual fund, he would have significantly less risk and expense, so he needs to make more than he would make investing in that mutual fund.

In this case, the mutual fund would pay 2.5%. The lender’s overhead is another 1%. If the lender doesn’t get to charge at least 3.5% interest on this loan, he is only breaking even with that mutual fund, and that doesn’t even account for risk.

In order to measure risk, the lending industry has developed credit scoring, with Fair, Isaac, and Company (FICO) being the company with the most widely used scoring model. Let’s look at default rates for different FICO scores:

Credit Score% of the populationprobability of default
800 or more13%1%
750-79927%1%
700-74918%4.4%
650-69915%8.9%
600-64912%15.8%
550-5998%22.5%
500-5495%28.4%
less than 5002%41%
Credit Scores and Default Rates

You can see that loaning money to people with a FICO score of 700 or higher means that you have a 6.4% chance of losing your investment. Using the numbers from our example above, if we were the lender, we would have to charge 9.9% interest to get the same 2.5% we would get from that mutual fund. In this case, we have one of two choices: we can lend to people with a 700 credit score or more, but at 10.9% interest, or we can loan to people with a 750 FICO or higher, and because the risk is lower, we could offer loans at 6.5%.

The issue here is that only 40% of the public has a score of 750 or higher, and everyone wants to lend to them because the risk is so low. For those reasons, competition is fierce for their business, and we will likely only be able to charge 5.9% for loans without collateral, and 5.7% for loans with collateral, because collateral reduces our risk.

This is of course a simplified example, but it does show that this is a simple math problem that balances risk with reward. This doesn’t mean that bankers are evil.

Let’s suppose that you had a chance to choose between two employers. One offered to pay you $20 an hour, and there was a 99% chance that your paycheck would cash without a problem. The second employer offers you $100 an hour, but there is a 35% chance that your paycheck will bounce. It’s a choice that you want to be careful with.

Banks do the same thing. Why would someone loan you money unless there was a reward for them doing so? Anyone who has loaned a friend or family member knows that there is a chance they will never see that money again, and that is for people you know. Absolute strangers are even more likely to walk.

I discovered that myself when I invested money in some peer to peer lending on Prosper.com. I put $500 into that website, loaning that money by partially funding several different loans. The terms there are simple- people see the credit scores of lenders, and bid on funding those loans at whatever interest rate they are comfortable.

So let’s say that you want to borrow $1,000 and your credit score is a 740. There is a 6.4% chance of a default, so the bidding begins. Your loan is funded by 30 people who offer to lend you the money at 8.9% interest. You have to repay that loan in 36 months, with a monthly payment of $31.75. At the end of the three years, the people who funded your loan would have received $1.10 in return for every dollar that they loaned you- a profit of 10% over three years. (some of the interest charged is given to Prosper to cover their expenses)

If you only make a year’s payments before defaulting, each dollar invested would only return 69 cents, meaning that the investors lost 31% of their investment.

That’s why interest gets charged, and a basic idea of how it’s calculated. If interest wasn’t charged, then there would be no money to lend to anyone.

Discarding the Constitution

Now that the left is, in their minds, on the cusp of taking over, they are calling for the elimination of the Constitution. Mostly, they are angry that the nation isn’t a pure Democracy where the 49% minority who live in between the coasts is ruled over by the people who live on the east and west coasts.

They want a return to slavery. In this way, the city dwellers in Los Angeles and New York can vote to declare that housing, food, and medical care are basic human rights that must be provided to them free of charge.

The people who don’t live in major cities would be forced to work to provide these things to the cities free of charge. They ignore that, without the Constitution, the government is no longer a representative of the people, bound to serve them under a social contract: it is instead an occupying force that rules over them by force of arms. The only way to maintain this power is from the barrel of a gun. This won’t end well for anyone, as Americans don’t respond well to violent dictatorships. As if our national motto is: “You can’t tell me what to do,” Americans will resist any attempt to lord over them with force.

The NY Times article that spawned this post mentions something that I think is the only way to avoid the civil war that is coming: A National divorce. The country breaking up into different, distinct nations is the only way that this bloodshed could conceivably be avoided. I also don’t think it will happen, because the left can’t force people to provide them with free stuff unless they have people to do the work.

Each of those on the communist left see themselves as being able to sit around the house smoking weed, playing video games, and writing shitty poetry while someone else provides them with food, water, shelter, and medical care. They can’t do that if no one is in their control that can be forced to do that for them.

So we are headed for a violent period in this nation that will make the last civil war look, well, civil. Think of the years of 1865, but with half a dozen factions fighting it out for supremacy, and where one, or perhaps even more than one, side is in possession of nuclear weapons.