Figures Don’t Lie, but Liars Figure

Interesting article in the Guardian on FBI crime statistics. The left is pissed because crime is going down, and this will make it harder for them to pass laws that are soft on criminals while still allowing them to outlaw guns. They can’t have that, so they are going to blame Ron DeSantis.

“The issue of crime is deeply weaponized and politicized and we see that come up especially during election cycles. Florida has very incomplete data but Governor Desantis’s campaign is stating they’ve made Florida the safest state.”

In Florida, only 8% of the police departments are represented in the 2022 data, according to the Marshall Project.

The real money quotes are located towards the end of the piece.

  • Black Americans, who make up 13.6% of the population, accounted for 56% of the more than 16,000 homicide victims in the US.
  • of the 19,200 weapons used to kill someone in 2022, 15,000 – or 77% – of them were a firearms, usually a handgun.

Let’s take a look at the FBI Report and see the data for ourselves. The FBI numbers themselves seem to have some confusion in them that isn’t due to spotty data.

First, race. There were 8,694 homicides committed by blacks in 2022, out of a total of 16,724 homicides.

Let’s look at just homicides. Of the 16,724 homicides, 5,803 (34%) of them had handguns listed as the means. That’s on the “crime” page with homicide selected as the crime.

Now look at the “expanded homicide data” page, and you see that 7,937 homicides were committed by handguns out of a total of 19,200 homicides (41% of homicides). Why the discrepancy? Why are there 19,200 homicides on one page, but the same dataset on a different page says there are 16,724? How can we trust these numbers?

Even so, looking at the data. There were 542 rifles (<3%) of all types and 186 shotguns (<1%) used as homicide weapons. More people were killed by “unarmed” assailants than were killed by assailants with rifles.

The obvious answer here is to make it illegal for black people to own guns. That would have prevented far more homicides than banning concealed carry or banning “assault weapons.” Wait, you say that’s ridiculous? I agree. Gun bans won’t stop evil people from doing evil things.

Three Times is Enemy Action

As I reported earlier, there is now a shortage in the ammunition market. The old saying goes: Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action. This shortage is therefore looking like it’s being caused by government fiat. In the past month:

We know that Biden said more than a year ago that he wants to cut off ammunition sales to the public. He tried last year to cut off the funding to the plant, but was stopped by Congress. So, it appears that he is trying a new tactic.

Mr Guns and Gear has some information on this:

This is not the end. Expect things to accelerate. I think that 2024 is going to be a rough ride.

Not a Chance

For the third year in a row, Democrats are trying to pass a law making it illegal to stop criminals from breaking the law. The proposed law would make it a crime to detain someone for violating the law, except in two circumstances (off site pdf alert):

  • the person making the arrest is a Florida cop and the arrestee has committed a felony
  • the person being arrested has just broken into the home, vehicle, or vessel of the person making the arrest. The person making the arrest won’t be permitted to use deadly force.

This is aimed at allowing criminals to get away with their crimes, because now no one will arrest them. Store security officers won’t be permitted to catch shoplifters. You can’t detain someone that is raping your wife. You won’t be able to tackle a man that just tried to kidnap your child. I’m sure you can think of your own examples.

This is the reality of the Democrat party. They are pro-criminal and anti citizen. Hopefully, this won’t pass Florida’s legislature, just as it hasn’t for the past two years.

Cancer

Six years ago, my mother in law was diagnosed with breast cancer. Her loopy, woke, left-wing, granola crunching, pot smoking moron of a sister tried to talk her out of following the advice of doctors and try natural remedies instead of chemotherapy sent her a book written by Suzanne Somers. In that book, Somers claims that she beat breast cancer without modern medicine, and you can too.

Why anyone would take medical advice from a bubble headed blonde whose only claim to fame was starring in a 70’s sitcom that mostly involved John Ritter ogling her tits is beyond me. Still, it’s an issue in the US that I have never understood. Americans seem to be fascinated with the opinions of celebrities on everything from reverse mortgages to medicine to gun control. Why is it that someone being famous for some vapid television show or because they play sportsball seems to make them an authority on virtually any topic under the sun?

It took us several weeks to convince my MIL that treatment was the way to go. Her particular form of breast cancer was easily treatable with chemo and targeted therapy, and that is what she went with. She was miserable when her hair fell out, but with family support and a few wigs, she made it. A year later, there was no trace of the cancer that could have killed her.

Suzanne Somers died yesterday of the breast cancer she claimed she had beaten with natural remedies. I wonder how many people took that idiots advice and wound up dead as a result? Good riddance.

Using Statistics to Mislead

Take a look at the National Safety Council’s statistics on your odds of dying.

I’m not even on the “guns” yet. There is a basic flaw with this chart, and that flaw is the assumption that the event that causes your death is random- that is, they are assuming everyone is equally likely to experience one of the events. So looking at “opioid overdose” for example, if you don’t take opioids, your chances of dying of an opioid overdose are exactly zero.

Now that we have exposed the flaw, note that “guns” is the only cause of death that is listed as an object, and not an event or action. You will also note that the math doesn’t work. Firearm assault and accidents aren’t even close to equaling your odds of dying from “guns.” Doing the math, there is a 1.1 percent chance of being killed by “guns,” but your chances of dying from a firearm assault or accident are only 0.049 percent. The other 0.61 percent? That is from suicides. So you cut your chances of being killed by “guns” if you take the simple step of not comitting suicide. We see that on the next line, where you have a 1 percent chance of killing yourself.

Taking other steps, like not being a gang banger, a drug dealer, or a violent criminal likewise reduce your risk of death by “guns,” but we won’t mention that because it doesn’t fit the agenda. This is a great example of how people can be mislead by what appears to be solid facts and mathematics applied in a scientific appearing article, when it is really just hokum that is designed to manipulate the reader.

Not Woke Enough

Andrew Branca was providing expert testimony on self defense law, free of charge to defendants that were being defended by the Colorado Public Defenders office. Then they found out that he wasn’t woke enough. I will let you read about it from Branca himself.