Aw, Craps

If you have read this blog for any time at all, you know that one of my vices is that I like to gamble. It all began when I had to take statistics in college, where my professor used casino games to teach us statistics. For that reason, I learned several casino games, and the one that really stuck was Craps.

It is a straightforward game of math, and once the rules are understood, fairly easy to play. The math can be done in your head pretty quickly. I get tired of always talking about the decay of our society, so I thought that I could do a few posts that were more fun (for me) to write to break things up a bit.

The rules for Craps are easy, but since it is a fast moving game and there are lots of bets that can be made, people who watch the game get easily confused and are often scared away from the game. Let me tell you though, that a busy table with a hot shooter is pretty exciting and makes for a fun game.

The rules are simple: The shooter picks up two sixed sided dice and rolls them to the other end of the table. (Most casinos have the rule that the dice must hit the wall at the opposite side of the table.) The first time the shooter rolls is called the “come out roll.” If the dice show a 7 or 11, the shooter wins. If the dice show a 2, 3, or 12, the shooter loses. Any other number becomes the “point” and the shooter continues to roll until they either roll a 7 (which causes the shooter to lose) or again rolls the point (for which the shooter wins). As long as the shooter continues to win, they continue to roll the dice. If the shooter loses on the come out roll, they can try again, but if they lose by rolling a 7 after the point is set, the dealer passes the dice to the player on the losing shooter’s left, and that person becomes the new shooter. That’s it for the rules of the game.

Everything else that happens on the table is betting that the shooter will win or lose, or is a bet on what numbers will appear on upcoming rolls of the dice.

Upcoming posts will deal with the math of the game and what the odds are for different outcomes.

Let me close out this post by pointing out something which many people will try to lie about: The only winner in casino gambling is the owner of the casino. The math is set up so that the longer you play, the more likely you are to lose. It’s math- there is no way around it.

Even games like blackjack, where people try to convince you that they “count cards” and have a system to always win, are set up so the casino comes out ahead. If it weren’t, everyone who plays in the casino would soon adopt this system and the casino would go out of business. I don’t play to make money, I play because it entertains me. I also know that over the long term, I lose money in the casino. I just try to maximize gains and minimize losses. Here are my rules for gambling:

  • 1 I know that I will lose money over the long term. It is mathematically certain. So budget your gambling and stick to it.
  • 2 I gamble because it is fun and entertaining. If I ever find myself gambling while desperate to win because I need the money, it is time to quit.
  • 3 Don’t ever gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. If you are gambling your rent or grocery money, that isn’t entertainment, it’s desperation.

My wife initially didn’t like it, but then she came to realize that I Am responsible with it. Although the first time she came to the table and saw that I was making individual bets of over $100 and had more than $1200 on the table, she was a little nervous. At the time, she didn’t realize that it wasn’t my money I was gambling with. More on that in a future post.

Answer to this week’s logic problem

So the answer to this week’s logic problem: There would be the same number of boys as girls.

Here is the explanation:

This is a common misconception. It is the same misconception that makes gamblers believe that a certain number is “due.” As they say, the dice have no memory. For example:

Let’s say that 1 million couples have a child in round one. Half will have boys, half girls. So now there are 500K each of boys and girls.

The couples with girls must stop, the 500,000 with only boys are required to try again. So the 500,000 couples who had boys in round one have children, again half are boys and half girls. So now there are 750,000 each boys and girls.

The third round, the parents who had a girl stop, the 250,000 parents who don’t yet have a girl try again. So now another 125,000 boys are born, as are 125,000 girls. So now the running count is 875,000 boys, and 875,000 girls.

So as this progresses, the ratio will always be 50/50.

Logic Problem

Kamala Harris finally lives her dream and winds up becoming the President of the United States. She decides that the US will be better off if there were more women, so she signs an executive order:

Henceforth, all child bearing couples will be required to keep having children until they have a girl. To prevent overpopulation, once they do have a girl, they must stop having children.

Here is the riddle: After 20 years of this policy, what will be the ratio of boys to girls under the age of 18 in America?

Third Trump Impeachment

My apologies to Monty Python.

Pelosi: We have found an insurrectionist, may we burn him?
McConnell: How do you known he is an insurrectionist?
SWALLWELL: He looks like one!
Pelosi: Bring him forward
Trump: I’m not an insurrectionist! I’m not an insurrectionist!
McConnell: ehh… but you are dressed like one.
Trump: They dressed me up like this!
Democrats in unison: naah no we didn’t… no.
Trump: And this isn’t my nose, it’s a false one.
(McConnell lifts up carrot nose)
McConnell: Well?
PELOSI: Well we did do the nose
McConnell: The nose?
PELOSI: …And the hat, but he is an insurrectionist!
(all: yeah, burn him burn him!)
McConnell: Did you dress him up like this?
PELOSI: No! Yes. a bit! But he has got a wart!
Joe Biden: We’re gonna need more troops.
McConnell: What makes you think he is an insurrectionist?
AOC: Well, he had me assassinated!
McConnell: Assassinated?!
AOC: I got better.
Swalwell: Burn him anyway! McConnell: There are ways of telling whether he is an insurrectionist.
PELOSI: Are there? Well then tell us!
McConnell: Tell me… what do you do with insurrectionists?
P3: Burn’em! Burn them up! (burn burn burn)
McConnell: What do you burn apart from insurrectionists?
AOC: Books!
McConnell: and what are books made of?
Rep Hank Johnson: More troops!
McConnell: So, why do insurrectionists burn?
SWALLWELL: Cuz they’re made of… wood?
McConnell: Gooood.
McConnell: So, how do we tell if he is made of paper?
PELOSI: Print money on him!
McConnell: Ahh, but can you not also make money out of thin air?
PELOSI: Oh yeah…
McConnell: Does money sink in water?
PELOSI: No
AOC: No. It floats!
PELOSI: Let’s throw him into the swamp!
McConnell: What also floats in water?
PELOSI: Bread
Hunter Biden: Hookers!
SWALLWELL: Chinese women!
Hunter: Hookers!
Bernie Sanders: Free Tuition!
Rep Johnson: Won’t more troops tip Guam over?
PELOSI: Cherries
Biden: A Duck!
McConnell: Exactly! So, logically…
Pelosi(thinking): If he weighs the same as a book… he’s made of wood!
McConnell: And therefore,
(pause & think)
Pelosi: An insurrectionist!
McConnell: We shall use my largest scales.

Logic problem

I am a huge fan of logic problems. Here is one that took me awhile. Legend has it that it was written by Einstein. The problem goes like this:

  • There are five houses lined up next to each other along a street.
  • Each house is a different color
  • Each homeowner is of a different nationality, drinks a different beverage, smokes a different brand of cigar, and owns a different pet.
  • The Englishman lives in the house with red walls.
  • The Swede keeps dogs.
  • The Dane drinks tea.
  • The house with green walls is just to the left of the house with white walls.
  • The owner of the house with green walls drinks coffee.
  • The man who smokes Pall Mall keeps birds.
  • The owner of the house with yellow walls smokes Dunhills.
  • The man in the center house drinks milk.
  • The Norwegian lives in the first house.
  • The Blend smoker has a neighbor who keeps cats.
  • The man who smokes Blue Masters drinks beer.
  • The man who keeps horses lives next to the Dunhill smoker.
  • The German smokes Prince.
  • The Norwegian lives next to the house with blue walls.
  • The Blend smoker has a neighbor who drinks water.



    The question is: Who owns a pet fish? The answer later this evening…