As an addendum to my earlier post on the number of firearms in the US:
In 1997, the National Institute of Justice estimated that there were 200 million guns in private hands. (pdf not stored on this website alert)
From The Trace, which is hardly a right wing source:
According to historical ATF data, more than 465 million firearms have been produced for the U.S. market since 1899. This figure includes imports from foreign gunmakers but excludes exports by domestic gunmakers.
So the ATF thinks that 265 million firearms have been manufactured and imported since 1945? I don’t think that those numbers are accurate at all. The ATF claims that from 2013 to 2021, there were only 100 million guns introduced into the US market. We KNOW that there were 250 million NICS checks performed in that same time period. Are we to believe that the same 44 million gun owners went to a gun store and sold every gun in the nation 3 times over? That math just doesn’t add up.
The Federation of American Scientists took the numbers that The Trace used, and decided that there are 350 million firearms in the United States. They are estimating that 20,000 privately made firearms were added to the total in 2021. The estimate that less than 40,000 PMFs were made since 2016. We know that number is low, because law enforcement has reported recovering more than that many in the past 4 years alone.
No one has any idea how many firearms are in the US, but I am certain that however many there are, there are far more of them than the government and press think there are.
In comments, there was reference to JWR’s piece on gun confiscations, and a part of it bears quotation:
Rather than meeting the police one-at-a-time on their doorsteps, I predict that resisting gun owners will employ guerilla warfare strategy and tactics to foil the plans of the gun grabbers:
1.) They will successfully hide the majority of their banned guns. This is just what many Europeans did, following World War II. There are perhaps a million guns in Europe that were never registered or turned in, after the war. Particularly in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Spain, and Greece, there is still massive noncompliance. It has now been 73 years since the end of WWII. So the gun registration noncompliance in Europe is now multi-generational.
2.) They will form small, fully independent “phantom” resistance cells. This is commonly called leaderless resistance. Such cells are very difficult to detect or penetrate. These resistance cells will carefully choose the time and location of their attacks, to their advantage.
3.) They will individually target the legislators who voted for unconstitutional gun ban legislation. This will make it almost suicidal for these legislators to return to their home districts.
4.) They will individually target any outspokenly anti-gun police chiefs.
5.) They will target all BATF agents and FBI HRT agents–first with intimidation, and then with targeted killings.
6.) They will pillage or burn down the facilities where confiscated guns are being stored and destroyed.
7.) They will anonymously phone in false police reports about gun control advocates. (This is commonly called “SWATing.”)
8.) They will use time-delayed explosives, time-delayed incendiaries, time-delayed bursting toxin containers, cell phone-triggered IEDs, computer program worms and viruses, and long-range standoff weapons to minimize the risk of being detected, apprehended, or killed. Likely targets will be Federal buildings, courthouses, SWAT training facilities, police training ranges, and especially the private residences of anyone deemed to be a gun-grabber.
9.) They will use anonymous re-mailers and VPN to encourage others to resist by forming their own leaderless resistance cells.
10.) They will begin a War of Attrition on the Door Kickers, with tactics such as these:
A.) Ambushing SWAT vehicles while in transit, rather than waiting for the SWAT teams to set up raids.
B.) Ambushing individual SWAT team members at unexpected times and places–most likely at their homes.
C.) Sabotaging SWAT vehicles, most likely with time-delayed incendiaries.
D.) Targeting SWAT teams or individual team members while they are at home, in training, or when attending conventions.
E.) Harassing and intimidating individual SWAT team members and their families. The systematic burning of their privately-owned vehicles and their unoccupied homes and vacation cabins will be unmistakable threats.
11.) They will individually target “gun control” advocates, organizers, and group leaders.
12.) They will individually target the judges that issue gun seizure warrants.
13.) They will individually target journalists who have vocally advocated civilian disarmament.
14.) Some owners of M1 Carbines, AR-15s and HKs in the resistance movement will convert them to selective fire. (They will assume: “Well, if it is now a felony to possess a semi-auto, then what is the harm in making it a full auto?”)
15.) They will be willing to wage an ongoing guerilla warfare campaign using both passive and active resistance until the collectivists relent. This would be something like “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland, but on a larger scale, with greater ferocity, and with far more weapons readily available. Unlike the IRA, which had to import arms, all of the the firearms, magazines, and ammunition needed for any American resistance movement are already in situ. It is noteworthy that the agreed “Decommissioning” the Irish Republican Army (IRA) was delayed for more than five years because of their remaining caches of arms, which by then included only around 1,000 battle rifles!)
The only flaw that I see in JWR’s claims is to note that the resistance is not targeting the families of the gun grabbing cops, politicians, and journalists. The cops will shoot and target the families of gun owners. It is a common tactic of the police to threaten the families of their intended targets with child services taking their kids. Don’t think for a second that the families of gun grabbers will be off limits. While Mr Door Kicker is off raiding a gun owner’s house, or Corporal Drone Pilot is putting a Hellfire into the front door of the Second Amendment Foundation’s headquarters, someone will be at the grabbers’ houses, killing off their families.
Civil wars are always ugly. One like this will be no different.
11 Comments
Readit · July 8, 2023 at 10:35 pm
The Savagery …(I believe) thats what is going to stun people the most.
There Are No Rules…in this sort of thing. Only the ones people put on themselves.
And in turn the State will do The Same.
And it will grow with little to no control over it.
And ..it will become even worse.
Nasty times are inbound.
Be Prepared.
Toastrider · July 8, 2023 at 11:41 pm
Yup. I believe the late Mike Vanderboegh called it ‘Waco Rules’ or ‘Bosnian Rules of Engagement’.
Initially, I suspect the resistance would be hands off the enforcers’ families. After a few atrocities, though? It’ll be on. Michael Collins cosplay, right across the board.
I don’t want this — I don’t think anyone does, really. But boy, there’s some folks who think they can beat the house on this hand of cards.
Is This Fine · July 8, 2023 at 11:59 pm
At least the tweets won’t be mean and no vajayjays will be grabbed?
The replacements and Trojan Horse armies might get a craving for some grabbing.
May mommygov be there to referee. (insane maniacal laughter)
Anonymous · July 9, 2023 at 12:32 am
Q: Why do the Eastern Europeans water their window flowerboxes with motor oil?
A: So the guns don’t rust.
Beans · July 9, 2023 at 3:46 am
Pretty much. Add all the anti-gun nannies who will try to rat on their gun neighbors. The schools where the teachers have the children rat on their parents. The doctors who ask leading questions to children in order to find out hidden gunners.
Then there are afterschool programs where lots of anti-gunners work. Churches where anti-gunners rule.
Nannies everywhere. Spies everywhere. Snitches everywhere. Tattlers, loose tongues, everywhere. How many people in East Germany were reporting on other people in East Germany?
It’s a real problem. So shut up and watch who you’re talking to, about. Info control.
Thems the ones that get anonymous tips called in on. And SWATed.
SiG · July 9, 2023 at 8:48 am
IIRC, the basis of Weapons Man’s (old blog you referenced in the previous post) estimate of over 600 millions guns in the US was import records. I don’t remember the exactly what he added in but I’m personally convinced the number is closer to 800 million.
And JWR was not only right, he may have been too optimistic. It will be a level of ugly the world has never seen before.
Divemedic · July 9, 2023 at 9:08 am
I agree. While import and manufacturing records can help, any attempt at quantifying the number of firearms in the US is pure wild assed guessing. There just isn’t enough accurate data to do any more than make an estimate.
Jonesy · July 9, 2023 at 1:45 pm
I’m always curious about how this all starts. JWR presents a bleak and terrifying set of scenarios. Better or worse, I hope none of it happens. But the trigger for something like this….will it happen slowly or all at once? I see a slow but ever increasing infringement on our 2A. They have gotten away with quite alot up to this point, what gets things to critical mass? State legislatures, congress and the court system would have to break down to a point where more infringements are allowed.
I see more indirect attempts to limit our ability to exercise our 2A rights – digital currency- programmed so that you can’t buy firearms or ammo without government permission. Everyone’s finances are tied to banks. Confiscation of 401ks and bank accounts if you don’t comply with X or Y laws. How will you pay your mortgage or care for your family while raiding politicians and antgun cops while avoid being caught?
I think the slow strangulation of the right is what they are after. Moving too fast and causing physical conflict will too hard tol sell to the middle ground of the country(unless we initiate and they can exploit it like J6).
Gryphon · July 13, 2023 at 1:48 pm
Jonesy – ‘they’ have been trying the tactic of sloooowly increasing Restrictions on Guns for Decades. There are Hundreds of Millions of more Guns since even just the 1968 GCA. The numbers of Guns being Confiscated (Legally, because of a Crime, or Illegally by Fiat) per Year is so small as to be Irrelevant . As seen by the non-response to the Demand for “Pistol Braces” to be “registered”, no “Ban on Assault Weapons” will have meaningful ‘Voluntary Compliance’.
This means that Eventually, if the commie/bolsheviks running the ‘government’ really wants to “Ban Guns”, they will have to go with Forcible Confiscation attempts, and that will initiate an Armed Rebellion. I believe that the ONLY Reason they have not tried this already is that Fact that they KNOW it will result in Total Defeat of the government forces, no matter how many “UN Troops” and illegal aliens they throw at us. Mr. Rawles did an excellent job of “Math” in terms of how attempts at Gun Confiscation quickly Fail, and cannot work in the long term.
Jonathan · July 9, 2023 at 10:08 am
With PMFs, there isn’t much data and the data there is is suspect.
I assume the number is way higher than 20 or 40,000.
But also know that the government numbers are based on what the government asks LE to report – they pad the numbers of “ghost guns” by having departments report anything with a serial number not easily read. This includes not only PMFs, but also rusty or dirty guns, removed serial numbers, pre 1973 guns not required to have serial numbers, those with serial numbers under grips or accessories, etc.
My assumption is that very few criminals bother making their own guns; they can get factory ones easily, so why bother? (That is, if they have the intelligence and equipment to consider making their own guns, which a significant portion do not).
As with any statistics, you need to consider what is being counted and when.
Aesop · July 9, 2023 at 10:24 am
1) As SiG noted, and you’re well aware, WeaponsMan conservatively came to a number of greater than 600M weapons in private hands in the US a couple of years before his untimely departure. Depending on the fudge factor of unpapered weapons, including all black powder weaponry, the U.S. is within spitting distance of 1,000,000,000 privately-owned firearms, and well north of several trillion rounds of ammunition for them. IOW, more guns than the entire government forces of the United States and the next ten to fifteen countries combined, including Russia, China, and all of NATO.
2) The PIRA never had above 5K members, and they tied Britain and Ireland in knots for 60 years. A US resistance effort would muster that many members from some counties. There are over 3100 counties in the U.S.
3) Overall, if even a fraction of U.S. gun owners took it upon themselves to get sporky with TPTB (no small number of which would be de facto resistance members), the entire effort would likely be over in 3-5 volleys, sometime around Tuesday morning of any week where things kicked off Monday at 6AM. The largest effort to end any gun grab wouldn’t be driven by anti-government hatred, as much as by a desire to bag a fed before they ran out of targets. This would be a Butch & Sundance vs. The Bolivian Army kind of situation, with federal and local authorities playing the part of Butch & the Kid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geOqbM03Hf0
4) Stop teasing me.
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