This is to the people who commented on my post of last week, and that includes Aesop. Let me address a few of the points here.
- So we have rampant illegals entering the country. How do you stop that? Voting for Republicans? Where has that gotten us? Or do you want to head to the border and take on the cartels, US law enforcement, and the national guard? Is that the hill you literally want to die on?
- We haven’t built a refinery in 40 years. So? Are you going to use guns and force people to build some? Vote for one?
- You think you’re going to cause a societal collapse? How? You have a plan?
To Aesop: Yes, I believe that a collapse of this country is mathematically certain. There is no other possible outcome at this point. We are more than $31 trillion in actual debt, with another $50 trillion in mandated spending just in Social Security payments over the next decade. What do you think will happen to the first Congresscritter that proposes cutting those checks? His career will be measured in days. No politician is going near that third rail of politics. Top that off with another $4 trillion in interest payments on the debt we already have. In case you haven’t been paying attention, we are borrowing $1.2 trillion a year, and there is no motivation from either party to slow down the spending spree.
So even if you were to overthrow the powers that be, who do you put in charge? What will they do to fix it? Who in the American public will accept the fact that Uncle Sam has put away the checkbook? Will the 69 million people currently on Social Security accept the fact that the checks have stopped? How about the additional 10 million people who are due to begin collecting within the next 7 years? Will they accept the fact that there is no more money? How about the 93 million people on Medicaid? The 41 million on food stamps? 65 million on Welfare? Now I know that there is a good bit of overlap, but my best guess is that just about half of the country is receiving some form of government handout. What will they do when you, having overthrown the current powers that be, announce that there is no money?
One in 20 US adults is collecting disability. I personally know five people who are, and they seem to have no problems riding roller coasters, running marathons, and going out partying. There are lawyers out there that make a living on disability payments for “back injuries” and “fibromyalgia.” I warned my readers about this a decade ago. Then in 2016, I warned all of you that we were monetizing the debt, and it would eventually cause inflation.
Nope. Every path forward ends in one place: we stop spending more than we have.
There is no path to victory that results in a return to the good old days, whatever you consider those to be. It’s a fact. No matter who is in charge, we are broke. Republicans, Democrats, Whigs, Libertarians, it won’t matter. Once the rest of the world figures it out, there is going to be an end to the dollar as a reserve currency. Then when the general population realizes this, there will be plenty of unrest and riots for everyone to participate.
You can’t shoot your way out of this. You can’t protest it away. Mathematics and economics are cold-hearted, inescapable bitches. There aren’t any sides to join. You can’t cross over and join the side of math. Once the money is gone, it’s gone. Like a Terminator, economic reality can’t be bargained with, it can’t be reasoned with, and it will not stop until you are dead.
At the end of World War 2, this nation inherited a world where we were the most dominant manufacturing, farming, and economic nation in the world, mostly because the rest of the developed world had seen its farms and factories destroyed by warfare. This created a golden age for the US. Instead of continuing to work and maintain that standard of living, the Baby Boomers partied and spent it all on baubles and bullshit. Once that was gone, they began to borrow from future generations. It became a never ending spree of parties and excess. That’s why they won’t give up power today. They would rather be wheeled in to office looking like a moving corpse than give up power.
What’s unfortunate is that we, the Gen X people inherited the world that they created, and many of us tried to continue the party, but the money must eventually run out. So Generation X, the Millennials, and the Snowflake generation are going to inherit what is left: a dying society and a pile of unpaid bills.
When all of this comes to a head, we are going to get a new nation. My guess is that we will see one of two outcomes:
- A nation that is made up of the territory we have now, perhaps with some losses of territory that we just can’t defend (Alaska, Hawaii, the Pacific territories, Puerto Rico, and the counties located along the Mexican border) because we are out of money. That nation will likely wind up as a dictatorship.
- A nation that is made up of fractured pieces of what used to be the US. I think that in this outcome, the US will fracture into ten or more regional states. Again, the Pacific territories and Hawaii will belong to China. Alaska will either go to Russia or China. Large areas of the nation, centered around the largest cities, will become third world shitholes. Going anywhere within 50 miles of places like Chicago, Atlanta, New York, New Orleans, Saint Louis, or DC will mean taking your life in your hands.
If you want to see where we are headed, look no further than this post from 2010.
It’s gonna be shitty for awhile. So my position still stands. I will, of course, entertain anyone who sees another path forward. Tell me how I am wrong, or tell me how we avoid an economic collapse, and don’t tell me how you are going to get half the nation to accept the money hose getting shut off without tearing the nation apart. Heck, half of the people who read this blog will argue about how the DESERVE their social security checks, because they paid into the system for their entire working life. People just aren’t ready to admit that their money is gone- it’s been spent already. The boomers in charge have spent it all. There is no trust fund- it’s just a file cabinet full of IOUs.