Election Math

The Maryland lottery has a game called Pick 4. You pick a 4 digit number, and if it matches the number drawn at the lottery office, you win. Simple game, simple odds: The chances of matching all 4 digits is 1 in 10,000, or 0.0001%.

The chances of winning twice are 1 in 100 million. There is one player who has won that game 79 times in one single year. The odds of that happening are 1 in 10^315. In other words, it is statistically improbable to the point where we can call it impossible.

It isn’t just that one player. In fact, there are 8 players who won a staggering 200 or more times EACH. Two of these players won the Multi-Match game a combined 439 times for $919,300 in winnings, six players won Racetrax 1,247 times for $1.7 million, and five won the Pick 4 game 505 times for $1.6 million. It isn’t the first time that someone has scammed the lottery, but at least Pennsylvania caught their scammers.

That’s how random probability works. If I flip a fair coin, there is a 50% chance that it will be heads on any single flip. However, if I flip a coin ten times, the chances of it never being tails drops to one in 1,000.

Here is my point, and the reason for the title of this post. If you believe that one person winning the grand prize in a lottery drawing 79 times in a single year is evidence of cheating, I want you to consider this next math problem:

Let’s say that ninety people out of every one hundred in a fictional Maryland voting district voted for Biden. If I randomly pull any single ballot from that district, there is a 90% chance that it will be for Biden and a 10% chance that it will be for Trump. If I pull two random ballots, there is a one percent chance that both will be Trump votes, and an 81 percent chance both will be Biden votes.

What if I pulled 7,000 consecutive ballots? What would be the odds of not finding a single Trump vote? 1 in 10^321. Remember that the chances of someone winning the Pick 4 game in Maryland 79 times in a year are one in 10^315.

So when the vote counters in 2020 claim that they found 28,000 consecutive votes for Biden in one district without a single Trump vote, it makes me scream “bullshit.”

With our next election being only 74 days away, we will soon find out just how much the Democrats are willing and able to cheat in the midterms. That will be a large hint of what will follow in 2024.

EDITED: Thanks to It’s Just Boris for catching a math error in my post. It has been fixed.

My apologies for the math errors. I was juiced on Nyquil when I typed this post.

Remember

The person urging you to do illegal shit is probably an FBI agent. You can’t trust anyone, not even family. Even if you ARE among those you can trust, letting someone new into the group is a huge threat. That person may be, or may become, an informant.

Trust no one, or you may wind up like this guy.

The guy who keeps telling you he isn’t a cop? He is a cop. This guy was an undercover informant twice- for a total of over 10 years. How many people are in jail because this guy gave them a little nudge? Made a couple of suggestions? Keep in mind that informants only get their deal or get paid if they continue to serve up the goods. That means they will frame or entrap you, if that is what it takes for them to get whatever it is that the cops have promised them: clemency, leniency, or simply money.

It is nearly certain that some of the commenters on the blogs you read, perhaps even some of the bloggers themselves, are informants or even cops who would love to see you behind bars. The more tyrannical the government becomes, the more informants there will be.

Comport yourselves accordingly.

Consent of the Governed

The NY Times claims that the left should no longer constrain themselves by having to follow the “broken” and “famously undemocratic” U.S. Constitution which “stands in the way” of “real” freedom and democracy.

I would post a link directly to it, but it is behind a paywall. It doesn’t matter. I get the point. Here is mine:

The Constitution is a contract between the people and the government. It follows the basic theory that was in existence at the time of the founding: that people found governments to protect their rights. Governments rule with the consent of those being governed. Getting rid of that constitution removes that consent and ensures that the government from that point forward is not ruling with our consent, but instead by force.

Without a Constitution, the government will have admitted that it is illegitimate and ruling through the barrel of a gun, rather than the consent of the governed. At least at that point, they won’t be bothering to even hide it any longer.

This is why I don’t want to

I saw this post today over at Wirecutter’s about the government demanding the identifying information of people who post things critical of the government/FBI/cops. Wirecutter said:

Yeah, keep that in mind next time you leave a comment on a blog about killing feds.

I can guarantee you that this will extend to blogs and different blogging hosts will fall all over themselves to turn over information about people leaving threats, even if they are just venting.

That is the exact reason why I don’t want people who post comments here to have to register. I don’t collect information on anyone who posts here. I don’t want to know who you are. I can’t be forced to turn over information that I don’t possess.

With that being said, making threats is just a good way to be on the radar. My advice to anyone who is opposed to what is happening is this: be the gray man. Don’t be on the radar.

Energy Prices Still Climbing

Natural gas prices were $2.50 per million BTUs when Joe Biden took office. Today, natural gas hit $10 per million BTUs. In Europe, it’s even worse- an incredible $79 per million BTUs, mostly because wind power in Europe is significantly underproducing.

If there is any economic indicator that has improved since Biden took office, I can’t find it.

Oil Reserves Update

Just less than a month ago, I warned that the strategic oil reserve was being destroyed by the Biden administration in a bid to force down gasoline and energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, and that the Biden family was personally profiting from the sale of our national reserves. The reserve is now down to 460,000 barrels.

Oil is selling at $100 per barrel as I type this, and gas prices are averaging $3.89 per gallon.

Just a week ago, Goldman Sachs was forecasting oil prices of $130 per barrel and gas prices of more than $5 per gallon by year’s end. These are the levels “at which we need to see sustained prices to eventually solve the market deficit,” said the company spokesman. Translated: prices for everything will be so high that demand will begin to drop off.

Except that isn’t where Sachs is stopping with their forecast. They are now forecasting that oil prices will continue to drop through the election, with a gradual rise to $125 per barrel by next summer. I wonder how accurate that will be, since 2020 saw them forecasting 2022’s oil prices to be $55 a barrel.

Hollow Shell

Now the special warfare community is falling to this woke nonsense. The Navy SEALS are reporting that they spend more time on diversity training than they do on actual combat training.

And we only have X amount of hours in the day. And so you have a two hour training block. It’s not two hours — you’ve got to add half an hour ahead or half an hour after. So you’re looking at really three hours. So three hours is what, 600 hours? Just do the math on that, and then multiply that across the entire Department of Defense.

Retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden

I’ve been saying for awhile that our military is rotting from the inside out and from the top down.

It has me wondering. What if the so-called nuclear secrets possessed by Trump were reports that things have gotten just as bad in some part of our strategic forces? It isn’t as if the Air Force hasn’t already alluded to the fact that they can’t maintain a nuclear ground alert force. The Air Force only has 66 nuclear bombers remaining, out of the more than 600 that were once available for nuclear alert.

Graft, greed, and corruption form those who nominally serve have gutted the picked over carcass of what was once the greatest nation the world had ever seen. That nation doesn’t exist any longer.