Divemedic

Obligation

My 20 year old nephew, who I have written about in the past, still lives with his parents. He talked my brother into letting his 17 year old girlfriend (who is still attending high school) live in the house with them. She announced last month that she is pregnant. They have no plans on getting married, but do intend to continue living with my brother.

My nephew has no job, his pregnant girlfriend is still in high school, and is living in my brother’s house.

They had themselves a gender reveal party. Her family was there, and I got to meet them for the first time. A hint to what kind of people they are was to be found in front of my brother’s house. This is a picture of the rear window of one of their cars.

Yes, the girlfriend’s brother is a full on Antifa member. They all have “medical marijuana” cards (nephew, and pregnant girlfriend’s family) and retreated to the back yard to smoke up.

Let’s just say that I did not exactly enjoy the afternoon.

By Divemedic, ago

Patience

Skeptic comments on my last post:

Oh, spare me all the guns bullshit. Guns are worthless without the will to fire them, and if anything has been proven in the last year it’s that those vaunted gun owners don’t have the will to fire. We already have tyranny and nary a shot has been fired. They will usher the rest of the cattle cars before getting on themselves.

I read the best explanation on what that is, just this morning. It came from a comment to this article, and reads like this:

The most terrifying force of death comes from the hands of ‘Men who wanted to be left Alone.’ They try, so very hard to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know the moment they fight back, the lives as they have lived them, are over. The moment the ‘Men who wanted to be left Alone’ are forced to fight back, it is a small form of suicide. They are literally killing off who they used to be.

Perhaps the Declaration of Independence said it even better:

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

Remember that the founders of this nation endured the abuses of the King for decades.

  • 1763: The Grenville Acts (taxation without representation) were passed
  • 1765: The Stamp Act, the Virginia Resolution, and the Quartering Act were all passed.
  • 1766: Parliament rescinds the Stamp Act, but then passes the Declaratory Act, and subsequently disbands the New York Legislature.

and so on. This went on until 1776, when the Declaration of Independence was signed. It took 14 years of increasing hostilities, ever more despotic action, and escalating violence for the war to start.

The reason it took so long was as stated above: As soon as a revolution begins, the way of life that existed before is over. No matter what happens, all that you knew before is over. People aren’t ready to throw all of that away lightly.

This is where patience and perseverance are important. There is a time to let things play out, and this is it.

By Divemedic, ago

No go zones

Even when they call 911 for help, citizens near 38th street and Chicago Avenue in Minneapolis (the area called “George Floyd Square”) will get no help. Why? Because police have abandoned the area due to the threat of violence. It is an area where police, and to a large extent white people, are not welcome.

This is right out of the CIA insurgency handbook, which describes the second of the three phases of a revolution:

Phase II (guerrilla warfare phase) is the first level of armed violence. Irregular forces engage in sabotage, interdiction of communication and logistics links, assassination, and selective attacks against government forces. Insurgents expand their secure base areas and, where possible, link them to form strategic enclaves of political autonomy.

The second phase continues until it has caused the government to lose authority and legitimacy. This is soon followed by financial collapse, a breakdown in authority, strong symbolic actions, and perception of dual sovereignty or provisional authority, among others.

A great example of this would be Northern Ireland in 1972 was in the crisis state. The maintenance of barricaded “no-go” and “free” zones in Derry/Londonderry and Belfast during this period contributed to perceptions of provisional authority and separation of resistance from opponents. This is exactly what is happening.

Citizens then cry out for protection. The would be revolutionaries then step in and restore order. The revolutionary forces are then seen as a better solution than the now ineffective government.

This is where we are headed.

By Divemedic, ago

Show trials

So now the show trials to eliminate political opposition to the Communists continue. One Oregon lawmaker is being charged with allowing his constituents to protest terrorists to enter the Capitol back in December when he allowed protesters terrorists to enter and protest COVID restrictions, er disrupt the business of government, uh, attempt subversive activity.

Meanwhile, these people were permitted to do the same thing with nary a word said, right there in the rotunda. Of course, they were disputing the dismissal of Trump’s first impeachment charges, to the commies don’t care about that.

Ditto for the Antifa terrorists who tried to prevent the inauguration in 2017. No one that did so was charged with insurrection, nor was a division of troops needed to install Trump in the White House.

But hey, we will get ’em next time, right? Do you still believe that?

By Divemedic, ago

Craps & probability

This is a follow up to my post from the other day on craps. Before we get into actual betting, I want to talk about probability. In craps, you are rolling two dice, each with six sides. This means that there are 6^2 (36) possible combinations of the dice: 1 and 1, 1 and 2, 1 and 3, and so on and so forth.

The reason this matters is that this makes each roll of the dice a random event: each combination is as likely to occur as any other. This is an important concept. If I flip a coin 100 times, there is no way to predict the next result of a coin toss because each event is random. ‘Heads’ is just as likely to come up as ‘tails.’ The coin doesn’t care if the last ten flips were all heads, the next toss still has the same odds of coming up heads: 50%. If you keep track of the result each time that coin is flipped, the more you flip it, the closer you will be to a 50/50 split.

What causes the “streaks” and “runs” of a random system is due to something called ‘distribution variance’ and is the reason why you see people say that a number is “due” for one reason or another. This is because people tend to see patterns even when there aren’t any. It is a random system, and each result is as likely as the other.

The same is true with dice. If I toss them enough times, you will see a pattern emerge. Out of each 36 attempts (on average), two will come up once (a one and a one). So will twelve (a six and a six). Seven will make an appearance six times (1&6, 2&5, 3&4, 4&3, 5&2, 6&1) and is the most likely number to come up. If I make a chart, it will look like this:

  • 2: 1/1
  • 3: 1/2 2/1
  • 4: 1/3 2/2 3/1
  • 5: 1/4 2/3 3/2 4/1
  • 6: 1/5 2/4 3/3 4/2 5/1
  • 7: 1/6 2/5 3/4 4/3 5/2 6/1
  • 8: 2/6 3/5 4/4 5/3 6/2
  • 9: 3/6 4/5 5/4 6/3
  • 10: 4/6 5/5 6/4
  • 11: 5/6 6/5
  • 12: 6/6

This makes the math pretty easy. Let’s go back to the first roll of the dice:

If the shooter rolls a 7 or an 11, they win. There are 8 chances of each 36 rolls on average that will result in a win on the come out roll.

If the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12, they lose. There are 4 chances out of each 36 rolls that the shooter will lose.

Any other number becomes the point. That means that 24 of each 36 rolls will result in setting the point.

Now seeing that, you would assume that betting on the shooter would result in you winning twice as often as you lose, and you would be right, if the come out roll was viewed in isolation. The catch here is that if the point is set, the bet must remain in play until the shooter either rolls that number again (and wins) or rolls a seven (and loses). Since seven is more likely than any other number, it is more likely that you will lose your money than it is that you will win. Still, with all of that, betting on the come out roll (called a pass line bet) is the best bet in the casino.

Why is that? Because the come out has the smallest house advantage of any other bet you can make in the entire casino- that includes slots, Blackjack, Roulette, any other bet in any other game. For example: In Nevada, slot machines over the long term pay out 80 cents of every dollar that is wagered. The house keeps 20 cents of every dollar- 20%. This is called the house edge.

In roulette, the house edge is the 0 and 00 spaces on the wheel. This means that the house edge (if you bet black/red or odd/even) is 5.26%. The house keeps 5.26 cents of each dollar wagered.

In Craps, the house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41 percent. That is, out of each dollar, the casino only keeps 1.41 cents.

Still, if the house ALWAYS has an edge, why gamble? Because you CAN win in the short term, thanks to distribution variance. If you find yourself in one of those “hot streaks” you can make a good bit of money. If you are in a cold streak, you can lose a LOT of money.

Let’s go back to our example of flipping a coin. Let’s say I flip a coin 10 times. Even though the odds are 50/50 for heads or tails, it is likely in such a small number of flips that you will see a streak like this: 7 heads, 3 tails. If you are betting heads, you make a lot. If you had bet on the tails, you could lose a lot. This is what makes gambling fun, if you don’t go buck wild. In future posts, I will explain betting and how to do well playing this game.

By Divemedic, ago

Uniform aggravation

When I began my new job, I was told that I needed to wear scrubs. I could wear any color except black, denim, camouflage, or pediatric prints. So I got blue and dark red. Five sets, at $40 each set.

Two months later, and the announcement was made that they are changing the color schemes. We are going to be color coded by our job. I will be required to wear teal. The change goes into effect October 1.

So now I have $200 in scrubs that will not be wearable, another set of unreimbursed scrubs to buy, and employee expenses are no longer tax deductible.

By Divemedic, ago

The press is the enemy

In comments to this article:

My comment, which I don’t think violated the TOS, was moderated and will not appear on the site. No bias here, nope.

EDITED TO ADD: I showed this to my wife, and her reply was “It’s their website, they can do what they want.”

I don’t want anyone to think that I support making their bias illegal. I am, however calling them out for being lying hypocrites for making the claim that the press is an unbiased purveyor of the truth. I am also calling social media for blocking so-called “false news” when their version is no closer to the truth than any other.

By Divemedic, ago

Inflation

Peter over at Bayou Renaissance Man says that readers claim inflation isn’t here. Let me show you how it sneaks up on you. A Denny’s commercial from 1997:

Note that one of those breakfasts was this one:

2 strips of bacon, two link sausages, two eggs, and two pancakes. This is the breakfast that Denny’s calls the “Original Grand Slam.” For $1.99.

How much is this breakfast now? $9.29, or 467% more than it was 24 years ago. That works out to an annual inflation rate of 6.7%. The published rates for that period were anything from negative 0.2 all the way to 3.0. The official inflation rates say that this breakfast should only cost $3.28 today.

When I was in high school nearly 40 years ago, I remember being able to go to McDonald’s and eat my fill for less than $4. A Big Mac was only $1.09. Krystal Hamburgers were 25 cents. Compare them to today’s prices.

It isn’t just food. In 1999, you could purchase gasoline for less than $1 a gallon. The hit is even larger than that- because in 2005, Congress mandated that all gasoline be diluted with alcohol.

But wages haven’t kept pace. In 2000, the starting pay for a Paramedic right out of school was $14 an hour. Today, that same new paramedic would start at – $13 an hour.

Prices have been increasing at a rate of 6 to 7 percent per year, while wages have remained static.

By Divemedic, ago