Divemedic

Answer to this week’s logic problem

So the answer to this week’s logic problem: There would be the same number of boys as girls.

Here is the explanation:

This is a common misconception. It is the same misconception that makes gamblers believe that a certain number is “due.” As they say, the dice have no memory. For example:

Let’s say that 1 million couples have a child in round one. Half will have boys, half girls. So now there are 500K each of boys and girls.

The couples with girls must stop, the 500,000 with only boys are required to try again. So the 500,000 couples who had boys in round one have children, again half are boys and half girls. So now there are 750,000 each boys and girls.

The third round, the parents who had a girl stop, the 250,000 parents who don’t yet have a girl try again. So now another 125,000 boys are born, as are 125,000 girls. So now the running count is 875,000 boys, and 875,000 girls.

So as this progresses, the ratio will always be 50/50.

By Divemedic, ago

Your fault

There is a New York Times story that talks about how some Texas utility consumers faced 5 digit bills during the recent storm. They are painting the utility as being greedy, and the state government as inept, because of the steep rise in costs.

Of course, I have a different opinion. The culprit here is consumers and their lack of understanding of fundamental economics. Texas has a largely unregulated, pure supply and demand system. One provider, Gridly, charges consumers a flat $9.99 monthly fee and allows consumers to pay the wholesale rate for electricity. This results in cheap electric bills in normal times.

During abnormal times, like a blizzard or hurricane, wholesale prices skyrocket as utility providers shutdown because of the disaster and what power is left comes at higher prices due to its scarcity. That is supply and demand at work. Gridly even warned its customers that the prices were going to increase, and advised them to switch to another provider.

Many didn’t, for whatever reason. The power for them stayed on, but at prices that were up to 100 times more than normal. They claim that they could see the bill climbing, but could do nothing about it. Bullshit.

Turn off the breakers.

You ALWAYS have choices. You were told to switch providers, and you didn’t. You knew the prices were climbing, and knew you could turn off the power, but you didn’t.

Instead, you complain about “price gouging” AFTER the fact, and demand that mommy and daddy government come bail you out of the results of your own bad choices. Everyone warned you, and you ignored the warnings.

So now the government will likely pass laws preventing this from happening again. All this means is that companies like Gridly who were able to keep the lights on during a disaster, thus giving people an option (admittedly a higher priced option), will not be there next time.

By Divemedic, ago

Logic Problem

Kamala Harris finally lives her dream and winds up becoming the President of the United States. She decides that the US will be better off if there were more women, so she signs an executive order:

Henceforth, all child bearing couples will be required to keep having children until they have a girl. To prevent overpopulation, once they do have a girl, they must stop having children.

Here is the riddle: After 20 years of this policy, what will be the ratio of boys to girls under the age of 18 in America?

By Divemedic, ago

Follow the science

A comment on my COVID post from the 17th makes me want to explain some science so we can all understand why the COVID rates are dropping. When a PCR test is done, the lab is looking for the genetic material of the specific organism that is being tested for. The test detects the presence of a virus if you are infected at the time of the test. The test could also detect fragments of virus even after you are no longer infected. The PCR test is the “gold standard” test for diagnosing COVID-19 because it’s the most accurate and reliable test. That, however, doesn’t mean that the PCR test can’t be fiddled with.

For those of you who have knowledge on this subject, you will see that I am greatly simplifying this material. Please bear with me and understand that I am trying to make a complex subject easy to understand.

When any lab test is done, there is a threshold value that is set, so that any quantity that is detected above that value is indicative of a “positive” result. In order for a PCR test to detect genetic material, the levels of genetic material in the sample must be “amplified” to make small amounts of material detectable, sort of like turning up the “gain” on an amplifier.

Just like in an amplifier, when you turn up the gain, the background noise gets amplified as well as the information that you are looking for. If you turn it up high enough, you get a “positive” result even though the amounts of genetic material are so small that the person isn’t able to infect anyone, and doesn’t even have symptoms.

This amplification is called Cycle Threshold. Cycle threshold (Ct or Cq) is the number of times (cycles) a sample has to be amplified before the genetic material of the virus can be detected. A low Ct value indicates a strong viral load because it took less amplification to detect the virus. A high Ct value indicates a weak viral load because the sample had to be amplified many more cycles to detect it.

So why does this matter? It means our government has been using the rise in the number of PCR positives to influence and determine policy when “the science” suggests that using PCR positives to determine how the pandemic is advancing is impossible without clinical context. What’s worse, is these PCR tests are hyper sensitive because they record positive results for samples that have a cycle threshold of 35 to 40.

In fact, most of the high COVID case levels were due to the Ct being set at a very high level, to the point that most of the signal was noise. Then on January 20, an hour after Biden was sworn in, the WHO sent out a memo telling labs to use a much lower Ct.

So surprise, surprise, now COVID infections are down 68% from December. Joe Biden is a miracle worker and has fixed all of the damage caused by the “former occupant” as Joe likes to refer to him.

By Divemedic, ago

BREAKING: Gun store shooting

Early reporting says there are three dead and two injured. A man entered the gun outlet with a loaded, unholstered firearm. A clerk told him he should not have a loaded gun until he got inside the range. An argument ensued, and shots were fired. Two individuals were killed before he was engaged by other customers of the store, who were injured in the firefight. Other customers outside of the store also engaged the gunman, who was one of the three people who died in the firefight.

By Divemedic, ago

Rent control

In reference to the article that was the subject of yesterday’s post on evictions, there is this comment:

Maybe it’s time for nationwide rent control. We can set a specific allowable profit percentage on all rentals and take greed out of the mix. Kinda like they do for public utilities. You want an increase, you petition the oversight board and prove you need it.

Communism always starts by vilifying the landlords.

By Divemedic, ago

Flyover economics

One of my favorite things to do is travel. I do a lot of it. By road, air, or cruise ship, I love it all. In the seven years my wife and I have been together, we have been to 48 states and 16 foreign countries. We typically take no fewer than 2 plane trips, 4 cruises, and 10 road trips a year. This allows me to compare travel from before COVID to travel now. Let’s take a look at the economics (or lack thereof) in “flyover country,” as the elites are find of calling the areas that are not NYC, DC, or LA.

Starting with my favorite city to visit: Las Vegas. There is something in Vegas for everyone: eco-tours, gambling, the club scene, fabulous restaurants, people watching, and the incredible spectacles of the mega-casinos. We ended 2019 there. We went back in July of 2020. In the intervening 7 months, I can tell you- Las Vegas is dying. It’s being killed by this COVID panic. If you read today’s wire story, you will see that things are not looking any better. Tourism year to date for Las Vegas is down 55%, tourism for 2020 was down 64%.

Orlando is hurting as well. The year 2020 saw a 34% reduction in tourism for the entire state, even though our governor is doing all that he can to keep the state open for business. The tourist areas of Orlando are a ghost town. That isn’t being helped by the left wing county mayor, who has a ‘strike team’ of jack booted thugs travelling the county in search of businesses that are not following his dictates. Most of the hotels in the tourist corridor are empty, with the exception of the national guard troops being housed near the convention center to help run the vaccine center. Most eateries are closed. It frankly was depressing the last time we were there in September.

We visited Savannah, Georgia the week before Thanksgiving. We are familiar with the city. Since it is a 4 hour drive from here, it is closer even than Miami and great for weekend getaways.

Unfortunately, it is a college town and therefore run by a Democrat mayor who is an absolute nut when it comes to mask mandates. Ghost tours, bus tours, walking tours, all of them were at reduced capacity. The restaurants where we love to dine have far fewer customers, and the hotels are not running nearly as full. Even tourism sites are a bit stupid about it.

We also went to Biloxi, MS in July. There isn’t much to do there at the best of times. Certainly not now. The only good thing that can be said is that the pool at the casino resorts isn’t very crowded.

So there is a quick look at the nation. In short, the government and the restrictions they are imposing are what is killing America, not COVID.

By Divemedic, ago

Vaccine

I am bringing this to you because all of the major media, as well as social media, have admitted that they have become the official propaganda arm of the Biden administration.

1.- Can I stop wearing the mask?
Government: No
2.- Can they reopen restaurants, pubs, bars etc and everyone work normally?
Government: No
3.- Will I be resistant to covid?
Government Response – Maybe, but we don’t know exactly, it probably won’t stop you getting it
4.- At least I won’t be contagious to others anymore?
Government Response – No, it doesn’t stop transmission.
5.- If I am vaccinated, can I stop social distancing?
Government: No
6.- If I am vaccinated, can I stop disinfecting my hands?
Government: No
7.- If I vaccinate myself and my grandparents, can we hug each other?
Government: No
8.- Will cinemas, theatres and stadiums operate as per normal thanks to vaccines?
Government: No
9.- What is the benefit of the vaccine?
Government Response – We are hoping the virus won’t kill you.
10.- Are you sure it won’t kill me?
Government: No
11.- If statistically the virus won’t kill me anyway (99.7% survival rate) … Why would I get vaccinated?”
Government Response – To protect others.
12.- So if I get vaccinated, I can protect 100% of people I come in contact with?
Government: No, the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission

  1. – Isn’t that why we are wearing a mask?

Government response: We realized masks didn’t work, so now we are asking that you wear two.

  1. Can you guarantee that I won’t experience adverse affects from taking the vaccine or die from the vaccine itself?
    Government Response – No
  2. – Since you’re encouraging every American to get vaccinated then when people experience severe adverse reactions, long term effects (still unknown) or die from the vaccine will they or their families be compensated?
    Government response: NO – the government and vaccine manufactures have 100% zero liability in experimental stages.
  3. -How long does the vaccine last?
    Government response- we aren’t sure.
By Divemedic, ago