Statistics

In order for a statistical analysis of a set of numbers to take place, there are a few things that must be done.
The data set must be random. If it isn’t, you suffer from selection bias. For example, if all of a person’s friends tell them that they were going to vote for HRC, they would have been surprised that Trump won the election. This is because their sample wasn’t random.

The sample must also be large enough to be significant. When measuring a large data set or population, like a workforce, you don’t always need to collect information from every member of that population – a sample does the job just as well. The trick is to determine the right size for a sample to be accurate. Using proportion and standard deviation methods, you are able to accurately determine the right sample size you need to make your data collection statistically significant.

When studying a new, untested variable in a population, your proportion equations might need to rely on certain assumptions. However, these assumptions might be completely inaccurate. This error is then passed along to your sample size determination and then onto the rest of your statistical data analysis.

That is what is happening now to statistical analysis of Wuhan virus numbers. We have a data set that tells us how many people had the disease at the time of testing. There are a couple of assumptions there that are making those numbers worthless.

  • We didn’t test people at all before we were aware of the Wuhan virus. So we have no idea how many people had it, or what the outcome of their case was. 
  • The people who were tested at first were only tested if they had been travelling to certain countries, so people who had the disease and had not traveled recently were not part of the data set. 
  • The people who were tested didn’t have the Wuhan V on the day they were tested. That doesn’t mean that had not already had it months before, nor does it mean that they didn’t get it days or weeks later. 

The state of Florida thinks that since they have tested a large percentage of the state that they can predict what will happen. The numbers we have now cannot be used for a statistical analysis because they are not random. We are also assuming that the people who tested negative didn’t get it later, and didn’t have it earlier. This makes it impossible to determine the CFR.

House Fire

Last night, my wife reported hearing a buzzing noise, but I couldn’t find anything. This morning while enjoying our quarantine breakfast, we smelled burning plastic. Smelled electrical to me. I began looking around, and poked at an electrical outlet. That is when flames shot out of the wall. The fire is out, and there is some electrical work that needs to be done. Not much damage, and everyone is OK.

Good thing we were quarantined at home to catch it while it was small. Had we been at work, the fire could have been bad.

The FDA gets into the tyranny game

Yesterday, the FDA made a major announcement. They have banned all self service food dispensing. This one order will cause at least 100,000 people to lose their jobs.

Help customers maintain good infection control and social distancing by:

  • Discontinuing operations, such as salad bars, buffets, and beverage service stations that require customers to use common utensils or dispensers.   
  • Finding ways to encourage spacing between customers while in line for service or check out in accordance with the applicable State or local requirements.
  • Discouraging customers from bringing pets — except service animals — into stores or waiting areas.

This is going to have wide ranging effects across the entire country, and has already put at least two nationwide restaurant chains out of business. Garden Fresh restaurants has announced that it will be closing its 97 SouPlantation  locations and its 97 Sweet Tomatoes locations as a result of the FDA’s order.

  • This will affect drink stations in fast food locations like Subway, McDonald’s, WaWa, Racetrack, 7-eleven, and others. 
  • It means an end to companies like Golden Corral, Sizzler, CiCi’s, along with every Chinese and Indian food buffet in the country. 
  • Other companies will have to change their business: PizzaHut’s lunch buffet is gone, and along with it is Chevy’s salsa bar, and this also kills the salad bar in every restaurant. 
  • Casinos will have to get rid of their buffets. (I will miss these. The buffets in Las Vegas and Biloxi are outstanding.)
  • Hotels that offer free breakfast are also gone, as is the common use coffee pot. 

All of this despite the fact that there is no evidence that this was a common source for COVID infections, and not one word about the New York subway system.

The order doesn’t stop there. Even though there is not one shred of evidence that animals transmitted COVID, they are saying that only service animals are allowed in restaurants. If this were really being done to halt COVID, then why even allow service animals? Even arguing that animals are a health hazard and service animals are a necessary risk, there is no system in place to ensure that the animal really is a service animal.

It seems like every government agency is using the Wuhan virus to expand their reach. “Let no crisis go to waste,” indeed.

Antivaxxer horseshit

There is a video running around social media where a woman claiming to be a virology researcher is claiming that the entire vaccine system is fabricated by big pharmaceutical companies to purposely make people sick. She claims that she discovered that the COVID pandemic has been manufactured by Dr Fauci and the US government. She has made a documentary referring to it as the “Plandemic.”

The woman who made this video has been well known among anti-vaxxers and has now turned her attention to COVID. Many of my right leaning friends have latched on to this BS and are claiming that the entire COVID pandemic has been manufactured,

The woman who is at the center of this was discredited, jailed, and bankrupt, having to work as a Las Vegas bartender. She claims that she was jailed for discovering that AIDS was a manufactured crisis. Let me post some links to a few facts:

Heavy did a piece on her. I include this because there are links in the article to court cases, bot because Heavy is a primary source.

The supposed miracle breakthrough that she discovered? The one she claims got her thrown in jail? Well, that study was retracted after being discredited in a most embarrassing way. The NY TImes covers that here.  It turns out that she was jailed for stealing (and co-opting others to steal) materials from the University of Nevada.

You can find the history of her retractions here.

She trumpets being published in the magazine Science, but that same magazine later retracted her article after nine different laboratories were unable to replicate her results. They reported on her again here. 

The Chicago Tribune did a story on her discrediting here.

So after posting all of that information, this is a typical response that I get:

I get that you can post things from ‘Heavy.com ‘ and the garbage Tribune. And I respect that you have different views than I do, but allow me to respectfully disagree on this one. I BELIEVE her. She has the most calm, rational testimony I have seen in a long time. There is a REASON they are constantly removing her video. There is a REASON they issued a Gag order. I already thought Fauci was a quack. He has made Millions, and killed Millions. Nothing will change my mind on this. I just hope she isn’t eliminated like the Chinese doctor was a couple days ago. Hope you have a great day my friend. 

The people on the right, especially the quack antivax people are arguing against evidence and against reason to the point where they say that NOTHING can change their mind. I just can’t deal with all of the conspiracy theory people who see Illuminati in every world event.

My son was livestreaming reports from NYC in an attempt to help his medical friends learn from his experiences in treating COVID. He was hoping that he could save lives by letting people see what worked or didn’t work. He had to stop because too many people were accusing him of being a part of the “Plandemic” and saying that he was a crisis actor.

I normally do not delete any comments, even those that disagree with my position. However, since the conspiracy anti vaxxers are publicly stating that they have abandoned reason, anyone who posts on this page a comment that makes an accusation of any conspiracy with regards to COVID or references any sort of a “Plandemic” without a link to a primary source or valid scientific study will have their comments deleted without warning. If you want to post that shit without a valid source to back you up, do it on someone else’s blog.

Any studies that involve Judy Mikovits or Andrew Wakefield will not be accepted. Both of those researchers have been repeatedly discredited.

EDITED To add: User  “Wayne” has insisted on continuing to post antivax horseshit, even after the above notes AND having his first post deleted. He instead decided to continue his diatribe abd then accuse me of trying to have a “monopoly.” My blog, my rules.

Because I have had to delete multiple posts from this guy, comments for this post are locked.

Harlem, getting back to normal

My son just got back to his hotel after working the night shift in New York City. He said that the hospital where he is working is getting back to normal. They are no longer seeing any COVID patients. Last night was a parade of homeless people with vague complaints looking for a place to sleep, one shooting, a stabbing, and a bunch of drug and alcohol complaints. The hospital is not a cardiac or a stroke center, so they don’t see much in the way of serious calls.

They are closing the subways every night between 1 and 5 am. The police go through and kick all of the homeless out of the subway at that time. The homeless shelters have a curfew: if a homeless person isn’t there by midnight, they cannot get in until 6 am the next morning. That means that the EDs at all of the hospitals are filled with homeless who were drunk or high, missed curfew, and were also unable to sleep it off in the subway. They come to the ED with vague complaints, and the staff lets them sleep in the lobby.

The hospitals are beginning to send medical surge workers home and return to normal staffing. Here in Florida, that means that there are 4 patients maximum per nurse in the emergency room. In NYC, that number is much higher: 16 patients per nurse. Providers (Doctors, PAs, and NPs) are similarly stretched thin. As the surge workers leave, workloads are increasing. So, my son tells me that even if he could extend, paying him as much as they are still isn’t worth it for the increasing workload.

Medical drugs are always on short supply: even without the COVID crisis, hospitals are chronically out of everything.

On top of that, he says that the entire place smells like pot and urine, and the New Yorkers are using drugs that are almost unheard of in other places. He has seen people OD on things like PCP, which is not even a thing down here in Florida.

He also said that living in New York is a great reminder of why he can’t ever vote Democrat. The entire city, according to him, is dysfunctional. Everything is broken and costs four times what it should. He complains that all levels of government pour billions into the city of New York, and all the residents manage to do with it is hand out special favors in graft and corruption, blow it on drugs and alcohol, and then live in a dirty city filled with losers who can’t hold a job because they are high and drunk most of the time. They didn’t even realize that failing to clean the subways in the middle of a pandemic and allowing unwashed, homeless drug abusers with mental problems live in the same dirty subway cars that are the primary transportation for 6 million people a day could possibly lead to widespread illness. 

So, he will be home at the conclusion of this contract, early June. He is looking forward to that, and tells me that he can’t wait for the next New Yorker in Florida who tries to tell him how great it was back home in New York.