The state of Florida is refusing to admit new inmates to its state prisons. Meanwhile, counties are beginning to release inmates, in order to prevent the spread of this virus.
Crime will increase as this goes on.
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Idiocy
You can prepare all you want, but morons can throw a wrench into your plans. Even though schools are closed, the school where my wife works is insisting that the order from the state only applies to students and is demanding that teachers return to work at the conclusion of spring break next Monday.
Meanwhile, there is a COVID case less than 5 miles from my home. It is likely that the restaurants and stores in the area have been frequented by the patient. The more we leave the house, the more likely it is that we will wind up catching it.
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Numbers being manipulated
I don’t know if the problem is in the government’s reporting, or if it is in the reporting, but this is odd. For the past week there have only been 10 critical patients, but in that same time period 53 people have died. I don’t know how the number of critical patients remains the same while the death toll climbs.
Finally, today the critical patient count increased to 12.
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Mexico now wants a wall
Donald Trump was right- we are going to build a wall, and Mexico is going to pay for it.
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Physical security
Florida gets frequent hurricanes. We are used to prepping for stuff. With that being said, the stores here have gone nuts. The local grocery looks like it is in Caracas instead of Central Florida. The way things are going, the stores will be stripped bare within a couple of days. We went there to get a couple of luxuries like chips, dip, and ice cream.
Here is the produce department:
Here is the meat department:
Cleaning products and toilet paper:
Eggs (note that all that is left is the $6 per dozen organic eggs. Even the cartons with broken eggs in them are gone)
Once the stores are stripped bare, the clock is running. At some point, the supplies will run out and then people will get desperate. At that point, physical security will become vital.
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Exponential growth
Every health care provider that I know is receiving the same instructions:
Since test kits are in short supply, no one will be tested for coronavirus unless they have traveled out of the country in the past 14 days, or have been exposed to someone who has tested positive in the past 14 days.
What this means is that there are likely many people who have the virus that are not being tested because they have not traveled out of the country in the past two weeks. The big hole here is exposure.
Let’s say that you just tested positive for COVID 19. Quick, name every person that has been within 6 feet of you in the past two weeks. How many people do you think you forgot, or don’t know their identity?
I think there are far more cases than are being reported, simply because no one knows who they are.
Even so, the known cases are doubling every 2 to 3 days, and have been for the past 3 weeks. As I type this, there are 1,300 cases in the US. So, there were 328 more cases today, and 294 yesterday. That means the number of cases has doubled in the past 48 hours. At this rate, there will be 1800 cases by Thursday (tomorrow night) and 2500 by Friday. Another week, and there will be 12,000 cases by the following Friday. How long the cases can keep doubling is anyone’s guess.
I am not an epidemiologist, but I do teach biology. When an organism is not being limited by availability of resources, we see exponential growth. Look at this chart, and it is a textbook case of an organism unlimited by access to resources:
Until COVID is cut off from the resources it needs, the growth pattern will continue. Shutting down mass gatherings isn’t going to do much. Most transmission is happening in small groups, not at sporting events. The way to curb this level of growth is to quarantine everyone. In a country like ours, I don’t think that is possible.
Instead, this virus will continue, and with an R0 of more than two, it will continue to grow.
Trump cutting off trade with Europe won’t accomplish much. The virus is already here.
Instead, we will ride this out as a nation, and we will see where it takes us. A vaccine is likely a year away.
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The Army, too
First, the Navy changed their procedures for allowing families to watch graduation ceremonies from OCS and basic training in response to COVID 19. Now the Army is doing it, too.
Tell me again how COVID 19 is no worse than the seasonal flu.
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Someone is lying
They tell us that COVID is less dangerous than the flu, but then the military makes announcements like this:
Beginning 13 March, Navy Recruit Training Command (RTC), the Navy’s boot camp, will suspend guest attendance at graduation ceremonies to prevent any potential spread of COVID-19 to either Sailors or Navy families.
Graduations themselves will continue, and will be live-streamed on Navy online platforms, including our Facebook page.
Commander, Naval Service training command, which oversees RTC, will continue to monitor the situation and consult with medical experts to decide when it is appropriate to resume guest attendance at graduation ceremonies. There are currently no confirmed cases of COVID-19 among recruits, and RTC has robust screening processes in place for those who arrive each week.
This action is being taken out of an abundance of caution, to both ensure the welfare of Sailors and that RTC can continue its essential mission of producing basically trained Sailors. RTC Recruits impacted by this change are being authorized to call home to directly inform their loved ones.
Liberty will be cancelled for graduates of RTC. They will report directly to their follow-on assignments. Liberty or guest access at those locations will be at the discretion of those commands. Families are encouraged to contact their recruits following graduation for details. We cannot speak on behalf of the commands they will be reporting to regarding their liberty policy.
Corona is either not a threat, or is really bad. Who do you believe? Someone is lying.