Security scare

I was sitting at home at 10:30 this morning when the doorbell rang. I was in my underwear and not expecting anyone, so I didn’t answer it. A few minutes later, I see that he is walking around the outside my house.

I threw on some body armor, grabbed a PDW, and watched him as I called the cops. He left before they arrived. I got a picture of him, his car, and the back of his shirt, which had the name of a local business on it.

It turns out that he was a construction worker who had the wrong address. I am on XXX road, and he was looking for the next street over, which is XXX avenue. He was supposed to install rain gutters. The funny thing is that the numerical parts of the address on my road are not the same numerical addresses as the houses on the avenue. 

Officers

During my six years in the US Navy, I was assigned to an aircraft carrier. During that time, we had 4 different commanding officers. The problem with being on an aircraft carrier is that the CO is a former aviator, and he is so close to making admiral, he can taste it. The officers that make it that far are pure politicians who are looking to trade that eagle on their collar for a star.

The first one didn’t want to be bothered with having to actually DO his job. He would hold NJP on an aircraft carrier as follows:
He would be on the flight deck, standing behind a lectern.
The accused sailors would be lined up in ranks on the aircraft elevator at the hanger deck level.
The elevator would be raised to the flight deck.
The CO would say: “You all must be guilty, or you would not be here. I find you guilty as charged. I sentence you to reduction in rank by one paygrade, you will forfeit a half month’s pay for two months, restriction to the ship for 45 days, with extra duty for 45 days. Dismissed.” and then the elevator with the accused on it would be lowered back down to the hanger. He used to say that if he had one hundred enlisted men with video cameras with one hundred videos showing an event taking place, and one officer who said “That wasn’t how it happened,” then he would take the side of the officer every single time.

Our second CO was a decent guy. His career was destroyed when our ship collided with another, 30 minutes after he had left the bridge with the ship’s Navigator in charge.

The third CO we had was probably the best. We had just received a new radar repeater for the Captain’s chair on the bridge. I installed and tested it. It was cool. It attached to the arm of the chair and allowed the CO to see any radar display that was available to the ship.

It also turns out that the power supply for it was faulty. Not may fault, it came from the factory like that. That power supply caught fire while the CO was sitting in the chair. The power supply was mounted to the chair, just under the CO’s ass. It burned his left cheek and melted a hole in his pants.

A couple of months later, I was standing in formation so the CO could pin my Surface Warfare pin on me. This was back in the day when warfare pins were difficult to get and most people didn’t have them. (Not like today when nearly everyone does) As he was pinning it on me, he said, “Congratulations, Petty Officer Divemedic. You aren’t going to set me on fire in celebration, are you?” We both laughed. As I said, nice guy.

We went to war with that CO. I respected him a lot.

Then we got the fourth one. He took over just after we returned from the war. He was, to put it mildly, a warmonger. We were a nuclear capable command, and it scared all of us that this man was in charge of nuclear weapons. He used to begin every announcement with “When we arrive, there will be blood on the water,” then would talk about how he was eager to go to war. I think that this was because he was the only person in the ship that had not been in the combat zone.

Even the junior officers would complain about him. In front of NCOs. If you have ever been in the military, you know things are bad when the JO’s are complaining about the CO in front of enlisted personnel.

It seems, from talking to people I know, that the officer problem has gotten worse.

Men are evil, says Federal judge

Long article about how men are evil, hate women, and guns should therefore be outlawed. What the Federal judge has to say is the issue:

“It seems to me it’s almost always men, with these obsessions. They act on on them in violent ways. And it ends up in (these) tragedies,” Lefkow, 76, told The Associated Press.

If I were ever to appear in that judge’s courtroom, I would immediately demand that she be recused in any case involving a male defendant. She has publicly stated that she is prejudicial towards men. How a judge can make a public statement like that is beyond me.

Here is the test: How would people feel about what you say, if it were said about black people (the current popular victim class)?

“It seems to me it’s almost always blacks, with these obsessions. They act on on them in violent ways. And it ends up in (these) tragedies,” Lefkow, 76, told The Associated Press.

See what I mean? It doesn’t matter who the target is, for a judge to make a statement like this should result in every man who has appeared in her courtroom since the 2005 incident should receive a new trial, and the judge herself should be removed from the bench.

Is deadly force authorized?

We are seeing that Antifa has stepped up their game. They are now using lasers to intentionally blind people with whom they disagree. It isn’t just cops.

776.012 Use or threatened use of force in defense of person.—
(2) A person is justified in using or threatening to use deadly force if he or she reasonably believes that using or threatening to use such force is necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily harm to himself or herself or another or to prevent the imminent commission of a forcible felony. A person who uses or threatens to use deadly force in accordance with this subsection does not have a duty to retreat and has the right to stand his or her ground if the person using or threatening to use the deadly force is not engaged in a criminal activity and is in a place where he or she has a right to be.

Now I am not a lawyer, but the law seems to be clear here- the person across the street is shining a laser in your face, with the deliberate goal of causing you to be blinded. It seems to me that being blinded for life is great bodily harm.

I also need to see about getting some laser goggles for green lasers.

All liberals are crazy

Remember the video from a few days ago, where what appears to be a woman is yelling about being arrested in Portland?

It turns out that this “woman” is actually a man who claims to be a woman. According to his bio, Dr. Juniper L. Simonis is a Data Analyst in the Weecology Labat the University of Florida. He has a PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and makes a living using mathematics to study living things. How in the world can a person who doesn’t even understand boys versus girls be a so-called “expert” on biology? This is why people don’t believe “experts” any more.

On a side note, he is also a two time world champion athlete who became a world champion by being a man who beats up girls.

This is insanity.

For years, I have used the following to illustrate the insanity of the transgender position:

Let’s say that I believe myself to be a gorilla. No matter how strongly I believe it, I am still not a gorilla.
Let’s say that I take pills to make myself grow more hair to look more like a gorilla. I am still not a gorilla.
If I hire a surgeon to perform an operation to make myself look more like a gorilla, I am still not a gorilla.
If I get a million people to say that I can be whatever I identify myself as, and declare than I am a gorilla, I am still not a gorilla.
If I were to believe myself to be a gorilla and took the steps above, people would say I am crazy.

Statistics and COVID

Statistics is actually a branch of mathematics. In order to enter any sort of a graduate level medical course, one of the prerequisites is that the applicant have taken Statistical analysis as a math course during undergraduate studies.

There are a number of things that you can use this for. One of the things statistics is used for is epidemiology. The larger of a sample taken from a population of individuals, the more that sample resembles the makeup of that population. This is a fairly large sample size. Now one of the rules is that the samples must be a random sampling of the population. The smaller the sample, the more important it is that the sample be free from bias and be truly random. There are always biases built into a sample, which is why asking 1,000 people out of the 330 million in the USA about their political opinion is so often wrong. 
The reason for this error is that even one person lying in a sample that small can result in a large error. The more of the population that is a part of your sample, the more accurate that statistic will be. For example, a survey of all people in a population would be the most accurate. A survey of one person would be the least accurate. 
With that being said, there is a way to calculate just how accurate your statistic is. Let’s try that with Florida’s COVID testing. Florida to date has tested 3.5 million people for COVID, or about 18% of the population. This is a fairly large sample size, with nearly one out of every five people being tested. Just how accurate is our result? Let’s use the Margin of Error calculator to see:
Of Florida’s 20 million people, we have tested 3.5 million of them, and 450,000 have tested positive. This means that 12% of tests were positive. 
Using my margin of error calculator, I can say with 95% confidence that 11.1 to 13.9% of people in Florida have COVID. That means that there is a 95% probability that there are currently somewhere between 2.2 million and 2.8 million people in Florida who have been infected with COVID. (Assuming that the errors in testing are randomly distributed between false positive and false negative. That is an entirely different problem.)
Since people don’t generally die without notice, our sample size for deaths is 100%. (This assumes that all COVID death reports are accurate. Again, another problem) Since there have been 6,300 fatalities, this gives us a IFR of between  0.2% and 0.3%. 
In short, a person who is infected by COVID has a 99.7% chance of survival. 
That is a good thing, because with a 12% infection rate, there is absolutely no way to stop this virus from eventually infecting us all. Put that infection rate in perspective: One out of every eight people in Florida has already caught COVID in less than six months. In another six months, it will likely be somewhere close to half the population.

Use the same calculator on your own state’s numbers, and see if you get the same numbers.
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I did the same calculation with New York’s numbers. New York has tested 5.6 million people with about 413,000 positives, for a positivity rate of 7.4% out of a total population of 19.5 million.

 Using these numbers, there is a 95% probability that there are currently somewhere between  1.43 million and 1.47 million people in New York who have been infected with COVID.

Stupidity

Quote of the day from Chloe Eudaly, city commissioner of Portland, Oregon:

“Each and every one of you has a constitutional right to exercise your freedom of speech and to peacefully assemble. The actions of a few should not negate these rights, and the response of law enforcement should be proportional to the infractions. Indiscriminately tear-gassing and firing impact munitions at thousands of peaceful protesters is not a proportionate response.”

By this same logic:

Each and every American has the right to keep and bear arms. The actions of a few gun owners should not negate those rights, and the response of law enforcement should be proportional to the infractions. Banning the ownership of commonly owned firearms like the AR-15 is not a proportionate response.

The commissioner who made this claim is a Democrat high school dropout. Her first act upon being elected was to pass the Mandatory Renter Relocation Assistance—commonly known as the relocation ordinance—into law. The ordinance requires landlords to pay for their tenants moving fees when they serve their tenants a no-cause eviction, a notice of non-renewal of a fixed term lease, a qualified landlord reason for termination, a rent increase of 10% or more over a 12-month period, or make substantial changes to lease terms.

The fees are based on the size of the residential unit. For a studio or single room occupancy, a tenant is entitled to $2,900; for a one-bedroom: $3,300; for a two-bedroom: $4,200; and for a three-bedroom or larger: $4,500.

Since the government of Portland is evicting the Federal government from the courthouse, I think that negotiations should start there. If a 3 bedroom house is worth a $4500 relocation payment, then something can be worked out here.

The city of Portland can pay the government an equivalent amount per square foot, adjusted for the fact that the courthouse is more expensive commercial real estate. How about $1 million?

In exchange, all federal operations of the Portland Federal government will move to Tacoma, Washington. Any person from Oregon who needs to conduct business with the Federal Government will have to do so at the Tacoma location. That includes bankruptcies, welfare applications, and all other matters that were once handled at the courthouse.

Blogger

I was involuntarily moved to a new version of Blogger. This is causing technical difficulties, including broken links and inability to comment. I have changed back to the old version by opting out, but that is only a temporary solution. They have informed me that everyone will be forced to the new version again in the next few months.

For now, I will spend the day trying to fix stuff.