Incompetence, deliberate, or something else?

With regards to the Vegas shooting, there are many theories. Some are outrageous, some buying the official version, some make more sense than others. Everyone seems to have their own theory. Why there are so many theories is obvious: the official investigation is being publicly and obviously bungled.

The Las Vegas metro police cannot even establish basic facts. When did the shooter (I won’t use his name) check in to the hotel? Was it the 28th? Or was it the 25th? Don’t the police department, the FBI, and all of the other agencies involved have the ability to check the hotel register?  This seems rather basic to me.

They cannot even establish a timeline. When was the security guard shot? Six minutes before the crowd was fired upon? Immediately before the crowd was fired upon? After? When was 911 called? As a former emergency worker who was involved in hundreds of criminal and internal investigations, I can tell you that ALL radio traffic and 911 calls are recorded and time stamped. Why can’t the cops reliably establish a timeline of something that their own systems record and time stamp?

Even though there are several receipts from room service showing that there were two people in the room, there has been no explanation of who the two are.There are reports that there was a phone charger that could not be matched to any of the shooter’s devices, then the next day, the cops say “nevermind, we figured it out.” Matching phones to chargers: a skill that any average American middle school student has mastered, seemingly can’t be handled by the FBI or a major metropolitan police department.

While his car was out of the garage, his room was opened with the key. The police and FBI have not even tried to explain this one away. More incompetence? Cover up? Who  knows?

Instead of explaining all of this, the FBI’s official line is that there was not a second person. Since the FBI can’t figure out who the person was, there must not be one, and if there is not a second person, then the shooter was obviously faking the existence of the second person. Case solved. This is the height of incompetence and arrogance. The FBI is essentially saying “If we don’t know it, it must not exist.”

It is a fact that no one can count cards or cheat in a Vegas casino, yet the shooter- a man who is 6 foot four, was not seen on camera entering or leaving the place even once. To haul nearly a thousand pounds of firearms and ammunition into the room would have taken several trips, even using a luggage cart.

The security guard who was shot: Where is he? Why did he disappear? Why isn’t there a security guard licensed in Nevada by that name? Was he registered under a fake name? Or is his legal name different than the name that people use? After all, I used to have people call me by my middle name, and maybe that is the case here. Even so, why did he disappear?

A reporter trying to get answers to these questions has had her press credentials taken away, and is now prohibited from attending LVMP press conferences. She was also chased away from the home of the missing security guard by an armed man who claims to work for On Scene security. On Scene security doesn’t have an active license to operate in the state of Nevada. Their license expired in January, and the corporate address is a company that provides virtual office space.

There are so many problems and inconsistencies with the investigation that it is no wonder that people are creating their own theories to fill the void. Nothing about this makes sense. There are a few old sayings that come to mind: “Never ascribe to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetence.”

At the same time, there is Occam’s razor, which essentially says that when presented with multiple theories about a phenomenon, the one which requires the fewest assumptions (the simplest) is usually the correct one.

In this case, we are asked to choose between two explanations:
1 That a man who has no public persona, no political opinion, no history of mental illness, was a person who made more than $5 million a year but can’t fully explain where it came from, somehow managed to spend months or even years plotting to commit one of the largest mass murders in US history without leaving a trail for investigators to follow, and without alerting any of his family and close friends that anything was amiss, and without anyone figuring out that he was a “gun nut.” No one has EVER been able to do this.

Then, after all of that, when the FBI, the local cops, the ATF, and every other police agency you can think of begin to investigate the shooting, they handle the investigation with so much incompetence, that they can’t even establish who was in the room, or when he even checked into the room. This is the same FBI that arrested Tim McVeigh less than an hour after the Oklahoma City bombing.

2 That we are all getting played. The FBI and police know more than they are letting on, and are covering up key facts in this crime. The question is: Why? Who is playing us? The shooter? The cops and FBI? Or someone else? and to what end? This explanation creates more questions than answers.

This is fertile ground for conspiracy theorists.

Valid Question

If the shooter in Vegas was shot at 9:59 and called it in, then the shooter was firing on the crowd until 10:15, then why did it take LVMPD dispatchers until 10:25 to declare that there was an active shooter, and why did police wait until 11:20 to enter his room?

How many people bled to death while waiting for help that wouldn’t come in time? Nearly an hour and a half passed before police entered that room.

Gun ownership: because when you need help, police are only an hour and a half away…

I support the NAACP

The NAACP says that the owner of the Dallas Cowboys is violating the Constitutional Rights of his employees by not allowing them to protest while they are on the clock. So is the NAACP saying that an employer may not violate the Constitutional Rights of their employees while they are at work? I want to see the result of THAT court case, so I can finally begin carrying guns at my workplace without having to worry about my 2A rights being violated…

(This is satire)

Disney: Guns only for the rich

Bob Iger, the CEO of Disney, said this week that we should be outraged by the Las Vegas shooting, and should be discussing gun control.

On the same page is a link to a story where Disney’s government arm, Reedy Creek Improvement District, has budgeted $13.7 million to hire off duty deputies at $40 per hour to work at the park. I guess when you have millions to hire gunslingers to guard you and your business,  you can be for gun control, knowing that the laws will never apply to your hired guns. According to Disney, guns are only for the rich, because fuck the poor.

Lying liars that lie

So Steve Wynn was interviewed on 60 minutes about guns in his hotels and had this to say:

WALLACE: So, given all of that, and I know that you had a hidden metal detectors and you had profilers in your casinos, watching the people walking in and out, would any of those measures have prevented Steven Paddock from checking in to one of your hotels?
WYNN: Well, I know that my friends at MGM are particularly fastidious about trying to protect their employees and their guests. Having said that, there are couple of things in retrospect and it’s always good to look over your shoulder on these things. But we have a routine with housekeeping, with room service, with audio visual, who anybody that goes in the room to do an inspection.
We also have rules about do not disturb. If a room goes on do not disturb for more than 12 hours, we investigate. We constantly — we don’t allow guns in this building unless they’re being carried by our employees and there’s a lot of them. But if anybody’s got a gun and we find them continually, we eject them from the hotel.

He then goes on to claim that a person with a “Do Not Disturb” sign on a room for several days would trigger an investigation. I call BULLSHIT. First, are we to expect that a man who was known to gamble $100,000 an hour in a casino, who was a high roller, and a millionaire would be subjected to his room being summarily searched because of a “Do Not Disturb” sign?

Hidden metal detectors? What are you going to do when every person who goes through it sets it off because of their cell phones or keys?

I seriously doubt that the casinos in Vegas are going to search every person who attempts to enter or leave, and search the luggage of every guest. That just isn’t a viable, long term solution. People would simply stop going to Vegas. Like he said, there are 15,000 to 20,000 people a day entering those casinos. It simply isn’t practical to search each and every one of them.

What about the SHOT show? Are you going to tell them that they are no longer welcome?

Second: In June, I stayed in Las Vegas for a week. I spent two nights in the Freemont Street area, and 5 nights at New York, New York. During our stay, we walked into nearly every casino on the Las Vegas strip, including the Wynn. Since my Florida CCW is covered by reciprocity, I was able to legally carry in Las Vegas, and I carried all over that town. Including in the Wynn resort.

Not once was I approached by police, security, or anyone else.

Inconsistencies

There are a number of things that just don’t make sense to me about the Las Vegas shooter. I‘m not the only one. Now, I am not by any means saying that there was any sort of conspiracy, but there is a lot here that makes no sense to me.

First, there are the statistical anomalies: A 64 year old millionaire with a graduate level education, no political affiliations, no social media presence, and no history of mental illness just doesn’t fit the profile. I read an article with quotes from a former FBI profiler who is just as stumped.

Then there are the other anomalies:

The note left behind turns out to have included hand-written calculations about where he needed to aim to maximize his accuracy and kill as many people as possible. To me, this seems to indicate one of two things: either a ballistics table, or a range card. Either of those would indicate a level of knowledge that is higher than the average shooter, not just the average American. A range card is used as a guide for soldiers, particularly ones who are going to be using a weapon to cover an area with fire, as opposed to using a weapon to engage point targets. Below is a range card, right out of the Army field training manual:

In other words, he was planning on using his automatic weapon to place fire into a “beaten zone” to fire into a crowd, where hits on specific people don’t matter. All that mattered was putting fire into the zone, and count on the law of averages to get hits on individuals. Again, this would indicate a level of training and knowledge that is beyond what most people would know. Since this man is not alleged to have had any military training, where did he get the training?

Then there is the large amounts of cash he had. He paid cash for a house, gambled upwards of a million dollars a year, and there is a report that he won $5 million in 2015 by playing video poker in casinos. I am a bit of a gambler myself. I am not a high roller, but I do gamble enough to get limited comps, like the occasional hotel stay or cruise. Let me say this: The games are not predictable over the long term for people to pull those kinds of winnings out over the long term. Sure, there are people who hit the VERY rare large jackpot, but casinos use those large winnings as loss leaders to entice gamblers. People do not win over the long term, or everyone with some math skill would be in there making millions, and the casinos would go out of business. A more likely story is that he was using the casinos to launder money from some sort of illegal enterprise. Gambling is a great way to hide the source of illegal money.

Who pays cash for a house? Even millionaires don’t travel around with a briefcase full of cash. They would pay with a cashier’s check or bank transfer.

There are other anomalies pointed out here, and this is where things begin sounding like a badly written conspiracy theory novel:

He is a licensed pilot who let his medical certificates expire, but who still owned 2 aircraft. One of Paddock’s airplanes, tail number N5343M, was an SR-20, in production since 1999, and retails for $390K.
It’s now registered to Volant Associates, LLC (you should check out their website, and read the “Careers” page, to see if you get a whiff of Christians In Action as strongly as I did). The tail number is active, yet apparently, the plane has recorded not a single registered flight in the last three years.

Now the interesting part, if you go to faa.gov and put the same tail number into their search engine N5343M, you will find that the FAA says the n-number is inactive, and the last registration was a C152 (different aircraft) to some guy in San Diego CA. And no mention of the current registration by Volant LLC, or Mr Paddock. The FAA database is updated every business day at midnight. So, it looks like someone ether scrubbed the FAA database and forgot or didn’t know that flightaware posted the same info.

(Pssst! Say, just wondering, who can double-register tail numbers, and make flight records go away? Asking for a friend.)

These anomalies beg for Internet detectives to spin yarns. What scares me is knowing that people are capable of doing stuff like this to advance an agenda- after all, the Obama administration came up with Fast and Furious. I’m not saying that there was a conspiracy here, all I am saying is that it isn’t impossible.

This week’s lessons

The Democrats have come out dancing in the blood of victims of a shooting, as they always do, demanding more laws that wouldn’t have dine a thing to prevent this shooting. However, there were some important things learned here:

There were many on the anti gun side who want to completely eliminate the Second Amendment and outlaw guns. Let’s say that the plan comes true, the 2A is repealed, and a statute making guns illegal is passed: “Ladies and gentlemen, turn them all in. Here is a gift card for some sneakers.”

There are at minimum, 400 million firearms in the US, likely held by at least 100 million people. Let’s say that you get 99.9% of them, which would be a miracle, since Canada and Connecticut didn’t get even 50% compliance the guns they wanted registered. That would leave 400 thousand firearms and 100 thousand gun owners.

Someone will have to go out and get those missing guns. That means door to door cops kicking in doors. Many of these gun owners would not be happy about this, and this will result in a significant number of cops getting killed. The end result is that the military will wind up going door to door, and gun owners will have to turn them in, go into hiding, or fight. 

One guy just committed a shooting that police admit they had no way of stopping. He was killed, but managed to kill 58 people in the process. Imagine the bloodbath if even 10% of these rogue gun owners did the same. When the dust settles, are the American people willing to see hundreds of thousands of deaths, military searches, and all of the fallout that would entail?

Florida Assault Weapons Ban

Here come the politicians dancing in the blood of the Vegas victims to advance an agenda, as always. The proposed Florida law would make it illegal, as of July 1, 2018:
– to own nearly all semiautomatics.
– to own a magazine that holds more than 7 rounds
– a person who can prove that they owned such a weapon or magazine before October 1, 2017 can still own it, but must apply for a license for each such weapon or magazine. (No word on how much this will cost)
If a person doesn’t have a license, they must sell it to a dealer, or turn it over to the police.
– the law also says that gun shows can only be held by or under the supervision of police
Violating this law will be a felony.



1 How is backdating the day to October 1 NOT ex post facto? 
2 Hopefully this will die in committee. 
3 Keep an eye on this one.