You Can't Silence Us

Strategy

A continuation of my Craps posts. As I have been saying: There is no way to beat math. There are some who will tell you that you can “call your shots” by throwing the dice a certain way. That is balderdash that the casinos actually encourage people to believe, because it makes the gullible actually gamble more.

Why isn’t it possible? The rules of the game include a proviso that the shooter must throw the dice far enough that they hit the back wall of the table. The wall is covered in a rubber bumper that has little pyramid shaped bumps on it. Those bumps are designed to deflect the dice in unpredictable directions. If you are good enough to nail those in the same exact spot every time, you need to be playing professional golf or basketball, you will make more money than at the casino.

No, the winning strategy doesn’t involve the way you play the game. It involves the way that you bet.

I enter the casino with a daily budget. Let’s say that I am spending a weekend at a casino. I have budgeted $500 to gamble with. Since I will be there for 2 evenings, I will lose no more than $250 a day. I walk into the casino with $250 each evening, and once that is gone, I am done for the evening.

So let’s say that I enter the casino and due to random variation, I enter the casino on Friday evening with $250. I leave the casino with $375. When I enter the casino on Saturday, I do it with $250. Win or lose, yesterday’s play is yesterday. By doing this, I limit my losses while making my wins unlimited. This works pretty well. There are days that I have lost the $250 in less than an hour, and that stings. There are also days that I have walked in with $250 and then left the casino with more than $4,000.

First, don’t take the sucker bets with YOUR money. Use the casino’s money. I only take sucker bets (low chance of winning, high payout, high house edge) when I am far ahead. What this means is that you don’t make the risky bets until you have doubled the money that you started with. If you walked into the casino with $250 for the day, don’t make risky bets until you have more than $500.

Second, the best bets on the table are the pass line bet, place bets on the 6 or 8, and taking odds on your pass line bet. (I don’t like to play the “dark side” bets like “Don’t Pass.” Yes, they are bets with a low house edge, I just can’t have fun winning while the table is losing.) Personally, a sound bet to me is any bet with a house edge of 2% or less. Here are the tables for calculating house edge on multi roll bets. Stay away from single roll bets until you are gambling with their money.

Third, if the table is cold- walk away and come back later. Tables tend to run cold and hot. I know that mathematically, this shouldn’t be true- but it seems to work that way.

Lastly, make sure that you frequent one chain of casinos and make sure that you are in their player’s club. The free comps you get may well be the best part about gambling and the only way to come out ahead. Free rooms, free drinks, free food, and more. I always stick with MGM casinos and have spent my way into Platinum status there. I get free hotel rooms, sometimes free airfare, and other perks. A four night stay in a room at the NYNY Hotel in Las Vegas normally costs $500, so getting a free, four night stay is a win.

My next trip out to Vegas is already booked. They are giving me a four night stay for free (we are paying for a 5th), plus $100 resort credit for meals, plus $200 in casino credit to gamble with. (I am not specifically endorsing MGM resorts- any of the big name casinos would work just as well.) My budget for gambling for the 5 days is $1,500, but I am getting $800 in perks.

Just remember, win or lose, I play because it is FUN. Also remember my rules for gambling:

  • 1 I know that I will lose money over the long term. It is mathematically certain. So budget your gambling and stick to it.
  • 2 I gamble because it is fun and entertaining. If I ever find myself gambling while desperate to win because I need the money, it is time to quit.
  • 3 Don’t ever gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. If you are gambling your rent or grocery money, that isn’t entertainment, it’s desperation.
People who have read this post: 750
By Divemedic, ago

Bad bets

This is a follow up to my series on Craps. The last post was on good bets, and this one will be about bad bets. The worst bets on the table are what I refer to as sucker bets. A few of them here:

The one set of bets that are horrible are all of the “one roll” bets. Bets where you bet on the outcome of a single roll are all found in the center of the table. They all have a house edge of between 11.1 and 16.9.

These bets include “any craps” which is a bet that the next roll of the dice will be a 2, 3, or 12. If the dice come up as a 2, 3, or 12, the payout is 7 to 1. The house advantage is 11.1. Similar is betting on either the 3 or the 11. Either bet pays 15 to 1, and the house advantage is still 11.1. You can bet the “Big 7” which pays 4 to 1, but has a house advantage of 16.9.

So how exactly do we make money on Craps, if all bets are losers? There are many theories and tactics. Some people recommend things like trying to control the dice and can make them land on a certain number. That won’t work. The game can’t be rigged, it can’t be cheated, and it can’t be beat in the long term.

It CAN be beat in the short term by being a smart player. That is where we find the fun. More on that later.

People who have read this post: 575
By Divemedic, ago

More knees needed

A man in Ocala Florida was attacked on May 2 by three feral critters who used a baseball bat and a shovel to beat him during a robbery. The man had multiple skull injuries and fractured vertebrae as a result of the beating, and had to be placed in a medically induced coma when he was taken to the hospital due to his injuries.

The three critters were 32-year-old Darrielle Murphy, 33-year-old Keshana Oliver, and 19-year-old Jakecio Pollard. Pollard is in custody and considering that he is only 19, is already off to a great start on his career at being a lifelong violent criminal. He was arrested for petit theft, but they dropped the charges, they also convicted him of drug possession and giving a false name to a LEO, crimes which sent him to jail for 16 days. At the time of the robbery, he was awaiting trial for a jail escape.

Murphy and Oliver are still at large. They are pictured here:

Keshana Oliver has felony convictions going back to 2007. Those include burglary, aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, battery, tampering with witness, tampering with evidence, affray (fighting/rioting in jail), threatening a public official, grand theft, assault during a burglary, attacking a LEO, three different cases of driving while license suspended, providing false identification, and aggravated battery with a deadly weapon. For his crimes, he has been sent to prison 4 times, having served a total of 18 months in jail.

In the case of Darielle Murphy (street name “Bumbo”), the earliest crime that wasn’t a traffic offense that I could find was for “trespassing on school property after warning” in 2007 when he was 18 years old, but the arrest affidavit was sealed. Included in the paperwork for this crime was “violation of probation” which means that there were earlier convictions, but they were likely while he was a juvenile and records were sealed. Anyway, his visible convictions going back to 2009. They include charges for domestic battery (at least three convictions), tampering with evidence, escape, grand theft (at least three convictions), drug possession, battery, witness tampering, at least three convictions for petit theft, motor vehicle theft, theft of a firearm, possession of a firearm by a convicted felon, armed burglary, and multiple convictions for resisting arrest with violence. He also had charges dropped on “lewd and lascivious battery on a child 12-16” there as well. For his crimes, this guy has been in prison 15 times for a total 4 years and 7 months in custody.

Murphy and Oliver are career violent criminals, with Pollard following in their footsteps. They have each committed numerous violent felonies, and it is only a matter of time before they murder someone. The short bit of time they have served seems like a slap on the wrist for the long list of crimes that they have committed.

There are far more blacks like them than there are successful black professionals.

People who have read this post: 763
By Divemedic, ago

Dark Money

When it came to the Trump administration, Dark Money (money from groups that do not disclose their contributors) was cast as being evil, somehow unethical.

But have no fear, now that Biden is in charge, dark money is once again safe for women, children, and little puppies.

Dark money group launches $2 million pressure campaign on moderate lawmakers to pass parts of Biden’s agenda

See? Now dark money is GOOD for us.

People who have read this post: 518
By Divemedic, ago

Terminator

Donald Trump has been marked for termination. The Communist Democrat party has decided that he must be destroyed, and they have sent their Terminator, the New York State Attorney General, to get rid of him. In addition to the Manhattan DA, the New York AG is now investigating the Trump Organization ‘in a criminal capacity.’

They will not stop until they have killed his chances of influencing the national stage.

Listen. And understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.

People who have read this post: 619
By Divemedic, ago

Apples

Two years ago, I posted about a Florida deputy who was was recently caught planting drugs on drivers during traffic stops. He had apparently been doing it for years, and more than 100 people were charged based upon the drugs he ‘found’ in their cars. The pattern was the same- pull the car over on some pretext, claim that he could smell marijuana, and then meth would be found. Mysteriously, his camera would not be turned on until AFTER the drugs were found. In one case, he did leave the camera on, and it caught the drugs in his hand right before he planted them.

He was just convicted on 19 counts including racketeering, official misconduct, fabricating evidence, perjury, false imprisonment and possession of controlled substances and drug paraphernalia.

Before anyone says that this is because of “racist cops” the article from the Democrat shows 36 people who were victims of his scheme, and only four of them were black. Not racism, just an officer trying to make a name for himself.

People who have read this post: 666
By Divemedic, ago

End run

Let’s say that the police want to search your home. Lacking probable cause that a crime has been committed, they cannot get a warrant to do so. Well, that isn’t going to slow them down. They simply pay a burglar to break into your home, take some photos of whatever it was they were hoping to find, and then turn you in. Ridiculous?

How about the cop who was fired for donating to the Kyle Rittenhouse defense fund after a hacker released a list of donors obtained from the server of the company that processed the donations? What about that the Space Force Commander who was removed from his post for opposing Marxism? The US government is now monitoring the social media of military members, and getting rid of those who have political opinions not in line with full on communism. Violation of all sorts of rights?

They have decided that coopting a private agency to violate your rights is not a violation per se, because the government isn’t the one actually doing it. How long until they skip all of the other steps and just have companies imprison or simply execute American citizens without trial and without evidence. As long as it isn’t an actual government employee depriving you of your rights, it’s Constitutional, right?

Even worse, what if it turns out that the company who does it is actually run by government agents operating under the “signature reduction” program?

People who have read this post: 464
By Divemedic, ago

Sue them

I have been talking about evictions and how landlords are being blamed for the problems caused through government malfeasance.

Landlords all over are saying that they are being put out of business because they are not being permitted to remove non paying tenants from their property. The government claims to offer rental assistance, but it is a sham. A year of rent free living often means that tenants owe tens of thousands of dollars in back rent. These rental assistance plans often require that landlords sign an agreement which states that they agree to accept whatever the government sends as full and final payment for all past due rent. So the landlord is expected to accept pennies on the dollar.

Instead, some landlords in New Jersey have found a better way. After fourteen months of watching their money go out without a dime in rent being paid, they have had enough. They can’t evict- but they can sue. They go to court, sue the tenant, and get a judgement for the past due rent.

Such lawsuits do not violate the governor’s eviction moratorium. That has the communists going apoplectic.

“I don’t think it’s in the spirit of the moratorium,” Albert added.

The claimed “Spirit” and legal basis for the moratorium was that people who have been evicted pose a risk for spreading COVID. It is supposedly an infection control measure. Of course, we all know the truth: the eviction moratorium is just another giveaway program- one paid for by property owners.

Communism, isn’t it great?

People who have read this post: 566
By Divemedic, ago

Holy Crap

The women who threw a severed pig’s head onto the porch of a house that used to belong to the expert witness for the defense in the Chauvin trial have been arrested.

Those are some seriously ugly -er- women. Holy shit. That one in the middle looks like Jerry Seinfeld and Rosie O’Donnell had a love child. Don’t even try to picture what happened the night that Rosie tried to convince Jerry to to let her play the part of Elaine.

Let’s look at a Conservative woman to help clear our palate a bit.

People who have read this post: 760
By Divemedic, ago