You Can't Silence Us

Craps: Good bets

This post is a continuation on my discussion of Craps and gambling. My last post on this topic was about probability. Now we will talk about good bets.

The best bet in a casino is called “pure odds.” This is a largely theoretical bet where the probability of that event occurring is the same as the payout. (For a discussion of probability, see my last post on this.) For example, let’s say that you are betting that a ‘6’ will be rolled on the dice. Out of 36, there are 5 ways to roll a six (and win) while there are 6 ways to roll a ‘7’ (and lose), so your probability of winning would be 5 to 6. In a “true odds” bet, a five dollar bet on the six would pay you 6 dollars if you won. However, casinos want to make money, so the payout is structured in such a way that the casino makes more money. In the case of our example of betting on the six, a six dollar bet would win you seven dollars. This ‘house edge’ is the casino’s cut, called the ‘vigorish’ or ‘vig’.

So obviously, a good bet is one that has the smallest house edge. There are some bets that have a small edge, and others with a large one. Let’s start with the good bets, the ones that are the closest to true odds.

The Pass Line Bet

The most basic bet you can make in Craps is the pass line bet. You are betting that the person shooting the dice will win. (Refer to the basic rules of the game here) A pass line bet is placed before the shooter rolls the dice for the first time (this is called ‘coming out’). If the shooter rolls a 7 or an 11, he wins. If he wins, all Pass line bets win as well, and they pay at even money. (A $10 bet pays $10) If the come out roll is a 2, 3, or 12, the shooter loses, and so do all pass line bets. Any other roll ‘sets the point’ meaning that this is the number that the shooter must roll again before he rolls another seven in order to win. Once you place a pass line bet, it must remain in place until the shooter either wins or loses. You place a pass bet by putting your chip down on the pass line, just like the $10 (red) chip in this picture.

For example: You place a $10 bet on the pass line. The shooter rolls a seven. You win $10. Congratulations, pick up your $10 in winnings. The shooter rolls again. Since no point was set, it is again a ‘come out roll.’ He rolls a 12. You lose. Easy come, easy go. Replace the $10. The shooter again comes out, and this time he rolls a 9. The 9 is now ‘the point’ and the shooter must roll another 9 to win. If he rolls a 7, he loses and passes the dice to the next shooter. (This is called “sevening out”) The house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41.

Odds

“Taking odds” is mathematically the best bet in the casino, and is a part of the pass line bet. However, it can be a good bet, or a bad one. Taking odds is a way of increasing your pass line bet, but at true odds. You can take odds by betting more money after the point is set. If a 7 is rolled, you lose your pass line bet AND your odds bet. If the point gets made, you win the pass line bet AND the odds bet pays at true odds.

Let me explain. You place this bet by putting more money behind the pass line. If the point is a 9 (as in our example above) and the 9 hits, the odds bet pays out at true odds. True odds can be found below. To place an odds bet, after the point is set, you put more chips behind the pass line bet (where the blue chips are in the picture above). Odds bets can be placed or taken down at any time, as long as the dice are not actually in play. (The dealer will say “Dice are out- no more bets, watch your hands.” whenever the dice are in play)

Place bet

A place bet is where the gambler bets on a particular number being rolled. The bet pays each time the number is rolled. (see the “True odds” section below) If a seven is rolled, the bet is lost. You place a place bet by putting your chips on the playing surface between you and the closest dealer (while the dice are not in play) and tell him “$xx on the number 6”. The house edge on a place bet varies with the number you are betting on. For a 6 or 8, the house edge is 1.52. For a 5 or 9, the edge is 4.0. If you are betting on a 4 or 10, then the house edge is 6.7.

True odds:

  • If the point is a 6 or 8, true odds is 6 to 5. Place bet pays 7 to 6.
  • If the point is a 9 or 5, true odds is 3 to 2. Place bet pays 7 to 5.
  • If the point is a 4 or 10, true odds is 2 to 1. Place bet pays 9 to 5.

The good bets.

So the long and the short of this is:

The best bet on the table is the pass line bet. With a house edge of 1.41, this is the best bet to make. However, if this is the only bet you make, you are going to get bored.

The next best bet to make is a place bet on the 6 or the 8. The house edge on this bet is 1.52. When I play, I will put a $30 bet on the six or the eight, then every time that number is rolled, I collect $35. Of course, once a 7 is rolled, I lose the $30. The hope is that a 6 or 8 will get rolled at least once before a 7 makes an appearance, and I make money.

Later, we will talk about the mediocre bets, dark side bets, then some betting strategy.

People who have read this post: 443
By Divemedic, ago

Thought exercise

Just a thought exercise here.

The BLM/Antifa people have organized and designed their protests to take advantage of the rules that society and the police have. They do things the way that they do, and they are as effective as they are because the rules say that society and the police MUST respond in a certain way. They know that they can do what they do, because they know that there are no real repercussions for their actions.

But what happens when the rules change? What if there were a group of people who decided that they have had enough? Or what happens if they export their violent bullshit into an area where the locals DON’T do what is expected of them? In other words, when people have had enough and the switch gets flipped, what then?

Read this article, think about the tactics they have used so far, then come back here. Go ahead, I will wait right here until you are done.

So hear me out. It seems to me like there are a couple of glaring weaknesses here. One is, as a crowdsourced movement, they announce their actions ahead of time, so the followers know where they are needed for the next peaceful protest. Suppose that some opponent knew this, and then used that foreknowledge to prepare the area. Say, an old junk car filled with ANFO, parked next to the location, left there the day before. It could be command detonated, or could simply self initiate when tampered with. To ensure that it is tampered with, it could be covered in Trump or “Blue Line” stickers.

Or suppose some belligerent found out the location of the REAL attack, the one that the main demonstration was intended to be the distraction for, and simply set up an ambush? Say, three or four guys with firepower that would open up on the Antifa unit. These ambushers could be backed up with a fire support team, just in case the ambush team ran into something unexpected and needed covering fire to disengage. Antifa shows up to vandalize a police station while the cops are busy on the other side of town, and as soon as they begin their attack, some unknown party opens fire on them from a nearby building. Four or five of them are shot, and the shooters disappear, only leaving 100 or so pieces of generic factory brass behind.

Use your imagination. How much would such a rule change send a message? What would follow?

People who have read this post: 727
By Divemedic, ago

Work and family

I wanted to post more on my series on Craps today, but my mother is getting married this weekend, plus my new job is causing me to put in a lot of work.

Maybe Sunday.

People who have read this post: 640
By Divemedic, ago

What *ARE* the guidelines?

The reason that I posted my last post on crime statistics was because of my research on a post for local media. I shouldn’t have bothered. They are only interested in publishing their own version of truth.

They claim I violated their community guidelines, which I can’t find anywhere. It appears like they are:

I think that this happens because we were beating them in the realm of ideas. We were using facts and logic, while they were using emotions, hyperbole, and dick jokes. Once they realized that wasn’t working, it was time to silence us. This is the adult equivalent of putting your hands over your ears while yelling “LALALALA. I can’t hear you.”

People who have read this post: 603
By Divemedic, ago

Numbers

In 2018 (the latest year where complete stats are available), there were 14,123 homicides in the United States. More than 52.4% of the victims were black. Just over 43.1% of the victims were white.

The murder weapons broke down like this: 46.2% of the homicides were carried out by handguns, and just over 2.1% were carried out by rifles.

The killers broke down like this: 48.3% of homicides were committed by blacks, 45.8% by whites, 5.9% were either unknown, mixed race, or other.

What about gender? When whites were the killer, men were the killer two thirds of the time. When blacks were the killer, men were responsible 76% of the time.

In cases where the victim was black, 88.8% of the time, the killer was also black. In cases where the victim was white, 80.7% of the time, the killer was also white.

There are 246 million whites in the United States. With 5,574 homicides where a white person was the victim of another white person, the murder rate among whites is 2.26 per 100,000. There are 40.6 million blacks in the United States. With 7,407, the murder rate where only blacks was involved is 14.72 per 100,000.

Conclusions: interracial killings are the exception. Blacks commit the majority of homicides in this country. They are also the victim in the majority of homicides. The homicide rate among blacks in the United States is close to the median for Africa, although half what the murder rate is for South Africa.

The homicide rate for white Americans is roughly double the murder rate for Europe, but on par with Canada.

This means that BLM is protesting the wrong killings. For every black killed by police, several hundred die at the hands of other blacks.

It isn’t handguns. Blacks kill more people than do handguns. It isn’t “assault weapons”- more people die each year from knives wielded by black men than are killed by these so-called “weapons of war.”

The numbers don’t lie. There is a cultural problem in this country, and it has to do with black males. Let’s start the “Reasoned discourse” there.

People who have read this post: 994
By Divemedic, ago

The Collapse

For those who read this blog last year while it was still on blogger, you may remember the “Danger Zones” list– the list of places where BLM/Antifa insurgents had gotten violence. Many of the cities that saw violence last year have calmed down since the election and the list isn’t applicable any longer.

However, in light of the reports coming out of Portland detailing how Antifa is pulling drivers out of vehicles at gunpoint, I still think that the advice for Zones 4 and 5 applies, with slightly modified definitions:

Zone 5: Occupied Zones
Areas in zone 5 are areas where the government has ceded or lost all control and has openly declared that they cannot and will not provide basic government services like police, fire, and EMS. These areas are completely out of governmental control and can best be described as being behind enemy lines. Anyone in this area is advised to leave immediately, even if this means abandoning property.

Minnesota: Minneapolis in the area of 38th street and Chicago Avenue (the area called “George Floyd Square”)

Oregon: Portland

Zone 4: Disputed Territory

Zone 4 zones are those where deadly force has been used to kill and/or seriously injure anyone who the insurgents feel are not sufficiently sympathetic or supportive of their goals. Government authority has either effectively or openly sided with the insurgents and is providing them with active support. Anyone in these areas is advised that violence is occurring and will continue to occur in these areas, and for this reason the area should be avoided. Use of force in self defense will result in arrest. Anyone living in or near these areas is advised to leave as soon as arrangements can be made.

Oregon and Washington: The entire Interstate 5 corridor from the Canadian border south to Eugene, Oregon, with the exception of Portland (which is a Zone 5).

People who have read this post: 687
By Divemedic, ago