Government

Paper Eagle

China is about to invade Taiwan. I know that Taiwan’s intelligence chief says it won’t happen this year, but hear me out. I would say it will happen before the end of October. Let’s look at why I think so:

Weather

The weather in that area of the world becomes too treacherous for an amphibious invasion from the end of October through the end of March. Once fall sets in, the water around Taiwan is too rough for an invasion force. That means putting things off until at least April. Why won’t they do that?

Preparations

China has mobilized large portions of the PLA, moving a large number of forces to the area, I think we are looking at an invasion within the next 90 days. No country mobilizes a large military force only to call it back.

Those air incursions into Taiwanese airspace haven’t just been saber rattling. Nor was the model of American carrier battlegroups they were using as target practice. These point to a country practicing for war. They are ready to fight and win. Our military is busy learning to put on drag shows and recognizing each other’s pronouns.

Every simulation run by the US military shows China defeating the US in detail. While China has carriers in the area, they won’t need them. The order of battle is impressive:

Military Situation Overwhelmingly Favors China:

The US carriers in the area are the USS Ronald Reagan with Carrier Airwing 5, which has less than 60 F/A-18E Super Hornets embarked. The USS Tripoli with its 20 embarked F-35B‘s is there, as is the USS America, but only carries aircraft for transporting its embarked marine battalion. Taiwan themselves have several hundred first line fighters, but the combined Taiwanese and American aircraft would quickly be overwhelmed by the sheer number of aircraft China has in the area (over 1,000).

There are some airbases on Okinawa (400 miles or so away) where there are a couple of squadrons of F-15s, F-35s, some AWACS, aerial tanker support, and there are a few strategic bombers there (I think B-1s). The rest of the US forces in Okinawa are marines, some spec ops people, support units, and some air defense units. I don’t know if Okinawa based units can get involved, since Japan would have a say and would not want to get drawn into the conflict. If these units DO get involved, expect Japan to get hit with some missile strikes, which would be HUGELY unpopular with the Japanese people, who overwhelmingly don’t want US forces there anyway.

The US is likely to put a dent in an invasion force, if they decide to intervene. A US submarine is likely lurking in the area, and China would lose some amphibious ships to it, that is almost a certainty. If the US becomes involved, there is a better than 50-50 chance that we would lose at least one of those carriers, and a near certainty that we will lose several ships. All of this means thousands of US casualties, perhaps 10,000 or more, within days of the onset of hostilities. Is the US ready for that?

In the end, there is only one possible outcome: Taiwan will fall. The only possible answer for the US would be to accept the loss of Taiwan, or go nuclear. Biden doesn’t have the stomach for nukes, and even if he DID use them, Taiwan will eventually be lost.

So what will happen?

Joe Biden has said that the US is committed to defending Taiwan. South Korea is fully expecting the US to honor that commitment. This puts him in a bind. If we refuse to defend Taiwan, the US looks weak, and we lose more influence in the region. If Biden tries to defend Taiwan then loses anyway, the US looks even weaker and loses influence worldwide. Then we also know that China owns Biden’s greedy, crooked ass.

The US has never been weaker, with a weak leader, weak economy, and a failing military. American political and military leadership is a joke.

In short, we have already lost. China knows it. The US military knows it. So does Foggy Bottom. I’m not sure Joe Biden knows it, but he is a senile old man. The only reason that China hasn’t invaded yet is that they don’t want to lose the US as a trading partner, but the US is quickly failing as an economic powerhouse and is no longer the profit center it once was.

For all of the above reasons, I think China invades Taiwan before Halloween. I think the US does nothing but whine and complain to the UN. I also think that this does severe damage to our influence in the Far East.

This is strangely reminiscent of Japan’s actions a century ago. Japan’s big failure then was that they didn’t have raw materials and depended on imports. China learned from that. They have access to all of the raw materials they need. We are looking at China becoming THE dominate world power for the foreseeable future.

The US, on the other hand, is staring at economic collapse and political instability. The peak of the American empire has come and gone.

EDITED TO ADD:

Okinawa also has a squadron of F-22 Raptors, but China has them outnumbered ten to one with their own advanced fighters. Even if the Raptor is a better airplane, quantity has a quality all its own.

By Divemedic, ago

Mayor Wants Gun Free Zone

Buddy Dyer, the Mayor of Orlando, wants to declare all of downtown Orlando to be a “gun free zone” but is upset that he cannot do so, thanks to the state’s preemption law.

Dyer said there will be access checkpoints on Friday and Saturday evenings downtown to limit how people can enter the downtown area. The city said patrons will have to go through metal detectors and a weapons check at these checkpoints before walking into the access areas.

I believe that this zone is a clear violation of Florida’s preemption law. What’s more is that violating this law places Orlando and any of its officials at risk of a lawsuit. Even more, since the quote in this news article shows that the mayor knew it was illegal to do so, he becomes liable to any taxpayer whose rights are violated.

If any county, city, town, or other local government violates this section, the court shall declare the improper ordinance, regulation, or rule invalid and issue a permanent injunction against the local government prohibiting it from enforcing such ordinance, regulation, or rule. It is no defense that in enacting the ordinance, regulation, or rule the local government was acting in good faith or upon advice of counsel.
 If the court determines that a violation was knowing and willful, the court shall assess a civil fine of up to $5,000 against the elected or appointed local government official or officials or administrative agency head under whose jurisdiction the violation occurred.

So my question here is this: Are there any pro gun organizations who are willing to take this on?

By Divemedic, ago

This is why

When I first went into the military, one of the things I used to hear from the old timers were stories about how bad things were just a few years before. I heard about people using drugs right out in the open. I heard stories about how officers were afraid to enter certain areas of the ship without an escort. The post Vietnam military was a mess.

Now it’s worse. We have ships rusting away.

Want to know why? Shit like this:

If things kick off in Europe or Taiwan, our military is going to get its collective ass kicked.

By Divemedic, ago

AWB 2022, the way I read it

Here is the a quote from the text of the new AWB that is bothering me the most:

(a) In General.—Section 922 of title 18, United States Code, is amended by inserting after subsection (u) the following:

(v) (1) It shall be unlawful for a person to import, sell, manufacture, transfer, or possess, in or affecting interstate or foreign commerce, a semiautomatic assault weapon.

(2) Paragraph (1) shall not apply to the possession, sale, or transfer of any semiautomatic assault weapon otherwise lawfully possessed under Federal law on the date of enactment of the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022.

(3) Paragraph (1) shall not apply to any firearm that—

(A) is manually operated by bolt, pump, lever, or slide action, except for a shotgun described in section 921(a)(40)(G);

(B) has been rendered permanently inoperable;

(C) is an antique firearm, as defined in section 921 of this title; or

(D) is only capable of firing rimfire ammunition.

The same applies to magazines.

(w) (1) It shall be unlawful for a person to import, sell, manufacture, transfer, or possess, in or affecting interstate or foreign commerce, a large capacity ammunition feeding device.

Granted, there is a so-called “grandfather clause” but it says that a weapon (or magazine) is only grandfathered to possess. If you wish to sell, transfer, or otherwise dispose of it, it is no longer grandfathered. Not only that, but it is a crime to have that weapon and not securely store it.

What is an assault weapon? Well, the bill defines it as:

A semiautomatic rifle that has the capacity to accept a detachable magazine; and has any 1 of the following:

  • Any grip, including thumbhole stocks, Thordsen-type grip or stock, or any other characteristic that can function as a grip.
  • A folding, telescoping, or detachable stock, or a stock that is otherwise foldable or adjustable in a manner that operates to reduce the length, size, or any other dimension, or otherwise enhances the concealability, of the weapon
  • a grenade launcher.
  • a barrel shroud.
  • a threaded barrel.

A semiautomatic rifle that has a fixed ammunition feeding device with the capacity to accept more than 15 rounds, except for an attached tubular device designed to accept, and capable of operating only with, .22 caliber rimfire ammunition.

Any part, combination of parts, component, device, attachment, or accessory that is designed or functions to accelerate the rate of fire of a semiautomatic firearm but not convert the semiautomatic firearm into a machinegun. (Binary trigger, slide fire, and anything else they feel like adding)

Semiautomatic pistols that accept detachable magazines and have any 1 of the following:

  • A threaded barrel
  • A second pistol grip.
  • A barrel shroud.
  • The capacity to accept a detachable ammunition feeding device at some location outside of the pistol grip.
  • is semiautomatic version of an automatic firearm. (So all Glocks, Skorpions, and any other PDW)
  • manufactured weight of 50 ounces or more when unloaded. (Desert Eagles)
  • A buffer tube, stabilizing brace or similar component that protrudes horizontally behind the pistol grip. (All AR pistols)

A semiautomatic shotgun that has the capacity of more than than 5 rounds and has any 1 of the following:

  • a folding, telescoping, or detachable stock.
  • a Any grip, including thumbhole stocks, Thordsen-type grip or stock, bird’s head grip, or any other characteristic that can function as a grip.
  • a forward grip.
  • a grenade launcher.

All belt fed firearms.

Then it goes on to name a bunch of firearms by name. It looks like they went through a gun catalog and just listed all of the scary looking guns. All of the parts of those firearms, including their frames.

They called a CZ Scorpion an AK type firearm, for crying out loud. It also outlaws taping, clipping, or attaching magazines to each other.

With that being said, my read on this is that it has no chance of passing the Senate, and the Dems know it. They are merely trying to pass this bill so they can go back to their base and tell them that they tried.

By Divemedic, ago

Buy Backs

Not those buybacks. Nope, after selling all of our oil reserves to the Chinese, the US is now planning to buy back 60 million barrels of oil at a future date.

The call for bids on the initial 60 million barrels “will take place in the fall of 2022 to secure delivery in future years when prices are anticipated to be significantly lower than they are today,” according to the press release.

I wonder if the press will investigate just who is making money on this deal. We already know that Hunter Biden is an investor in the company that is buying US oil, and I am wondering if he is an investor in the company that will be selling it back. I would also be interested to know if the deal is still “ten percent for the big guy.”

Can you imagine what the press would have done if Trump had been involved in a deal like this?

By Divemedic, ago

Constitution and Government Employment, continued

On Saturday, I posted that the government can’t fire an employee without due process. That is, a government entity has to follow certain steps before terminating the employment of their employees. Many of you disagreed, but I will share with you why I feel that this is so important:

There is a teacher I know who was terminated in violation of this law. Gerry Buell had been teaching for Lake County schools for over 22 years. He was selected as the county teacher of the year. Just a few months later, he posted on his private Facebook page that he was opposed to gay marriage.

On his personal Facebook account, outside of school time, Buell posted a reaction to New York’s passage of homosexual ‘marriage’ saying he “almost threw up.” He also referred to homosexual unions as sinful and referred to it as part of a “cesspool” of behaviors. The local media got ahold of it.

Just for the record, this is his exact comment:

I’m watching the news, eating dinner when the story about New York okaying same-sex unions came on and I almost threw up. Then they showed two guys kissing after their announcement. If they want to call it a union, go ahead. But don’t insult a man and woman’s marriage by throwing it in the same cesspool of whatever. God will not be mocked. When did this sin become acceptable?

By the way, if one doesn’t like the most recently posted opinion based on biblical principles and God’s laws, then go ahead and unfriend me. I’ll miss you like I miss my kidney stone from 1994. And I will never accept it because God will never accept it. Romans chapter one.

“It was my own personal comment on my own personal time on my own personal computer in my own personal house, exercising what I believed as a social studies teacher to be my First Amendment rights,” he said.

He was 100% correct, but that didn’t matter to the Lake County school system. Some parents filed a complaint with the school superintendent. Shortly afterwards, he was suspended. Two days after being suspended, he was fired for “violating his professional ethics.”

“We took the allegations seriously,” said Chris Patton, a communication officer with Lake County Schools. “All teachers are bound by a code of special ethics (and) this is a code ethics violation investigation.”

According to the school system, what Buell wrote on his private account was disturbing. They claimed that they were especially concerned that gay students at the school might be frightened or intimidated walking into his classroom. Patton also disputed the notion that Buell’s Facebook account is private.

“He has more than 700 friends,” Patton said. “How private is that – really? Social media can be troubling if you don’t respect it and know that just because you think you are in a private realm – it’s not private.”

So, according to the Lake County, Florida school system, whether or not a government employee has the right to free speech depends on how many people are listening.

Patton said the school system has an obligation to take the comments seriously. He said Buell will not be allowed back in the classroom “until we do all the interviews and do a thorough job of looking at everything – past or previous writings.”

To accomplish that, he said people have been sending the school system screenshots of Buell’s Facebook page.

“Just because you think it’s private, other people are viewing it,” Patton said, noting that the teacher’s Facebook page also contained numerous Bible passages.

Buell hired a lawyer, who sent a notice of intent to file suit for terminating him in violation of his First and Fifth Amendment rights. The school caved in. If government employees were “at will,” that never would have worked.

I want you to ask yourselves- just who in government service needs to have their Constitutional rights protected? In these days of school boards shutting down discussion and declaring that parents are terrorists, do you think that leftist teachers have any fear of being fired? Or do you think it is conservative teachers?

I myself was fired from that same exact school. In October of 2016, we were told to discuss the gay and lesbian lifestyle* and its benefits in the classroom. Click on the link to see the actual handout we were given. I refused. Less than a month later, I was attacked in my classroom by a violent student.

I had worked for that school for exactly one week less than a year, so I was still on “probation.” I could be fired for any reason. I was placed on paid leave. Two months later, the school system told me that, if I resigned, they would not pursue any other actions and would simply tell future employers that I had resigned. The union wanted me to fight. I didn’t think the job was worth fighting for, so I quit.

A month later, the school system tried to have my teaching license revoked by pressing formal charges with the state. Had they been successful, my medical license would also have been revoked. They accused me of attacking the student and even tried insinuating that I was a pervert that was attracted to the teenaged girls in my class.

I wound up spending several thousand dollars on a lawyer, got a hearing, and won my case. Throughout the process, the school hid evidence, manufactured evidence, and played every dirty trick they could. My attorney was livid. After the administrative hearing was over, he wrote a letter to the director of Florida’s DOE, telling them that he had never seen the kind of outrageous behavior from a school system before.

Be careful what you wish for. Remove constitutional protection from government jobs, and the left will be free to eliminate the conservative minority.

* Note that I mentioned this in 2016. This grooming thing has been going on since before Trump was elected. Note also that the CRT stuff has been brewing since at least 2020. I mean to say that both grooming and CRT have been in our schools for at least a decade, perhaps longer.

If it weren’t for the constitutional protections that government employees have, the only voices our children would be hearing are the ones grooming them for the left. It’s important.

By Divemedic, ago

The Rest of the Story

Radio personality Paul Harvey used to do a bit called “The Rest of the Story” where he would tell a story. The end of the story would have a surprise ending, revealing a connection that the listener wouldn’t suspect. He would then close with the tagline: “Now you know… the rest of the story.” In homage to that show:

Stop me if you have heard this story before. New York police attempted to arrest a 21 year old man for driving with a suspended license. His 30 year old brother tries to physically prevent the arrest. Before it is over, 16 cops wind up involved. At the end of the day, the 30 year old brother winds up dead, and two cops are injured, one with a broken kneecap, and one with fractures in his back. The year was 1978, and the man’s name was Arthur Miller.

The son of that 30 year old man, Lamor Miller-Whitehead, was only six months old when his father died. Whitehead was arrested in a $2 million identity theft scam in 2006. When he was arrested, he was wearing a long mink coat like some bad 1970’s stereotype.

Whitehead and former girlfriend Valerie Rodriguez had access to personal identifying information of customers of the Honda dealership where she worked. They created fake email accounts and voicemail boxes using stolen identifying information, filled out fraudulent loan applications, and bought cars with the proceeds.

He was was convicted of one count of Scheme to Defraud in the First Degree, one count of Attempted Grand Larceny in the Second Degree, thirteen counts of Identity Theft in the First Degree, and two counts of Identity Theft in the Third Degree. He was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

He served five before being granted parole. (He claims that his conviction was overturned, but I can find no evidence of that. In fact, every one of the many appeals that he filed was denied, at least that I could find.)

Whitehead founded his own church when he got out of prison in 2013, and gave himself the title of “Bishop” just two years later. As the leader of this church, it appears as though the charity most favored by Whitehead’s church was Whitehead himself; he regularly drove the church owned vehicles: a Maserati, a $350,000 Rolls-Royce, and a Bentley. His church has over a million online followers, who he regularly urges to vote for politicians that he favors.

Whitehead is also a “community organizer” and has donated large sums to political causes. One politician that he favors is close friend Hizzoner Eric Adams, the mayor of NYC. In fact, he has called the mayor his “mentor” and is frequently seen with him.

It’s obvious what is happening here, at least to me. This guy is a scam artist, a convicted felon, and con man. He is using his fake church to con people out of money, then donating it to politicians so that they will look the other way. This is what community organizing is: criminals donating dirty money to corrupt politicians. If it seems like the criminals are running this country, that’s because they are.

Still, let’s stick with Whitehead’s story. So here we have a convict parolee who is running a fake church while driving multiple cars worth $300K apiece, while wearing ten thousand dollar outfits adorned with hundreds of thousands of dollars in jewelry.

Whitehead and his wife

That’s why I really don’t care that members of his flock decided to redistribute some of his property at gunpoint during a livestream of a church service.

Now you know the rest of the story.

By Divemedic, ago