Fallout

Since nuclear radiation appears to be the preparedness theme of the week, let’s take a look at what it means to survive a nuclear event. After the initial blast and fires, the biggest risk is radioactive fallout. All fallout is, is ash and other products of combustion that have had pieces of the bomb itself attached to them. These pieces are going to be radioactive isotopes, and this radiation is produced as unstable isotopes decay into more stable ones. This decay process gives off energy in the form of radiation. There are over 300 different fission products that may result from a fission reaction. Many of these are radioactive with widely differing half-lives. The half lives of some of these are measured in fractions of a second, while a few are long enough that the materials can be a hazard for months or years. Their principal mode of decay is by the emission of beta and gamma radiation.

We measure radiation in the form of RADs (Radiation Absorbed Dose). This relates to the amount of energy actually absorbed in some material, and is used for any type of radiation and any material. One rad is defined as the absorption of 100 ergs per gram of material. The unit rad can be used for any type of radiation, but it does not describe the biological effects of the different radiations. For that, we use REM (Roentgen Equivalent for Man). The metric version of the REM is a sievert (1 sievert = 100 REM).

A dose of approximately 100 REM will cause mild radiation sickness, and will increase your chances of premature death from cancer by about 6%. Severe illness occurs at 200 REM, and half of those who are exposed to 300 REM will die within days. A dose of 800 REM is fatal to everyone within hours, even with prompt medical care.

About 5% of the energy released in a nuclear detonation is transmitted in the form of initial neutron and gamma radiation. The neutrons result almost exclusively from the energy producing fission and fusion reactions, while the initial gamma radiation includes that arising from these reactions as well as that resulting from the decay of short-lived fission products.

The good news about fallout is that the isotopes that produce the most radiation also tend to decay the most quickly. The rule of thumb that is generally applied here is called the 7:10 rule. Let’s look at that:

If fallout of 1,000 REM per hour arrives at your location 1 hour after the blast, you have to be sheltered or you will receive a fatal dose in less than an hour. The 7:10 rule states that after seven hours, the rate will drop to one tenth, or 100 REM per hour. In another 7*7 hours (forty-nine hours) it will have decayed down to 10 REM per hour. Then 7*49 hours (~ 2 weeks), it will be down to 1 REM per hour. Once the rate drops to 0.5 REM per hour, you can leave your shelter, which would take about 25 days.

Shelter is where we are screwed here in Florida. At least in other areas of the country, there are basements. Shelter means being shielded from radiation, and that means a couple of things: mass, and not ingesting radioactive material by either breathing it or consuming it in food and water. More on shelter later.

Playing by Your Rules

The claim is that DeSantis is being a hypocrite when he backs trucker protests that intend to block roads, because he backed and signed an anti-rioting law that stiffened penalties for protesters who blocked roads and even gave some legal protection to drivers who ran them over. The Federal courts, however struck down the law as being unconstitutional.

I don’t think that it makes you a hypocrite to play by the rules that have been put in place, even if you disagree with those rules. DeSantis tried to make road blocking protests illegal and was overruled by the court. Since those are now the rules, it is not hypocritical to play by those rules.

Obama Was Wrong

Listen here as Obama makes what turns out to have been a monumentally stupid statement.

Romney was quick to dunk on the former Kenyan President:

Let me say that I am entirely opposed to the US getting involved militarily in this affair. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t have found a way to intervene. The problem here is that the Democratic party was so busy using Russia for political gain that they didn’t bother doing their job with regards to a foreign policy that would have prevented all of this.

From Hillary and her stupid reset button from Office Depot, to the use of “Russia collusion” as a fake boogie man for election tampering, the Democrats have been pushing us towards a war with Russia for more than 20 years. Now they are finally on the brink of achieving their goals.

Our nation has what I consider to be a distinct disadvantage in our nuclear forces against Russia.

Strategic nuclear warheads come in two distinct targeting packages: counterforce, and countervalue. Counterforce warhead targeting is aimed at destroying the enemy’s nuclear forces along with command and control, while countervalue is aimed at cities, powerplants, and other things of economic value.

Because nuclear forces are protected in bunkers and other hardened shelters, counterforce requires a warhead that is either very accurate, or very large. A miss of even 200 feet can be enough for a nuclear warhead to fail to destroy a targeted missile in its hardened silo. Submarine launched missiles tend to be less accurate than silo launched missiles, and bombers take MUCH longer to reach their targets than missiles, so land based ICBMs tend to be used in the counterforce role.

Biden foolishly released information about our nuclear forces to the entire world back in October, because he wants to be “transparent” about our capabilities and because Democrats are generally stupid when it comes to conflict and the military.

Russia has just shy of 1,200 warheads mounted on 310 ICBMs. The United States has 449 active missile silos with 500 warheads. That’s it for counter force- we are outgunned nearly 2.5:1 by the Russians.

The balance shifts slightly in favor of the US when we talk about countervalue. The US has 1100 warheads mounted on 239 submarine launched missiles, compared to Russia’s 816 warheads and 176 submarine launched missiles.

Bombers are an odd category. I don’t really think that they will be of much use as counterforce, because it just takes so long for them to arrive over the target. The only way I see them being of use is if they are in flight for hours before missiles are launched. In any case, the US has 118 nuclear capable bombers, with Russia having 68. The number of warheads that each bomber can carry will depend on many factors.

This kind of imbalance will at some point make Russia think that a nuclear exchange is winnable. The 80’s are calling, and there is an idiot answering the phone.

Sucking Rubber

I served in the military during the cold war. Back in those days, US forces were required to have at least one exercise per month in NBC (Nuclear/Biological/Chemical) warfare. We referred to these drills as “sucking rubber.”

In true military style, we could never just have an exercise. Nope, our command had to come up with bizarre scenarios that led to the drill that day. At the beginning of the exercise, the background information would be read to us, as if it were the prologue to some dystopian novel. The problem was that the back story was always far fetched and horribly written. The entire last two years sounds like that:

Red forces have invaded the nation of Goodistan. Air, missile, and ground attacks have been occuring. At sea, several merchant ships have been struck by missiles. In protest, NATO forces have begun to mobilize. The president of the Red Forces nation has increased the alert level of his nuclear forces. In response, US command authority has alerted all commands to be prepared for unrestricted warfare against Red forces.

The commander of Blue forces has warned of intelligence reports that a nearby submarine is armed with nuclear missiles that threaten this force. Now set MOPP level two.

Shit. Today’s drill is sucking rubber.

That is what this sounds like.

Childish Magical Thinking

I am at work today and was having a conversation with one of my employees. She is a 20 something lesbian who claims that she and her wife feel sorry for Ukrainians and thinks that Russia needs to be stopped. I told her that I don’t think that the US needs to be solving everyone’s problems, and that it isn’t worth Amercans dying and fighting to be the world’s savior.

She responded by saying that, “I agree that we don’t need to get the US involved in a war, but SOMEONE should stop them from doing that to the Ukrainians.”

I asked her if she were willing to join the military to go fight and perhaps die to stop them. She replied “Of course not, but someone should stop them.”

I asked her, short of military force, how that would happen. She replied that we could negotiate and if that doesn’t work we could take them to court, or something.

“Hans, bubby, I am your white knight.”

The left has no idea about any kind of reason beyond Kindergarten level rules for dealing with others.

Reminder

Reuters is reporting that Russian actors are threatening cyber attacks on US infrastructure. In keeping with my war warning from December, be prepared for a loss of cell service, landline phone service, Internet service, GPS, and other services like power and water.

I told my wife that, should communications be lost while we are separated, she is to go home and stay until I return. It does no good for us to be out searching for each other if power, coms, and GPS are out.

LOL. She told me to keep my voice down because she didn’t want others to think I was a paranoid person.

Settled Science is Changing

As the midterm elections approach and it becomes obvious just how much cheating it will take to overcome a 30% approval rating, the CDC has announced that the science on COVID has evolved again.

Under current guidelines, some 95% of U.S. counties are considered areas of substantial or high transmission, meaning masks are recommended. The new guidelines would remove those designations, meaning the vast majority of Americans will no longer live in areas where indoor masking in public is recommended.